Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer, but September 1 is the start of Meteorological Fall! Fall arrived early this year, and for much of August we have been in a persistently dry and cooler than normal period. It has led to fantastic conditions overall, and now that unofficial summer is over, let's take a look at what was and look at the week ahead!
Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer, but September 1 is the start of Meteorological Fall! Fall arrived early this year, and for much of August we have been in a persistently dry and cooler than normal period. It has led to fantastic conditions overall, and now that unofficial summer is over, let's take a look at what was and look at the week ahead!
Above: the Climate Prediction Center forecast for the 6-10 day period in September, fall conditions will continue to settle in as we move through the first 1/3 of the month. Perhaps we get warmer with less troughing afterward, but fall is here.
An odd August and Meteorological Summer
Before turning to the forecast for the week ahead--which is a fairly mundane one, let's take a look back at August and the summer that was.
First, August was odd. It's not hyperbole to say that our region has been a blowtorch in recent years. In fact, we've finished every month above normal for nearly two years. At Hartford (BDL) we broke the streak. August was the first time in 20 months that we finished a month below normal, which is truly extraordinary. August finished 2.9 degrees below normal at BDL, which is hard to do during the summer, with 22 days below normal. At Bridgeport, which represents the coastline of the state in weather records, the station finished an even 2.0 degrees below normal.
There was an even greater discrepancy in rainfall, however. Both stations were drier than normal, but while Hartford finished below normal with 2.45 inches of rain, Bridgeport barely got a drop. Literally. Bridgeport only received .08" of rain. Death Valley, California received over 4x the amount of rainfall. Bridgeport not only shattered its record for driest August on record, it also obliterated its record for the driest summer on record. Records here go back to 1948.
Once again, our hottest high temperatures happened in June, followed by a hot and oppressively July. This year, we also saw a surprising shift to fall starting immediately in August. Much like last year, rainfall quickly became an issue. Last fall we had brush fires across the state as a result of a historically dry period. It's too soon to say how our summer will impact our fall, and winter.
An odd August and Meteorological Summer
Before turning to the forecast for the week ahead--which is a fairly mundane one, let's take a look back at August and the summer that was.
First, August was odd. It's not hyperbole to say that our region has been a blowtorch in recent years. In fact, we've finished every month above normal for nearly two years. At Hartford (BDL) we broke the streak. August was the first time in 20 months that we finished a month below normal, which is truly extraordinary. August finished 2.9 degrees below normal at BDL, which is hard to do during the summer, with 22 days below normal. At Bridgeport, which represents the coastline of the state in weather records, the station finished an even 2.0 degrees below normal.
There was an even greater discrepancy in rainfall, however. Both stations were drier than normal, but while Hartford finished below normal with 2.45 inches of rain, Bridgeport barely got a drop. Literally. Bridgeport only received .08" of rain. Death Valley, California received over 4x the amount of rainfall. Bridgeport not only shattered its record for driest August on record, it also obliterated its record for the driest summer on record. Records here go back to 1948.
Once again, our hottest high temperatures happened in June, followed by a hot and oppressively July. This year, we also saw a surprising shift to fall starting immediately in August. Much like last year, rainfall quickly became an issue. Last fall we had brush fires across the state as a result of a historically dry period. It's too soon to say how our summer will impact our fall, and winter.
Above: the percent of normal precipitation for Meteorological Summer. It has been wetter in northern CT, but not by much. If this continued into fall drought would not be far behind.
Fall Climatology
Fall is a transition season. As I wrote a few weeks ago, we may start speeding up the march toward fall in terms of our climate normals by August 15, but it goes into a full on trot in September. Fall conditions may have arrived earlier than normal, but as we lose more and more daylight the global pattern begins its annual change and we see more conducive conditions for troughing, which usually means more cold air intrusions and coastal storms.
Hartford (BDL Normals)
September 1 High/Low--81/59
September 15 High/Low--76/54
October 1 High/Low--70/48
October 15 High/Low--64/43
November 1 High/Low--57/37
November 15 High/Low--52/33
November 30 High/Low--46/29
Bridgeport (BDR Normals)
September 1 High/Low--80/64
September 15 High/Low--76/60
October 1 High/Low--70/54
October 15 High/Low--65/49
November 1 High/Low--59/43
November 15 High/Low--54/39
November 30 High/Low--49/34
At Hartford, since 2000 first freeze usually occurs October 20. At Bridgeport, since 2000 the first freeze usually occurs November 6. A freeze ends the growing season, and we usually have frosts in the few weeks ahead of a first freeze. These dates are earlier and later for the cold spots in hill towns and immediate coastal locations. First flakes can happen as early as October, but measurable snowfall isn't usually likely until later in November.
Enjoy the daylight while you can. While the sun sets at 7:23pm on September 1, by September 15 it is 6:59pm, and by September 30 it is 6:33pm!
The Week Ahead
Today may have been less than perfect, but it was still dry. The week ahead brings mostly dry conditions but will have some minor rain chances.
Tuesday-Thursday
This period of the week looks excellent. We're right back to seasonable conditions with ample sunshine and dry conditions.
Friday-Sunday
The weekend is not looking as nice as the one we just had, but I am not sold on a dreary and wet one. By Friday, another trough will be moving into the region. This will lead to a front that may bring showers on Friday and a reinforcing shot on Saturday which may also bring showers. While the trough is still coming, which means showers are possible, the models have waffled on the extent and timing of rain showers. For now, I would expect the greatest chance of rain on Friday, with a lesser chance Saturday and low chance Sunday.
Fall Climatology
Fall is a transition season. As I wrote a few weeks ago, we may start speeding up the march toward fall in terms of our climate normals by August 15, but it goes into a full on trot in September. Fall conditions may have arrived earlier than normal, but as we lose more and more daylight the global pattern begins its annual change and we see more conducive conditions for troughing, which usually means more cold air intrusions and coastal storms.
Hartford (BDL Normals)
September 1 High/Low--81/59
September 15 High/Low--76/54
October 1 High/Low--70/48
October 15 High/Low--64/43
November 1 High/Low--57/37
November 15 High/Low--52/33
November 30 High/Low--46/29
Bridgeport (BDR Normals)
September 1 High/Low--80/64
September 15 High/Low--76/60
October 1 High/Low--70/54
October 15 High/Low--65/49
November 1 High/Low--59/43
November 15 High/Low--54/39
November 30 High/Low--49/34
At Hartford, since 2000 first freeze usually occurs October 20. At Bridgeport, since 2000 the first freeze usually occurs November 6. A freeze ends the growing season, and we usually have frosts in the few weeks ahead of a first freeze. These dates are earlier and later for the cold spots in hill towns and immediate coastal locations. First flakes can happen as early as October, but measurable snowfall isn't usually likely until later in November.
Enjoy the daylight while you can. While the sun sets at 7:23pm on September 1, by September 15 it is 6:59pm, and by September 30 it is 6:33pm!
The Week Ahead
Today may have been less than perfect, but it was still dry. The week ahead brings mostly dry conditions but will have some minor rain chances.
Tuesday-Thursday
This period of the week looks excellent. We're right back to seasonable conditions with ample sunshine and dry conditions.
Friday-Sunday
The weekend is not looking as nice as the one we just had, but I am not sold on a dreary and wet one. By Friday, another trough will be moving into the region. This will lead to a front that may bring showers on Friday and a reinforcing shot on Saturday which may also bring showers. While the trough is still coming, which means showers are possible, the models have waffled on the extent and timing of rain showers. For now, I would expect the greatest chance of rain on Friday, with a lesser chance Saturday and low chance Sunday.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with rain showers possible. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with rain showers possible. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
