Good evening from SCW.
Happy October!
Today was a decent day despite the clouds, as we had warmer high temperatures to close out another nice weekend. The week ahead looks more unsettled than we've seen in a while, with rain chances on most days. We'll be watching an area of low pressure develop offshore and it could bring an extended period of breezy conditions and rain.
At this time of year, the average high in the Hartford area is in the upper 60s, 67 to be exact today, with a low in the mid 40s, 44 to be exact today. As we move through October, these averages will continue to drop sharply along with the amount of sunlight we have!
Typically, most of Connecticut receives its first freeze (temperatures 32 and below) this month.
Happy October!
Today was a decent day despite the clouds, as we had warmer high temperatures to close out another nice weekend. The week ahead looks more unsettled than we've seen in a while, with rain chances on most days. We'll be watching an area of low pressure develop offshore and it could bring an extended period of breezy conditions and rain.
At this time of year, the average high in the Hartford area is in the upper 60s, 67 to be exact today, with a low in the mid 40s, 44 to be exact today. As we move through October, these averages will continue to drop sharply along with the amount of sunlight we have!
Typically, most of Connecticut receives its first freeze (temperatures 32 and below) this month.
Image courtesy of NWS Gray.
Monday
Tomorrow will start out quiet and dry, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. I expect a more potent passage, meaning that rain and breezy conditions will accompany this front. We might pick up a quick couple tenths of rain, and some spots may end up with a bit more. Rain is expected to arrive in the NW portion of the state by early afternoon and continue to overspread the state during the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Like most days this week, it'll be a good idea to grab an umbrella.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks much better, as we clear out and high pressure builds in briefly. This is the only day where we do not have rain chances in the forecast during the daylight hours. Tuesday will be a little cooler than Monday, but not by much.
Monday
Tomorrow will start out quiet and dry, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. I expect a more potent passage, meaning that rain and breezy conditions will accompany this front. We might pick up a quick couple tenths of rain, and some spots may end up with a bit more. Rain is expected to arrive in the NW portion of the state by early afternoon and continue to overspread the state during the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Like most days this week, it'll be a good idea to grab an umbrella.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks much better, as we clear out and high pressure builds in briefly. This is the only day where we do not have rain chances in the forecast during the daylight hours. Tuesday will be a little cooler than Monday, but not by much.
The latest GFS, which is more robust and closer to the coast with a coastal low that is expected to develop by midweek. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression.
Wednesday-Friday
The nice weather we see on Tuesday won't last. By Wednesday, an area of low pressure is expected to develop well offshore. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the details such as eventual track and strength, but with a strong high to the north and a strengthening low, I expect repeated periods of rain showers and breezy conditions. There could be some coastal flooding impacts as well. With a northeasterly wind and rain chances, high temperatures will be below normal for the period and struggle to reach the low 60s.
Wednesday-Friday
The nice weather we see on Tuesday won't last. By Wednesday, an area of low pressure is expected to develop well offshore. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the details such as eventual track and strength, but with a strong high to the north and a strengthening low, I expect repeated periods of rain showers and breezy conditions. There could be some coastal flooding impacts as well. With a northeasterly wind and rain chances, high temperatures will be below normal for the period and struggle to reach the low 60s.
The Euro, which is different from the GFS depiction, shows a low that is much further offshore, bringing us less wind and rain. There are a lot of details that still need to be worked out, but the bottom line is that a fairly potent October storm is likely to develop offshore, and will bring some minor to possibly moderate impacts to the state, especially coastal and eastern portions of the state. Stay tuned for additional updates.
Saturday-Sunday
As you can see with the European model image above, the offshore low is likely to linger through the weekend. As a result, rain shower chances will remain in the forecast, though we could see a front push through at some point late Saturday or Sunday that finally clears us out. Temperatures will remain near to below normal.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with rain showers during the afternoon and evening. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 80%
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
As you can see with the European model image above, the offshore low is likely to linger through the weekend. As a result, rain shower chances will remain in the forecast, though we could see a front push through at some point late Saturday or Sunday that finally clears us out. Temperatures will remain near to below normal.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with rain showers during the afternoon and evening. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 80%
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
