Disc: It is going to get dangerously hot. The question is not whether it is going to get hot, or even how hot- but now the main question is if and when there will be thunderstorms beyond ongoing convection today.
Currently: A warm front was currently near Sikorsky Airport, while a cold front was along the Delaware River. This cold front is not exactly producing any cold air behind it, as we will be warmer tomorrow than today. Basically, it's just a demarcation line for briefly lower dew points.
Tonight: Ongoing thunderstorms taper off after sunset, with a loss of daytime heating. Rapidly drying conditions, clear skies, and winds going calm should allow temperatures to fall into the 60-65 degree range, a few degrees cooler than guidance. Enjoy it, because this is the last cool"ish" night for a while!
Tomorrow: Sunny and very warm, but it won't feel that bad, with low relative humidity. See no real reason to deviate much from guidance temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: As the fabled "Bermuda high" sets up offshore, both temperatures and humidity begin to rise. Temperatures soar to near 90 degrees statewide on Saturday. The warmest locations should be along the I 91 corridor, with the coolest locations along the south coast, where a weak sea breeze may help a bit. MOS guidance generally looks good, so it has been accepted for the most part.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The longest, hottest heat wave since July 2010 is likely to have commenced Saturday and continue through the long term, especially in the I 91 corridor! At this time, I will be officially forecasting temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in this section of the state on Sunday, with some low 100s possible in the CT Valley, i.e. 99-103F readings.... In general, thinking is for highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide, a few degrees warmer than guidance, with 100+ possible in the I 91 corridor.
The heat continues all week, although it can't sustain 100 degree temperatures for a week in this part of the world. But with high humidity all week, do not expect much of a respite from the heat. Expect high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range on Monday and mid 90s the rest of Nthe week thereafter. The only chance of precipitation at this time appears to be later Wednesday into Wednesday night, for the 4th of July. as a dying cold front could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. In general, I went 2 to 4 degrees warmer than statistical guidance all week, due to MOS generally having a climo bias, plus 2 other things. First, I feel the guidance is too "cloudy", as guidance, particularly GFS based guidance, tends to propogate convective cloudiness too far beyond their usual point of dissipation. Finally, 850 millibar temperatures also support high temperatures a few degrees warmer than statistical guidance. When it's above 20 degrees Celsius (68F) 5000 feet up, serious heat often results.
Looking into the long range briefly, the big heat may continue a few more days and "reenergize" briefly before it finally moderates. The moderation will likely be due to a reorientation of the Bermuda Ridge, which will likely place the area in a "ring of fire" pattern, which would mean slightly cooler, but very humid, and frequent episodes of thunderstorms.
For some fun, I decided today to incorporate my high temperature forecast for Sunday in this product, as Sunday will likely be the hottest day of the heat wave, so have fun with it, and let's see what happens come verification time!
Sikorsky Airport Bridgeport: 98
Danbury Airport: 100
Bradley Field Windsor-Locks/Hartford: 102
New Haven Tweed Airport: 100
Groton-New London Airport: 94
Oxford-Waterbury: 102
Willimantic-Windham Co: 102
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great one and stay cool (and observe heat safety) this weekend!
-GP!
Currently: A warm front was currently near Sikorsky Airport, while a cold front was along the Delaware River. This cold front is not exactly producing any cold air behind it, as we will be warmer tomorrow than today. Basically, it's just a demarcation line for briefly lower dew points.
Tonight: Ongoing thunderstorms taper off after sunset, with a loss of daytime heating. Rapidly drying conditions, clear skies, and winds going calm should allow temperatures to fall into the 60-65 degree range, a few degrees cooler than guidance. Enjoy it, because this is the last cool"ish" night for a while!
Tomorrow: Sunny and very warm, but it won't feel that bad, with low relative humidity. See no real reason to deviate much from guidance temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: As the fabled "Bermuda high" sets up offshore, both temperatures and humidity begin to rise. Temperatures soar to near 90 degrees statewide on Saturday. The warmest locations should be along the I 91 corridor, with the coolest locations along the south coast, where a weak sea breeze may help a bit. MOS guidance generally looks good, so it has been accepted for the most part.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The longest, hottest heat wave since July 2010 is likely to have commenced Saturday and continue through the long term, especially in the I 91 corridor! At this time, I will be officially forecasting temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in this section of the state on Sunday, with some low 100s possible in the CT Valley, i.e. 99-103F readings.... In general, thinking is for highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide, a few degrees warmer than guidance, with 100+ possible in the I 91 corridor.
The heat continues all week, although it can't sustain 100 degree temperatures for a week in this part of the world. But with high humidity all week, do not expect much of a respite from the heat. Expect high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range on Monday and mid 90s the rest of Nthe week thereafter. The only chance of precipitation at this time appears to be later Wednesday into Wednesday night, for the 4th of July. as a dying cold front could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. In general, I went 2 to 4 degrees warmer than statistical guidance all week, due to MOS generally having a climo bias, plus 2 other things. First, I feel the guidance is too "cloudy", as guidance, particularly GFS based guidance, tends to propogate convective cloudiness too far beyond their usual point of dissipation. Finally, 850 millibar temperatures also support high temperatures a few degrees warmer than statistical guidance. When it's above 20 degrees Celsius (68F) 5000 feet up, serious heat often results.
Looking into the long range briefly, the big heat may continue a few more days and "reenergize" briefly before it finally moderates. The moderation will likely be due to a reorientation of the Bermuda Ridge, which will likely place the area in a "ring of fire" pattern, which would mean slightly cooler, but very humid, and frequent episodes of thunderstorms.
For some fun, I decided today to incorporate my high temperature forecast for Sunday in this product, as Sunday will likely be the hottest day of the heat wave, so have fun with it, and let's see what happens come verification time!
Sikorsky Airport Bridgeport: 98
Danbury Airport: 100
Bradley Field Windsor-Locks/Hartford: 102
New Haven Tweed Airport: 100
Groton-New London Airport: 94
Oxford-Waterbury: 102
Willimantic-Windham Co: 102
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great one and stay cool (and observe heat safety) this weekend!
-GP!
