The upcoming pattern is one that looks very typical if one examines current maps with climo maps for mid-May. We'll still have to deal w/frontal boundaries and onshore flow scenarios, but there is a clear, albeit slow, upward trend in temps as we head forward.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure stretches from the Central Plains to about Montauk. This is keeping sunny and pleasant wx over the area for now.
Tonight: I will go a good 3-5 deg below guidance for lows tonight. Conditions look nearly ideal for radiational cooling. Temps should fall to 40-45 across the state under clear skies.
Tomorrow: Generally sunny, w/increasing cumulus later in the day. Any clouds should not be very impactful regarding temps. Went pretty close to guidance, with a few local adjustments. Generally looking at highs in the low 70s, but some mid 70s possible along the I 91 corridor. It should be noted that there is a slight chance of showers or t-storms at night, but they should be very widely scattered and limited to S CT.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Once again, no real reason to differ from temp guidance. 70-75 looks like a good bet statewide for high temps on Sat. Once again, there is also a slight chance of showers-storms and once again mainly at night. This time the chance is ever so slightly higher and I'll include the whole state except the NE 1/4.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The highlights come early in the long term period, w/the rest of the period looking pretty quiet and then perhaps a significant storm just beyond the range of this fcst.
First, for Sun, clouds should be on the increase w/a steady shot of rain arriving late in the day. Timing will be everything regarding temps. For now, I've gone a few deg below guidance and called for upper 60s to near 70. I could be a couple deg too cool, esp if rain arrives a few hrs later than progged or is less widespread than progged, but we'll ride it for now.
I have done something I do not normally do for Mon, and that is gone close to 10 deg below NBM temp guidance. If there is one thing you learn forecasting spring after spring in CT, it's that warm fronts to not come blazing thru. So I have taken a risk and taken the big under w/temps. Looking at highs only near 60 for much of the state. Steady rain/showers taper off before dawn. There is a chance that spotty drizzle can linger all day. Model soundings look moist and saturated. Although models do not implicitly fcst drizzle, that is as close as they will come.
The front basically dies later Mon night. This will allow the primary wx maker to be high pressure offshore. Therefore, winds will shift around to W/SW and allow us to warm up. Guidance generally looks good and was followed for temps, w/a few local adjustments. Generally looking at low 70s across the state.
Another nice one for Wed... plenty of sun and highs in the low 70s. Guidance was followed closely for Wed, w/no reason to quibble.
For Thu, clouds could increase ahead of the next sys. But the feeling here is that any clouds will be high-level. Therefore, I don't think there will be much affect on temps. 850's rise 3-4 deg C compared to Wed. W/that in mind, I went about 3 deg above temp guidance for Thu for a start, and have mid 70s nearly statewide, w/some upper 70s possible along the I 91 corridor.
In the long range, it really looks like more of the same w/regards to temps being highly dependent on where any boundaries set up, and precip chances along and near boundaries. There is very warm air to be tapped, but there is also cold marine air around, so fcsts will be challenging.
I have not included tons of graphics w/this fcst, due to the fact that we only have one widespread pcpn event in the fcst pd. But here is the map showing later Sunday, as rain is headed into the state.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure stretches from the Central Plains to about Montauk. This is keeping sunny and pleasant wx over the area for now.
Tonight: I will go a good 3-5 deg below guidance for lows tonight. Conditions look nearly ideal for radiational cooling. Temps should fall to 40-45 across the state under clear skies.
Tomorrow: Generally sunny, w/increasing cumulus later in the day. Any clouds should not be very impactful regarding temps. Went pretty close to guidance, with a few local adjustments. Generally looking at highs in the low 70s, but some mid 70s possible along the I 91 corridor. It should be noted that there is a slight chance of showers or t-storms at night, but they should be very widely scattered and limited to S CT.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Once again, no real reason to differ from temp guidance. 70-75 looks like a good bet statewide for high temps on Sat. Once again, there is also a slight chance of showers-storms and once again mainly at night. This time the chance is ever so slightly higher and I'll include the whole state except the NE 1/4.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The highlights come early in the long term period, w/the rest of the period looking pretty quiet and then perhaps a significant storm just beyond the range of this fcst.
First, for Sun, clouds should be on the increase w/a steady shot of rain arriving late in the day. Timing will be everything regarding temps. For now, I've gone a few deg below guidance and called for upper 60s to near 70. I could be a couple deg too cool, esp if rain arrives a few hrs later than progged or is less widespread than progged, but we'll ride it for now.
I have done something I do not normally do for Mon, and that is gone close to 10 deg below NBM temp guidance. If there is one thing you learn forecasting spring after spring in CT, it's that warm fronts to not come blazing thru. So I have taken a risk and taken the big under w/temps. Looking at highs only near 60 for much of the state. Steady rain/showers taper off before dawn. There is a chance that spotty drizzle can linger all day. Model soundings look moist and saturated. Although models do not implicitly fcst drizzle, that is as close as they will come.
The front basically dies later Mon night. This will allow the primary wx maker to be high pressure offshore. Therefore, winds will shift around to W/SW and allow us to warm up. Guidance generally looks good and was followed for temps, w/a few local adjustments. Generally looking at low 70s across the state.
Another nice one for Wed... plenty of sun and highs in the low 70s. Guidance was followed closely for Wed, w/no reason to quibble.
For Thu, clouds could increase ahead of the next sys. But the feeling here is that any clouds will be high-level. Therefore, I don't think there will be much affect on temps. 850's rise 3-4 deg C compared to Wed. W/that in mind, I went about 3 deg above temp guidance for Thu for a start, and have mid 70s nearly statewide, w/some upper 70s possible along the I 91 corridor.
In the long range, it really looks like more of the same w/regards to temps being highly dependent on where any boundaries set up, and precip chances along and near boundaries. There is very warm air to be tapped, but there is also cold marine air around, so fcsts will be challenging.
I have not included tons of graphics w/this fcst, due to the fact that we only have one widespread pcpn event in the fcst pd. But here is the map showing later Sunday, as rain is headed into the state.
Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy your weekend and see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
