Today and tomorrow will be very warm. After that, we'll see temperatures largely more normal for the season and then probably solidly below normal during the long range.
Currently: Warm front well thru the entire state. We are under the influence of high pressure over NC, which really resembles a summertime Bermuda High. The cold front that will begin to change our wx is way back over Indiana.
Tonight: I think guidance is way too warm. Even though we're in a warm air mass, it's a dry one tonight, and we should be able to radiate very well. Therefore, I've gone solidly colder than NBM guidance and used a "halfway to the dew point" approach, then blended that in with 30% temp guidance. This yields low temps in the low 40s across the state.
Tomorrow: Temps are a bit tricky, because it really depends on when cold air advection begins to set in. This time of yr, it is easier to accomplish than most of the yr. Therefore, guidance could be a bit too warm, so I subtracted a little here and there. Look for highs of 50-55. It is possible we could see highs occur around late morn, and have a steep N-S temp gradient, but I didn't want to get too cute.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The combo of cold air advection and a weak low traversing S PA into SNJ will produce a long duration light to moderate precip event. Heaviest precip prob falls around midday, w/perhaps another burst late at night. But even in between, light precip/drizzle will be falling.
High pressure is located NE of the state, so the highest chance for frozen precip is going to be over E CT. There is no southerly component to the wind at any level to speak of. Therefore, I have done a few things w/the snow fcst for this event. For SW CT, for now, I only have rain mixing with sleet at times and no appreciable accum. For areas along I 84 and North I have mixed pcpn in the fcst, allowing for a period of mostly snow, w/light (1-2") accums. I also have allowed for the possibility for up to 3" and a mainly snow event in Tolland and Windham counties. Now the big ? is what to do with SE CT, i.e. New London and Middlesex counties. Being that they are in E CT, there is some cold air drainage so even those areas could very well see a period of all snow. It may be hard to get the immediate SE coast cold enough for accums, but I could see 1" falling in the interior portions of this county.
Now, what could change this fcst? I'll run the colder and warmer scenarios here, just to get better understanding. If it's warmer than fcst, accums will be limited to elevations above 1000' N of 84 and prob be less than an inch. If it's colder than fcst, then we may need to allow a couple more inches N of 84 and allow for up to 1" all the way to the S coast. One thing that does appear fortunate right now, is that there is a cold layer around 900MB, which is colder than the sfc. This pretty much eliminates any threat of freezing rain. One other note, I do not see any possibility of anyone in the state getting more than 5" out of this storm. That would be the absolute ceiling. The storm just doesn't have tons of moisture to work with. Also, w/relatively low rates, daytime precip, marginal temps, and previously warm ground, accums on roadways should be minimal. However, I don't like to belabor this point, because even a patch of snow/ice on roads can cause problems.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): A pattern much more common for this time of yr sets in.
Sunday: A morning shower leads to clearing skies. Cold air advection will produce wind gusts of 35-40 MPH. W/the combo of fresh cold air advection and the potential for some snowcover either over parts of the state or nearby, I have lowered guidance temps by quite a bit. Look for highs only in the mid 30s. W/the wind, it will feel like it's in the 20s all day!
Monday: Near neutral advection, much calmer winds. Model guidance temps look fine. In fact, I raised them a bit near I 91 corridor. So expect highs generally near 40, except a patch of 40-45 along I 91.
Tuesday: I once again went near or slightly above consensus guidance. High pressure briefly slides offshore, allowing for warmer temps for a day. Look for highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Wednesday: Went just a smidge under guidance for two reasons. First, we'll have weak, but fresh cold air advection. Secondly, it will probably be cloudier than is indicated by the NBM. I will explain that a bit further down. But expect highs generally near 40, except 35 to 40 in the NW and NE corners of the state.
Thursday: Went close to guidance, if not a tad below. Advection is nearly neutral. Expect most highs near 40, w/allowance for a deg or two warmer near I 91.
It should be noted that there is a coastal storm progged by most modeling for the midweek period. Most guidance does take this system harmlessly out to sea, but the trend has been to the NW and we have seen these things come NW before. While not in the fcst right now, it would not surprise me if early next week we are tracking a coastal low. Pcpn type should be snow for most, but mixed would be possible along the S coast. Stay tuned!
The long range looks cold and probably increasingly stormy. It does appear winter is set to arrive in SNE!
Just one graphic today. This map is valid Saturday around noon. Notice how there is snow/mixed precip basically along and N of 84, and this has trended colder.
