More unsettled wx should dominate the next four days or so. We are in the midst of seeing a pattern reversal back to cool, beginning later Saturday. That's not to say there won't be a warm day or two mixed in, esp if a storm tracks to the west, but the majority of days will be below norm on temps.
Currently: High pressure stretching from our area up into Quebec sheltering us from any bad wx, but it is in the process of pulling out. Strong lows were analyzed from ND to WI, with fronts attached to them. A cold front extended from Chicago to Houston, and a warm front extended from WI to the mtns of NC.
Tonight: Combination of developing warm air advection and increased clouds should really keep temps in check tonight. Temps should probably not move much from their daytime highs, and may even be a deg or two warmer when we wake up. A round of widely scattered showers is possible at any time w/the warm front, but most of the night should be dry.
Tomorrow: By the time we wake up, heavier and steadier rain should be either over us, esp SW folks, or just on our doorstep. Heavy rain w/imbedded thunder will be likely for the first half of the day and may linger a bit longer into the afternoon than originally thought, esp N & E CT. Temps are very tricky, and depend on factors, such as if it rains steadily or if there is an end/break, and how fast cold air advection commences. W/rain looking like a good bet for most of the day, I have basically ignored temp guidance, which generally assumes a perfect diurnal trend, and will just go w/"near steady temps" during the day tomorrow. In reality, they'll probably spike a few degs w/high temps likely occurring just before noon W CT and just after noon E CT. But there's no need to be so cute, esp since it will be raining and people really won't be able to "enjoy the warmth".
As we get post-frontal tomorrow night, a period of strong winds is likely, w/gusts exceeding 40 MPH, as cold air rushes in.
Saturday is rather interesting. A secondary cold front approaches, but at the last moment, a weak coastal low will form. Now, this low forms a bit too far N & E to have major direct impacts, esp for SW CT. However, the proximity of the low will allow for enhanced rainfall along this cold front. What would ordinarily be just a sprinkle has turned into a period of steady rain Sat afternoon, w/higher totals NE CT. I've generally gone fairly close to guidance temps, which suggest highs in the upper 50s. But depending on the evolution of this system, I may be too warm.
As this system pulls out, it will deepen rapidly as it heads off into Northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will increase dramatically behind it, and we could see gusts in excess of 45 MPH later Sat into Sun morning. Wind advisories will be possible, esp for NE CT.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sunday, expect varying amounts of clouds. There could be a stray sprinkle or flurry in the NW hills from LES streamers. Otherwise, winds gradually diminish. No POPS in the fcst. Any precip would be a few drops or flakes and not worthy of POPs. For temps, I went close to guidance. Highs generally near 50, maybe a deg or two warmer along the I 91 corridor.
For Monday, an Alberta Clipper system heads down. It is unclear how much precip there will be w/this, as models are waffling with that. If precip is light, it will likely be rain. Any heavier precip could mix over to sleet or snow, as upper levels are cold. It would not be totally out of the question for very minor accums (less than an inch) at elevations over 1,000 feet, but I am non-committal on this at the moment, since models are unsure how much precip actually falls. I've gone several deg below guidance on temps, due to the NBM not correctly capturing cloud cover. Highs only in the mid to upper 40s!
As the clipper pulls away, there could be wind gusts up to 35 MPH in its wake w/a brief pulse of cold air advection later Mon into early Tue.
For Tuesday, clearing skies, gradually diminishing winds, not much going on. I went close to guidance on temps, w/a few local adjustments. Cold again, w/highs generally in the upper 40s.
For Wednesday, fair skies and warmer temps, as high pressure moves offshore. Guidance temps again generally accepted, w/a few local adjustments. I do like the warmer guidance sets, w/good warm air advection. Highs surge into the mid 50s.
Finally, for Thursday, it could get warmer than I am indicating here, but for now, I'll stay conservative, and follow the guidance, as there could be clouds increasing or onshore flow mitigating warming and it is too early to tell right now. So we'll go upper 50s, w/the potential for near 60 along I 91 for now. A cold front approaches, but any precip should probably hold off until after this period, so I am not mentioning anything for now. Temps turn sharply colder thereafter.
The long range looks to feature predominately below normal temperatures w/the potential increasing for Arctic air intrusions as the month goes on.
Now, let's look at two quick short term graphics. First is Friday morning's frontal line. This map, valid noon tomorrow, shows heavy rain across the area, along a broken line of t-storms. Then let's look at Sat afternoon. For Sat's map, you see the potential for another shot of rain. It would not be totally inconceivable for a few snow flakes to mix in over the NW Hills!
