Disc: There is nothing truly atypical on the maps as we look forward. The pattern looks very typical for early March. Beyond a week out, there could be more persistent below normal temps.
Currently: Alberta clipper system over the High Plains dives ESE tonight. This will bring a brief period of precip and a period of much cooler temps to the state.
Tonight: There should be a period of pcpn centered around midnight. Ptyps could be everything but the kitchen sink. Fortunately, pcpn is light and temps are AOA freezing, so any snow or sleet accums would be nil to minimal. I went close to guidance for temps, w/a few local adjustments here or there, mainly to spread out the range a bit. Lows generally near 30, maybe mid 30s along the immediate S coast. Winds could gust 30-35 MPH w/the clipper tonight.
Tomorrow: Cooler and fair wx. Morning breezes diminish as the day progresses. For temps, I generally followed guidance for most of the state, but I lowered it a bit in the NW hills. So we have highs near 40, except mid to upper 30s in the NW hills.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: A chilly period. Even though I went a bit above guidance due to favorable wind direction for downsloping, it's still chilly and nobody in the state reaches 40.
Long Term: Generally a rainier and warmer period.
Saturday: Cold air prob hangs tough thru the entire day at the sfc. Clouds increase, but for now cautiously leaving pcpn out of the day period. I generally went a bit below guidance and even moreso N of I 84, where sfc cold may really hold, due to being closer to the sfc high. High temps should generally be near 40, but I lowered them to the mid to upper 30s N of I 84.
Sunday: Much warmer. Hard to tell how much pcpn we actually get. Trying to stay ahead of the trends here, as guidance has shifted drier. I do have some chance POPs for the AM, as a batch of showers could scoot by. But the rest of the day should be dry. Temps are very tricky, depending on wind direction, pcpn, and cloud cover. W/all those complicating factors, I went below guidance, then smoothed out the ranges to call it a generic mid to upper 50s. It could definitely be warmer, but we'll wait and see on that.
Monday: Warm, but we're going to call it mostly cloudy. I have likely-cat POPs by the end of the day, as a potent sys should bring rain, some of it heavy, to the area, beginning right after dark. I went pretty close to the guidance on temps, lower S coast, warmer in the I 91. Generally mid 50s for most, but near 50 along the S coast and some upper 50s in the I 91.
Tuesday: Cooler, but not real cold, and quite nice, after any AM clouds clear out. There is a bit of cold air advection, so I did go under guidance, but I went fairly close along I 91, so I have highs in the mid 40s, except some upper 40s along I 91.
Wednesday: Sunny and nice. W/it being so far out and nothing to really sway me much, basically just copied guidance for highs for now. Upper 40s thruout the state should suffice.
Longer Range: There is a possibility that the ridging near AK strengthens even more, which would send anomalously cold air into the CONUS. Whether or not we get more snow is TBD, but you need the cold first this time of yr, and it looks like we will have that. So we'll see where it goes from here!
Only one graphic today, and that is of the Monday night rain. Low press nearly right over the area, good forcing and high moisture content are a good recipe for quick-hitting heavy rain, if everything holds.
Currently: Alberta clipper system over the High Plains dives ESE tonight. This will bring a brief period of precip and a period of much cooler temps to the state.
Tonight: There should be a period of pcpn centered around midnight. Ptyps could be everything but the kitchen sink. Fortunately, pcpn is light and temps are AOA freezing, so any snow or sleet accums would be nil to minimal. I went close to guidance for temps, w/a few local adjustments here or there, mainly to spread out the range a bit. Lows generally near 30, maybe mid 30s along the immediate S coast. Winds could gust 30-35 MPH w/the clipper tonight.
Tomorrow: Cooler and fair wx. Morning breezes diminish as the day progresses. For temps, I generally followed guidance for most of the state, but I lowered it a bit in the NW hills. So we have highs near 40, except mid to upper 30s in the NW hills.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: A chilly period. Even though I went a bit above guidance due to favorable wind direction for downsloping, it's still chilly and nobody in the state reaches 40.
Long Term: Generally a rainier and warmer period.
Saturday: Cold air prob hangs tough thru the entire day at the sfc. Clouds increase, but for now cautiously leaving pcpn out of the day period. I generally went a bit below guidance and even moreso N of I 84, where sfc cold may really hold, due to being closer to the sfc high. High temps should generally be near 40, but I lowered them to the mid to upper 30s N of I 84.
Sunday: Much warmer. Hard to tell how much pcpn we actually get. Trying to stay ahead of the trends here, as guidance has shifted drier. I do have some chance POPs for the AM, as a batch of showers could scoot by. But the rest of the day should be dry. Temps are very tricky, depending on wind direction, pcpn, and cloud cover. W/all those complicating factors, I went below guidance, then smoothed out the ranges to call it a generic mid to upper 50s. It could definitely be warmer, but we'll wait and see on that.
Monday: Warm, but we're going to call it mostly cloudy. I have likely-cat POPs by the end of the day, as a potent sys should bring rain, some of it heavy, to the area, beginning right after dark. I went pretty close to the guidance on temps, lower S coast, warmer in the I 91. Generally mid 50s for most, but near 50 along the S coast and some upper 50s in the I 91.
Tuesday: Cooler, but not real cold, and quite nice, after any AM clouds clear out. There is a bit of cold air advection, so I did go under guidance, but I went fairly close along I 91, so I have highs in the mid 40s, except some upper 40s along I 91.
Wednesday: Sunny and nice. W/it being so far out and nothing to really sway me much, basically just copied guidance for highs for now. Upper 40s thruout the state should suffice.
Longer Range: There is a possibility that the ridging near AK strengthens even more, which would send anomalously cold air into the CONUS. Whether or not we get more snow is TBD, but you need the cold first this time of yr, and it looks like we will have that. So we'll see where it goes from here!
Only one graphic today, and that is of the Monday night rain. Low press nearly right over the area, good forcing and high moisture content are a good recipe for quick-hitting heavy rain, if everything holds.
That's all for now! Take care and enjoy your week!
-GP!
-GP!
