This will be more brief than normal, due to being pressed for time. It may still have to be longer than I intended, because of the active nature of the wx pattern. I am also working with a depleted toolbox today, as MOS has not updated in three days, and my go-to radar is down, but such is life.
Currently: High pressure over central NYS shielding the area from rain, for now. A stationary front draped from the Delmarva to Cleveland approaches later. In addition, two lows, one near Des Moines and the other over SE MO will approach the area. The Srn low becomes the dominant low, keeping the warm front S of the area.
Tonight: Rain spreads in from SW to NE. Generally rain arrives mid-evening SW to around midnite NE. Low temps should generally be in the low 40s. There shouldn't be much thermal variation, w/dense cloud cover and precip, and no fronts nearby.
Tomorrow: A nice, gloomy, rainy day, if that's what you like. If not, you can just think that it can't get much worse! Models have not been consistent on timing, but it should end during the evening hours. It may actually linger longer in W sections of the state, with ULL passing overhead. Tomorrow will be chilly, if not downright cold for this time of year. Temps will only rise a couple degrees from the morning lows!
Tomorrow Night/Sat: After the rain pulls out, we sneak in a brief period of dry wx. Although Sat should be gray and dreary, at least it won't rain. Look for highs in the mid 50s or so.
Longer Term: The long term disco focuses on two rain events- one centered on Sunday and the other on Wednesday. Tuesday is probably the best day of the long term, at least out to day 7 or 8.
Sunday: Low pressure will track very close to the area and then stall/decay near the area. What this means for us in terms of sensible wx is rain arriving before dawn on Sunday. Timing individual waves of pcpn this far out can prove to be futile, but more futile is not making an attempt at all. It appears we'll get a slug of rain Sun morn, then a break, then another shot of rain Sun night, then another break overnight, with yet another shot of rain Monday morning. Showers then linger thru much of the day Mon. It will be a chilly rain, with highs only near 50 Sun and 40-45 Mon! Right now, it is not in the fcst, but it is not impossible for a few sleet pellets or snowflakes to mix in at the highest elevs early Mon morning, and again Mon evening, during the coldest parts of the day!
On Tuesday, we may actually see a bright orb in the sky for a few hours. Please do not stare at it, as it has been known to cause eye damage. This orb is known as the sun. Tuesday will actually be a fairly nice day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Rain from the next system should arrive Tuesday night after midnight. At this time, Wed appears to be quite a washout, possibly even featuring strong t-storms W of I 91 later in the day. Highs Wed should be 50-55.
A return to more fair wx is likely on Thursday, though an aftn shower cannot be completely ruled out. Temps remain cool, in the 50-55 deg range.
Anyway, that's it for me... I have a hectic schedule today and I am running late! Take care and stay safe!
-GP!
Currently: High pressure over central NYS shielding the area from rain, for now. A stationary front draped from the Delmarva to Cleveland approaches later. In addition, two lows, one near Des Moines and the other over SE MO will approach the area. The Srn low becomes the dominant low, keeping the warm front S of the area.
Tonight: Rain spreads in from SW to NE. Generally rain arrives mid-evening SW to around midnite NE. Low temps should generally be in the low 40s. There shouldn't be much thermal variation, w/dense cloud cover and precip, and no fronts nearby.
Tomorrow: A nice, gloomy, rainy day, if that's what you like. If not, you can just think that it can't get much worse! Models have not been consistent on timing, but it should end during the evening hours. It may actually linger longer in W sections of the state, with ULL passing overhead. Tomorrow will be chilly, if not downright cold for this time of year. Temps will only rise a couple degrees from the morning lows!
Tomorrow Night/Sat: After the rain pulls out, we sneak in a brief period of dry wx. Although Sat should be gray and dreary, at least it won't rain. Look for highs in the mid 50s or so.
Longer Term: The long term disco focuses on two rain events- one centered on Sunday and the other on Wednesday. Tuesday is probably the best day of the long term, at least out to day 7 or 8.
Sunday: Low pressure will track very close to the area and then stall/decay near the area. What this means for us in terms of sensible wx is rain arriving before dawn on Sunday. Timing individual waves of pcpn this far out can prove to be futile, but more futile is not making an attempt at all. It appears we'll get a slug of rain Sun morn, then a break, then another shot of rain Sun night, then another break overnight, with yet another shot of rain Monday morning. Showers then linger thru much of the day Mon. It will be a chilly rain, with highs only near 50 Sun and 40-45 Mon! Right now, it is not in the fcst, but it is not impossible for a few sleet pellets or snowflakes to mix in at the highest elevs early Mon morning, and again Mon evening, during the coldest parts of the day!
On Tuesday, we may actually see a bright orb in the sky for a few hours. Please do not stare at it, as it has been known to cause eye damage. This orb is known as the sun. Tuesday will actually be a fairly nice day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Rain from the next system should arrive Tuesday night after midnight. At this time, Wed appears to be quite a washout, possibly even featuring strong t-storms W of I 91 later in the day. Highs Wed should be 50-55.
A return to more fair wx is likely on Thursday, though an aftn shower cannot be completely ruled out. Temps remain cool, in the 50-55 deg range.
Anyway, that's it for me... I have a hectic schedule today and I am running late! Take care and stay safe!
-GP!