Currently: Warm front well thru the entire state. We are under the influence of high pressure over NC, which really resembles a summertime Bermuda High. The cold front that will begin to change our wx is way back over Indiana.
Tonight: I think guidance is way too warm. Even though we're in a warm air mass, it's a dry one tonight, and we should be able to radiate very well. Therefore, I've gone solidly colder than NBM guidance and used a "halfway to the dew point" approach, then blended that in with 30% temp guidance. This yields low temps in the low 40s across the state.
Tomorrow: Temps are a bit tricky, because it really depends on when cold air advection begins to set in. This time of yr, it is easier to accomplish than most of the yr. Therefore, guidance could be a bit too warm, so I subtracted a little here and there. Look for highs of 50-55. It is possible we could see highs occur around late morn, and have a steep N-S temp gradient, but I didn't want to get too cute.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The combo of cold air advection and a weak low traversing S PA into SNJ will produce a long duration light to moderate precip event. Heaviest precip prob falls around midday, w/perhaps another burst late at night. But even in between, light precip/drizzle will be falling.
High pressure is located NE of the state, so the highest chance for frozen precip is going to be over E CT. There is no southerly component to the wind at any level to speak of. Therefore, I have done a few things w/the snow fcst for this event. For SW CT, for now, I only have rain mixing with sleet at times and no appreciable accum. For areas along I 84 and North I have mixed pcpn in the fcst, allowing for a period of mostly snow, w/light (1-2") accums. I also have allowed for the possibility for up to 3" and a mainly snow event in Tolland and Windham counties. Now the big ? is what to do with SE CT, i.e. New London and Middlesex counties. Being that they are in E CT, there is some cold air drainage so even those areas could very well see a period of all snow. It may be hard to get the immediate SE coast cold enough for accums, but I could see 1" falling in the interior portions of this county.
Now, what could change this fcst? I'll run the colder and warmer scenarios here, just to get better understanding. If it's warmer than fcst, accums will be limited to elevations above 1000' N of 84 and prob be less than an inch. If it's colder than fcst, then we may need to allow a couple more inches N of 84 and allow for up to 1" all the way to the S coast. One thing that does appear fortunate right now, is that there is a cold layer around 900MB, which is colder than the sfc. This pretty much eliminates any threat of freezing rain. One other note, I do not see any possibility of anyone in the state getting more than 5" out of this storm. That would be the absolute ceiling. The storm just doesn't have tons of moisture to work with. Also, w/relatively low rates, daytime precip, marginal temps, and previously warm ground, accums on roadways should be minimal. However, I don't like to belabor this point, because even a patch of snow/ice on roads can cause problems.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): A pattern much more common for this time of yr sets in.
Sunday: A morning shower leads to clearing skies. Cold air advection will produce wind gusts of 35-40 MPH. W/the combo of fresh cold air advection and the potential for some snowcover either over parts of the state or nearby, I have lowered guidance temps by quite a bit. Look for highs only in the mid 30s. W/the wind, it will feel like it's in the 20s all day!
Monday: Near neutral advection, much calmer winds. Model guidance temps look fine. In fact, I raised them a bit near I 91 corridor. So expect highs generally near 40, except a patch of 40-45 along I 91.
Tuesday: I once again went near or slightly above consensus guidance. High pressure briefly slides offshore, allowing for warmer temps for a day. Look for highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Wednesday: Went just a smidge under guidance for two reasons. First, we'll have weak, but fresh cold air advection. Secondly, it will probably be cloudier than is indicated by the NBM. I will explain that a bit further down. But expect highs generally near 40, except 35 to 40 in the NW and NE corners of the state.
Thursday: Went close to guidance, if not a tad below. Advection is nearly neutral. Expect most highs near 40, w/allowance for a deg or two warmer near I 91.
It should be noted that there is a coastal storm progged by most modeling for the midweek period. Most guidance does take this system harmlessly out to sea, but the trend has been to the NW and we have seen these things come NW before. While not in the fcst right now, it would not surprise me if early next week we are tracking a coastal low. Pcpn type should be snow for most, but mixed would be possible along the S coast. Stay tuned!
The long range looks cold and probably increasingly stormy. It does appear winter is set to arrive in SNE!
Just one graphic today. This map is valid Saturday around noon. Notice how there is snow/mixed precip basically along and N of 84, and this has trended colder.
Anyway, that's all for now! Happy tracking!
-GP!
-GP!