Currently: High pressure stretching from our area up into Quebec sheltering us from any bad wx, but it is in the process of pulling out. Strong lows were analyzed from ND to WI, with fronts attached to them. A cold front extended from Chicago to Houston, and a warm front extended from WI to the mtns of NC.
Tonight: Combination of developing warm air advection and increased clouds should really keep temps in check tonight. Temps should probably not move much from their daytime highs, and may even be a deg or two warmer when we wake up. A round of widely scattered showers is possible at any time w/the warm front, but most of the night should be dry.
Tomorrow: By the time we wake up, heavier and steadier rain should be either over us, esp SW folks, or just on our doorstep. Heavy rain w/imbedded thunder will be likely for the first half of the day and may linger a bit longer into the afternoon than originally thought, esp N & E CT. Temps are very tricky, and depend on factors, such as if it rains steadily or if there is an end/break, and how fast cold air advection commences. W/rain looking like a good bet for most of the day, I have basically ignored temp guidance, which generally assumes a perfect diurnal trend, and will just go w/"near steady temps" during the day tomorrow. In reality, they'll probably spike a few degs w/high temps likely occurring just before noon W CT and just after noon E CT. But there's no need to be so cute, esp since it will be raining and people really won't be able to "enjoy the warmth".
As we get post-frontal tomorrow night, a period of strong winds is likely, w/gusts exceeding 40 MPH, as cold air rushes in.
Saturday is rather interesting. A secondary cold front approaches, but at the last moment, a weak coastal low will form. Now, this low forms a bit too far N & E to have major direct impacts, esp for SW CT. However, the proximity of the low will allow for enhanced rainfall along this cold front. What would ordinarily be just a sprinkle has turned into a period of steady rain Sat afternoon, w/higher totals NE CT. I've generally gone fairly close to guidance temps, which suggest highs in the upper 50s. But depending on the evolution of this system, I may be too warm.
As this system pulls out, it will deepen rapidly as it heads off into Northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will increase dramatically behind it, and we could see gusts in excess of 45 MPH later Sat into Sun morning. Wind advisories will be possible, esp for NE CT.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sunday, expect varying amounts of clouds. There could be a stray sprinkle or flurry in the NW hills from LES streamers. Otherwise, winds gradually diminish. No POPS in the fcst. Any precip would be a few drops or flakes and not worthy of POPs. For temps, I went close to guidance. Highs generally near 50, maybe a deg or two warmer along the I 91 corridor.
For Monday, an Alberta Clipper system heads down. It is unclear how much precip there will be w/this, as models are waffling with that. If precip is light, it will likely be rain. Any heavier precip could mix over to sleet or snow, as upper levels are cold. It would not be totally out of the question for very minor accums (less than an inch) at elevations over 1,000 feet, but I am non-committal on this at the moment, since models are unsure how much precip actually falls. I've gone several deg below guidance on temps, due to the NBM not correctly capturing cloud cover. Highs only in the mid to upper 40s!
As the clipper pulls away, there could be wind gusts up to 35 MPH in its wake w/a brief pulse of cold air advection later Mon into early Tue.
For Tuesday, clearing skies, gradually diminishing winds, not much going on. I went close to guidance on temps, w/a few local adjustments. Cold again, w/highs generally in the upper 40s.
For Wednesday, fair skies and warmer temps, as high pressure moves offshore. Guidance temps again generally accepted, w/a few local adjustments. I do like the warmer guidance sets, w/good warm air advection. Highs surge into the mid 50s.
Finally, for Thursday, it could get warmer than I am indicating here, but for now, I'll stay conservative, and follow the guidance, as there could be clouds increasing or onshore flow mitigating warming and it is too early to tell right now. So we'll go upper 50s, w/the potential for near 60 along I 91 for now. A cold front approaches, but any precip should probably hold off until after this period, so I am not mentioning anything for now. Temps turn sharply colder thereafter.
The long range looks to feature predominately below normal temperatures w/the potential increasing for Arctic air intrusions as the month goes on.
Now, let's look at two quick short term graphics. First is Friday morning's frontal line. This map, valid noon tomorrow, shows heavy rain across the area, along a broken line of t-storms. Then let's look at Sat afternoon. For Sat's map, you see the potential for another shot of rain. It would not be totally inconceivable for a few snow flakes to mix in over the NW Hills!
Anyway, that's all for now! I'll see you again next week!
-GP!
-GP!
