Good evening from SCW once again. As we mentioned earlier tonight, we are seeing a trend on the guidance that's resulting in a weaker and warmer system. The two factors are likely related; as the system weakens, we lose the dynamics that were previously created, allowing for warmer air to make its way into the bottom of the column and result in a cold rain for a portion of the event.
As a result, snowfall totals are dropping in portions of the state. In the southeastern corner of the state, we are now expecting mainly rain, with a slushy 1-3" of snow possible at the start and the end of the event. For the middle portion of the state including the western shoreline, we are now expecting 3-6" of snow, mixed with and changing to rain at times especially in the southern zones. In the northern and western portions of the state where confidence is higher in an all snow event and models maintain stronger banding there, we are leaving the forecast as is at 4-8", but I would expect more 4" totals than 8" totals when all is said and done.
Two things are worth highlighting with this revised map. First, model agreement is still very low. The models have still been floating all over the place and there is little consensus on how far inland the warmth will make it and what QPF will look like across portions of the region. Some of the models are now suggesting a dryslot forming in eastern portions of the state which would serve to further limit totals; I'm not sure I buy that just yet but don't be surprised to see a bust in some eastern areas if that comes to fruition. Should the coldest solution we've seen today verify, the original map from last night will be spot on, and should the warmest solution verify, we'd need to pull that 1-3" zone to encompass most of the current 3-6" zone and downgrade the 4-8" zone to 3-6" outside the Litchfield hills, which I think are a relative lock for at least 4". This map attempts to take a middle ground of those extremas, but the end result could be anywhere along the spectrum.
Second, the heaviest of the snow is still expected during the morning commute tomorrow, and even if the net totals are lower across the state, the commute is still going to be rather slow for everyone away from the immediate shoreline and possibly the shoreline as well. Take it very easy on the roads tomorrow morning if you need to travel and leave plenty of extra time to reach your destination. Still would expect to see some closings and delays due to the timing.
We'll update in the morning as needed, until then, stay safe, enjoy the snow, and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
As a result, snowfall totals are dropping in portions of the state. In the southeastern corner of the state, we are now expecting mainly rain, with a slushy 1-3" of snow possible at the start and the end of the event. For the middle portion of the state including the western shoreline, we are now expecting 3-6" of snow, mixed with and changing to rain at times especially in the southern zones. In the northern and western portions of the state where confidence is higher in an all snow event and models maintain stronger banding there, we are leaving the forecast as is at 4-8", but I would expect more 4" totals than 8" totals when all is said and done.
Two things are worth highlighting with this revised map. First, model agreement is still very low. The models have still been floating all over the place and there is little consensus on how far inland the warmth will make it and what QPF will look like across portions of the region. Some of the models are now suggesting a dryslot forming in eastern portions of the state which would serve to further limit totals; I'm not sure I buy that just yet but don't be surprised to see a bust in some eastern areas if that comes to fruition. Should the coldest solution we've seen today verify, the original map from last night will be spot on, and should the warmest solution verify, we'd need to pull that 1-3" zone to encompass most of the current 3-6" zone and downgrade the 4-8" zone to 3-6" outside the Litchfield hills, which I think are a relative lock for at least 4". This map attempts to take a middle ground of those extremas, but the end result could be anywhere along the spectrum.
Second, the heaviest of the snow is still expected during the morning commute tomorrow, and even if the net totals are lower across the state, the commute is still going to be rather slow for everyone away from the immediate shoreline and possibly the shoreline as well. Take it very easy on the roads tomorrow morning if you need to travel and leave plenty of extra time to reach your destination. Still would expect to see some closings and delays due to the timing.
We'll update in the morning as needed, until then, stay safe, enjoy the snow, and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
