We will begin to see a more usual pattern of some ups and downs during the next couple weeks, but most modeling suggests warmth will be weak and short-lived, and cold will overall dominate the pattern, In addition, this will help create a pattern of stronger and more frequent storms, some of which should be wintry.
Currently: The current weather map is a bit of a mess, with 3 lows- mostly over upstate NY and one moving right into the area. A cold front, which has undergone the process of occlusion was over central PA and NY State. This cold front will pass through tonight and bring big changes with it.
Tonight: After some consideration, I think I am going to go a couple degrees above guidance for low temperatures tonight. My reasoning is that skies are not going to clear as rapidly as guidance indicates. We often see this behind strong cold fronts. Models rush the clearing and bust with temperatures the first night of cold air advection. Then, subsequently, the next day, temperatures don't rise as fast as modeling indicates and then it evens out. We'll go with that theme for this forecast. So with all this in mind, we'll go with temperatures within a few degrees of 25.
Tomorrow: Like I said, temperatures will start off a bit warmer than expected, but not rise as quickly as modeling has during the day. All in all, results in the end will be similar. So temperatures rise a few degrees in the morning, then generally stay steady the rest of the day. High temperatures should only be within a few degrees of 30. In addition, it will be very windy. Winds should gust over 40 MPH at times throughout the state. No wind advisories have been issued of yet from the National Weather Service, but they could be issued soon, with the 4 PM update packages. At any rate, advisories or not, winds will be quite strong and could produce minor damage. At the very least, these strong winds will make it feel significantly colder than it will already be, so bundle up!
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Another Alberta clipper system approaches from the west. This one should be stronger and further south than this past one. What this means in terms of sensible weather is colder and more moisture. There will be a period of accumulating, fluffy snow. The timing is centered around late tomorrow night for now. Accumulations should be light- a couple inches or less. However, since temperatures will be cold, this could present minor problems for the morning rush hour on Thursday. Temperatures will be plenty cold at all levels, so there is no concern over precipitation type. As far as temperatures at the surface, expect low temperatures to be within a few degrees of 20 and highs 30 to 35 on Thursday.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): Very cold weather for the first part of the long term. After that is when the weather situation becomes a bit more muddled.
In summary, another system in the fast flow will move through Friday night. This system could again drop a quick inch or two of snow, since temperatures will be cold and ratios could be sky high. Saturday will be very cold, with temperatures struggling to get to 30 degrees in the north. Temperatures then moderate to near seasonal levels from Sunday and beyond.
There is a system on the modeling for the Sunday night into Monday time frame. Temperatures look cold enough to support snow in the north and a wintry mix of snow and sleet (and maybe some rain too) near the south coast. Right now, this system appears weak and strung out on most modeling, with the heavier overrunning precipitation staying over the south and steadier precipitation near a different low in Quebec. However, I'd like to remind everyone that at this time, this past Saturday's event was modeled to go so far south of here that it would have been difficult to even get clouds this far north. So it is definitely worth keeping an eye on, as we often see large changes in modeling this far out.
The long range definitely looks to turn more stormy. Temperatures will be more up and down, but the GFS modeling should not be used at this range. Somehow, with strong high pressure (in the 1040s!) over southern Quebec, a result of the strong -EPO (5-6 SDs!) over Alaska, and low pressure systems sliding to the south, it magically warms up the Eastern United States.
I will now show some graphical representation of the clippers imbedded in the pattern over the next week. Here is the system for tomorrow night:
Currently: The current weather map is a bit of a mess, with 3 lows- mostly over upstate NY and one moving right into the area. A cold front, which has undergone the process of occlusion was over central PA and NY State. This cold front will pass through tonight and bring big changes with it.
Tonight: After some consideration, I think I am going to go a couple degrees above guidance for low temperatures tonight. My reasoning is that skies are not going to clear as rapidly as guidance indicates. We often see this behind strong cold fronts. Models rush the clearing and bust with temperatures the first night of cold air advection. Then, subsequently, the next day, temperatures don't rise as fast as modeling indicates and then it evens out. We'll go with that theme for this forecast. So with all this in mind, we'll go with temperatures within a few degrees of 25.
Tomorrow: Like I said, temperatures will start off a bit warmer than expected, but not rise as quickly as modeling has during the day. All in all, results in the end will be similar. So temperatures rise a few degrees in the morning, then generally stay steady the rest of the day. High temperatures should only be within a few degrees of 30. In addition, it will be very windy. Winds should gust over 40 MPH at times throughout the state. No wind advisories have been issued of yet from the National Weather Service, but they could be issued soon, with the 4 PM update packages. At any rate, advisories or not, winds will be quite strong and could produce minor damage. At the very least, these strong winds will make it feel significantly colder than it will already be, so bundle up!
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Another Alberta clipper system approaches from the west. This one should be stronger and further south than this past one. What this means in terms of sensible weather is colder and more moisture. There will be a period of accumulating, fluffy snow. The timing is centered around late tomorrow night for now. Accumulations should be light- a couple inches or less. However, since temperatures will be cold, this could present minor problems for the morning rush hour on Thursday. Temperatures will be plenty cold at all levels, so there is no concern over precipitation type. As far as temperatures at the surface, expect low temperatures to be within a few degrees of 20 and highs 30 to 35 on Thursday.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): Very cold weather for the first part of the long term. After that is when the weather situation becomes a bit more muddled.
In summary, another system in the fast flow will move through Friday night. This system could again drop a quick inch or two of snow, since temperatures will be cold and ratios could be sky high. Saturday will be very cold, with temperatures struggling to get to 30 degrees in the north. Temperatures then moderate to near seasonal levels from Sunday and beyond.
There is a system on the modeling for the Sunday night into Monday time frame. Temperatures look cold enough to support snow in the north and a wintry mix of snow and sleet (and maybe some rain too) near the south coast. Right now, this system appears weak and strung out on most modeling, with the heavier overrunning precipitation staying over the south and steadier precipitation near a different low in Quebec. However, I'd like to remind everyone that at this time, this past Saturday's event was modeled to go so far south of here that it would have been difficult to even get clouds this far north. So it is definitely worth keeping an eye on, as we often see large changes in modeling this far out.
The long range definitely looks to turn more stormy. Temperatures will be more up and down, but the GFS modeling should not be used at this range. Somehow, with strong high pressure (in the 1040s!) over southern Quebec, a result of the strong -EPO (5-6 SDs!) over Alaska, and low pressure systems sliding to the south, it magically warms up the Eastern United States.
I will now show some graphical representation of the clippers imbedded in the pattern over the next week. Here is the system for tomorrow night:
Now, let's look at the 2nd clipper, slated for the following night.
Looking at these two maps, the first system targets southern areas, while the second system targets northern areas. Most of the state should see 1-2" some time before Saturday morning. Anyway, that's all for now... enjoy the rest of your week!
=GP!
=GP!
