As the header says, we are going to stay very active, warm, and humid, for the foreseeable future. The first order of business through this forecast period, in the immediate term, is thunderstorms from the frontal boundary nearby. Then TS Elsa heading up the coast. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all of our coastal counties.
Currently: Frontal boundary draped over our S Coastal counties. TS Elsa near Charlotte, NC. These two features will combine to create lots of weather across the area over the next 24 hrs.
The first issue is developing t-storms for this afternoon. There could be some severe storms before anything to do w/Elsa moves into the area. The greatest risk for this appears to be in a polygon bounded by HVN to the SE up to somewhere just N of DXR to the NW. Rotating cells are already noted over NE NJ and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out!
Around sunset, as instability wanes, t-storms should diminish. We should likely get a 3-5 hr lull before rain and wind associated with Elsa move in. As is typical with tropical cyclones, the highest winds tend to be to the E and NE of the center's track and the heaviest rains tend to be to the W and NW of the storm's track. Therefore, who gets what will be largely dependent on storm track.
Using a blend of all models except the NAM for this fcst. The NAM somehow dissipates almost all the rain and gives nobody more than an inch. That is highly unlikely, considering how moisture-laden our air mass is already. Elsa will be a quick-hitting storm, with effects not arriving until around midnight. and out of the state (other than some leftover wind gusts) by mid-morning. Impactful winds probably do not touch the NW hills. We can do something like gusts to 35 MPH in SW CT, ramping up to 50+ in SE CT, with not too much of a problem in NE CT. Heaviest rain is probably in SW CT, again W of the center, and any orographic effects in the NW Hills. Localized spots there could see in excess of three inches of rain. In SE CT, much lower totals, less than half an inch, can be expected. There is a low-grade tornado risk (separate from this afternoon's storms) generally to the E of I 91.
As far as temps tonight and tomorrow, went very close to guidance, w/local adjustments tonight. We're in a tropical air mass, so it will be hard for anyone to get below 70. NBM guidance looks way too warm for tomorrow, considering we'll start ovc and only have a few hrs of sun before we destabilize again. So mostly upper 70s for highs are expected. Speaking of convection, we do destabilize after Elsa pulls out tomorrow. However, there may not be enough time between Elsa pulling away and the atmosphere destabilizing to allow significant convection to organize. Therefore, after the AM rains, pops have been kept at slight chance.
I am now going to insert some graphics regarding Elsa. For those who are only interested in Elsa, you can stop reading here. For those who want to know about the rest of the upcoming week, continue to read. But let me explain the maps briefly before I insert them. The first map is probability of sustained tropical storm force winds. As you can see, probability is highest over SE CT, but probabilities are fairly low, overall. The next map is rainfall potential. As you can see, most of the state is outlined in 2"+ potential totals, w/lower amounts over SE CT. Finally, the last map is flash flood potential. On this map, most of the state is in a slight risk, w/little to no risk over SE CT, and a swath of moderate risk from about BDR to BDL. This area has seen the heaviest rain recently.
Currently: Frontal boundary draped over our S Coastal counties. TS Elsa near Charlotte, NC. These two features will combine to create lots of weather across the area over the next 24 hrs.
The first issue is developing t-storms for this afternoon. There could be some severe storms before anything to do w/Elsa moves into the area. The greatest risk for this appears to be in a polygon bounded by HVN to the SE up to somewhere just N of DXR to the NW. Rotating cells are already noted over NE NJ and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out!
Around sunset, as instability wanes, t-storms should diminish. We should likely get a 3-5 hr lull before rain and wind associated with Elsa move in. As is typical with tropical cyclones, the highest winds tend to be to the E and NE of the center's track and the heaviest rains tend to be to the W and NW of the storm's track. Therefore, who gets what will be largely dependent on storm track.
Using a blend of all models except the NAM for this fcst. The NAM somehow dissipates almost all the rain and gives nobody more than an inch. That is highly unlikely, considering how moisture-laden our air mass is already. Elsa will be a quick-hitting storm, with effects not arriving until around midnight. and out of the state (other than some leftover wind gusts) by mid-morning. Impactful winds probably do not touch the NW hills. We can do something like gusts to 35 MPH in SW CT, ramping up to 50+ in SE CT, with not too much of a problem in NE CT. Heaviest rain is probably in SW CT, again W of the center, and any orographic effects in the NW Hills. Localized spots there could see in excess of three inches of rain. In SE CT, much lower totals, less than half an inch, can be expected. There is a low-grade tornado risk (separate from this afternoon's storms) generally to the E of I 91.
As far as temps tonight and tomorrow, went very close to guidance, w/local adjustments tonight. We're in a tropical air mass, so it will be hard for anyone to get below 70. NBM guidance looks way too warm for tomorrow, considering we'll start ovc and only have a few hrs of sun before we destabilize again. So mostly upper 70s for highs are expected. Speaking of convection, we do destabilize after Elsa pulls out tomorrow. However, there may not be enough time between Elsa pulling away and the atmosphere destabilizing to allow significant convection to organize. Therefore, after the AM rains, pops have been kept at slight chance.
I am now going to insert some graphics regarding Elsa. For those who are only interested in Elsa, you can stop reading here. For those who want to know about the rest of the upcoming week, continue to read. But let me explain the maps briefly before I insert them. The first map is probability of sustained tropical storm force winds. As you can see, probability is highest over SE CT, but probabilities are fairly low, overall. The next map is rainfall potential. As you can see, most of the state is outlined in 2"+ potential totals, w/lower amounts over SE CT. Finally, the last map is flash flood potential. On this map, most of the state is in a slight risk, w/little to no risk over SE CT, and a swath of moderate risk from about BDR to BDL. This area has seen the heaviest rain recently.
