Disc: If you don't like this weather, wait a few days and we'll gradually head out of it. Until then, we have to take what we have.
Currently: The first of our two to three part storm was centered very near Dover, DE. While most of the steady rain out ahead of the system is in the process of ending or has ended, light rain and drizzle will remain on and off most of the day and into the evening, due to onshore flow.
Tonight: Not much change. Lots of clouds and areas of light rain and drizzle. Don't think there will be too much fog, as winds stay up. I rode the guidance for temps, as there is modest warm air advection and I can't see temps dropping a lot tonight. Look for lows generally 40-45, w/a few warmer spots in the urban centers.
Tomorrow: While most of the steadier and heavier rain will hold off until late in the day and evening, chances for stray showers and thunderstorms steadily increase during the day. Although the warm front will approach, I don't think it ever makes it thru during the day. So for daytime temps, I undercut guidance and have generally upper 40s. Winds will increase, w/some gusts up to 40 MPH possible.
I am adding a period for tomorrow night to detail what should happen. Temps may surge 5-10 deg ahead of the cold front, as we briefly get into the warm sector. There could also be a period of very heavy rain w/imbedded thunder as the front swings thru. I am not expecting any svr wx, as we don't get warm sectored long enough. Pcpn should rapidly shut off after midnight, as the front moves thru.
Long Term (Fri and beyond): This period is generally quiet, w/the main focus being an upper level low on Sat.
Fri should be a nice day between systems. Generally followed guidance for temps, which yields highs in the low 60s.
On Sat, an upper level low will rotate over the state and should produce scattered to numerous showers. W/a cold pool aloft, any heavier showers could produce small hail or maybe even sleet. i went a bit below guidance on temps, given the cold pool aloft. I have highs generally 50-55, but temps could drop quickly under any showers. It will also be quite windy, with some gusts to 35 MPH possible.
On Sun, a brisk and chilly air mass will be left in the wake of the upper level low. I went a bit below guidance for most places, since the models prob do not capture cold air advection all that well, except near I 91, where the combo of downsloping and valley warming will help. So I have highs generally around 50, except a bit warmer along I 91. A gusty wind to 35-40 MPH will add to the chill.
Thereafter, pleasant wx w/a steady warming trend is expected. Since there is really no sensible wx to speak of, I have grouped Mon-Wed as one group. W/such a tranquil period expected, I went very close to guidance throughout, except just a touch cooler on Wed, due to uncertainty as to whether clouds arrive ahead of the next sys. I did make a few modifications due to local climate effects. So the high temps I am forecasting are Mon: Near 60, except cooler along the S coast, w/some sea breeze potential, Tue: mid to upper 60s, and Wed near 70, except cooler along the S coast, again w/some sea breeze potential.
For today's graphics, I have included a graphic for tomorrow night and one for Sat's upper level low. After that, there won't be all that much wx to speak of for a while. You can see the squall line tomorrow night and then the upper level low Sat afternoon producing widespread showers across the NE CONUS.
Currently: The first of our two to three part storm was centered very near Dover, DE. While most of the steady rain out ahead of the system is in the process of ending or has ended, light rain and drizzle will remain on and off most of the day and into the evening, due to onshore flow.
Tonight: Not much change. Lots of clouds and areas of light rain and drizzle. Don't think there will be too much fog, as winds stay up. I rode the guidance for temps, as there is modest warm air advection and I can't see temps dropping a lot tonight. Look for lows generally 40-45, w/a few warmer spots in the urban centers.
Tomorrow: While most of the steadier and heavier rain will hold off until late in the day and evening, chances for stray showers and thunderstorms steadily increase during the day. Although the warm front will approach, I don't think it ever makes it thru during the day. So for daytime temps, I undercut guidance and have generally upper 40s. Winds will increase, w/some gusts up to 40 MPH possible.
I am adding a period for tomorrow night to detail what should happen. Temps may surge 5-10 deg ahead of the cold front, as we briefly get into the warm sector. There could also be a period of very heavy rain w/imbedded thunder as the front swings thru. I am not expecting any svr wx, as we don't get warm sectored long enough. Pcpn should rapidly shut off after midnight, as the front moves thru.
Long Term (Fri and beyond): This period is generally quiet, w/the main focus being an upper level low on Sat.
Fri should be a nice day between systems. Generally followed guidance for temps, which yields highs in the low 60s.
On Sat, an upper level low will rotate over the state and should produce scattered to numerous showers. W/a cold pool aloft, any heavier showers could produce small hail or maybe even sleet. i went a bit below guidance on temps, given the cold pool aloft. I have highs generally 50-55, but temps could drop quickly under any showers. It will also be quite windy, with some gusts to 35 MPH possible.
On Sun, a brisk and chilly air mass will be left in the wake of the upper level low. I went a bit below guidance for most places, since the models prob do not capture cold air advection all that well, except near I 91, where the combo of downsloping and valley warming will help. So I have highs generally around 50, except a bit warmer along I 91. A gusty wind to 35-40 MPH will add to the chill.
Thereafter, pleasant wx w/a steady warming trend is expected. Since there is really no sensible wx to speak of, I have grouped Mon-Wed as one group. W/such a tranquil period expected, I went very close to guidance throughout, except just a touch cooler on Wed, due to uncertainty as to whether clouds arrive ahead of the next sys. I did make a few modifications due to local climate effects. So the high temps I am forecasting are Mon: Near 60, except cooler along the S coast, w/some sea breeze potential, Tue: mid to upper 60s, and Wed near 70, except cooler along the S coast, again w/some sea breeze potential.
For today's graphics, I have included a graphic for tomorrow night and one for Sat's upper level low. After that, there won't be all that much wx to speak of for a while. You can see the squall line tomorrow night and then the upper level low Sat afternoon producing widespread showers across the NE CONUS.
That's all for now, see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
