Disc: When I look at the overall pattern going forward, I notice two things. First, it's very blocky. Secondly, there are many little vorts in the overall picture. These are both things that models are not particularly good at handling. So it would not surprise me if there are last-minute changes to forecasts in the next few weeks.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure from MS to Quebec providing the area with a nice Sunday.
Short Term Disco:
Tonight: Should be a good radiative night, so there should be a wide disparity in temps from one place to another. Guidance has a generally good idea on the overall air mass, but is not made to handle very good radiative nights. Therefore, there will be a larger range in temps than what is being modeled now. "Most" places across the state will be between 20 and 25 degrees, however, upper teens are likely in the NW hills and sheltered valleys, with upper 20s likely in downtown cities and along the immediate S coast.
Tomorrow: Very weak cold front goes thru in the AM, so there should be some slight cold air advection. Therefore, tomorrow winds up cooler than today. Will cut a couple deg off temp guidance and call for highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tomorrow Night/Tue: Neutral advection, sunny skies. There might be some potential for downsloping, but winds probably too light. Therefore, guidance is accepted. Highs should be generally around 40, but there could be a pocket of 40-45 along the I 91 corridor.
Long Term Disco:
Wed: Will stay close to guidance on temps. SW flow ahead of cold front should allow temps to warm. Looking at low 40s, maybe a 45 here or there in the I 91 corridor.
Thu-Fri: Need to watch the interaction of a frontal system with the development of a coastal low. The GFS has a mostly dry frontal passage, while the GGEM develops an anafrontal coastal low, which would bring the state light to moderate snow in the cold sector. The ECMWF looks to be somewhere in between. For now, I'll take the conservative fcst and just go w/a fropa, and let later crews look at this, given that models have been inconsistent and we're still 4-5 days out. I do think guidance could be too aggressive on temps for Thu, given cloud cover. Plus it's also a good idea to go a bit low on temps in case the coastal low does develop. This way we can trend temps down and not have to jump so much. With that in mind, will go with highs mostly in the low 40s, again, maybe a 45 possible along I 91. For Friday's temps, I also went a few deg below guidance to allow for the possibility of the coastal low. I'll call for 40-45. But of course, if we do get the coastal, it will turn out colder.
Sat: I'll go a few deg below temp guidance, as cold air advection commences. Models are notoriously too warm post cold fropa. So xpct highs in the upper 30s.
Sun: I'll follow the same trends as Sat on temps. Probably similar temps, maybe a deg or so cooler than those of Sat.
LR: Long range continues to look interesting. With blocking and at least marginal cold air available, a more active storm track could prove interesting for winter wx enthusiasts. Time will tell!
Here is the Canadian model for Sat night. Thinking this could very well be snow for the entire region if it was correct. Air mass looks supportive and these maps show rain if the sfc is 33. It can very well be 33 or 34 deg and snow, and even accumulate, esp at night! Stay tuned!
Currently: Sprawling high pressure from MS to Quebec providing the area with a nice Sunday.
Short Term Disco:
Tonight: Should be a good radiative night, so there should be a wide disparity in temps from one place to another. Guidance has a generally good idea on the overall air mass, but is not made to handle very good radiative nights. Therefore, there will be a larger range in temps than what is being modeled now. "Most" places across the state will be between 20 and 25 degrees, however, upper teens are likely in the NW hills and sheltered valleys, with upper 20s likely in downtown cities and along the immediate S coast.
Tomorrow: Very weak cold front goes thru in the AM, so there should be some slight cold air advection. Therefore, tomorrow winds up cooler than today. Will cut a couple deg off temp guidance and call for highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tomorrow Night/Tue: Neutral advection, sunny skies. There might be some potential for downsloping, but winds probably too light. Therefore, guidance is accepted. Highs should be generally around 40, but there could be a pocket of 40-45 along the I 91 corridor.
Long Term Disco:
Wed: Will stay close to guidance on temps. SW flow ahead of cold front should allow temps to warm. Looking at low 40s, maybe a 45 here or there in the I 91 corridor.
Thu-Fri: Need to watch the interaction of a frontal system with the development of a coastal low. The GFS has a mostly dry frontal passage, while the GGEM develops an anafrontal coastal low, which would bring the state light to moderate snow in the cold sector. The ECMWF looks to be somewhere in between. For now, I'll take the conservative fcst and just go w/a fropa, and let later crews look at this, given that models have been inconsistent and we're still 4-5 days out. I do think guidance could be too aggressive on temps for Thu, given cloud cover. Plus it's also a good idea to go a bit low on temps in case the coastal low does develop. This way we can trend temps down and not have to jump so much. With that in mind, will go with highs mostly in the low 40s, again, maybe a 45 possible along I 91. For Friday's temps, I also went a few deg below guidance to allow for the possibility of the coastal low. I'll call for 40-45. But of course, if we do get the coastal, it will turn out colder.
Sat: I'll go a few deg below temp guidance, as cold air advection commences. Models are notoriously too warm post cold fropa. So xpct highs in the upper 30s.
Sun: I'll follow the same trends as Sat on temps. Probably similar temps, maybe a deg or so cooler than those of Sat.
LR: Long range continues to look interesting. With blocking and at least marginal cold air available, a more active storm track could prove interesting for winter wx enthusiasts. Time will tell!
Here is the Canadian model for Sat night. Thinking this could very well be snow for the entire region if it was correct. Air mass looks supportive and these maps show rain if the sfc is 33. It can very well be 33 or 34 deg and snow, and even accumulate, esp at night! Stay tuned!
Anyway, that's all for now, see you later in the week!
-GP!
-GP!
