Disc: Many will enjoy the reprieve from winter for the next ten days or so. No, it isn't going to be 80 degrees, or probably not even 60 degrees, but temps are going to avg above to much above norm and we have zero frozen precip in this fcst.
Currently: High pressure stretching from GA to Nova Scotia then offshore is in great position to begin the return flow phase and start warming us up.
Tonight: Usually when you have conflicting factors, they tend to negate. So when I see great radiative conditions, but warm air advection at the same time, I generally run a neutral fcst w/regards to guidance. So I went very close to guidance, just spread it out a bit in case we do radiate a little, so I went a deg or two warmer in the urban areas, and a deg or two cooler in the valleys and countryside. Most people see lows near 30 degrees, but mid 20s are possible in coldest spots, and temps struggle to get below freezing in the cities.
Tomorrow: Guidance has tended to be too aggressive each day with high temps, partly due to low starting points, partly due to inversion cloudiness. Whatever the reason, I'll go just a touch under guidance tomorrow. Either way, a nice day with highs in the mid 40s.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: I think here we'll see enough of a warm profile aloft and enough mixing to allow temps to reach the guidance fcst. So Fri's highs are right with guidance, generally near 50 degrees.
Long Term: The long term period, from Sat to Wed, will be dominated by above to much above normal temps, and normal to above normal precip (all rain).
For Sat, there is a chc the rain could hold off during the daylight hrs. However, there are timing diffs in models, and I would be committing meteorological negligence to not include at least a 30% POP during the afternoon for the SW 1/2 of the state, so I have done that. Temps are a bit tricky because of this. I generally went a bit under guidance, w/highs in the upper 40s or just kissing 50. However, E of I 91, I could see a patch of low 50s, say, from a few mi inland, to about 15 mi South of I 84. Here we might be in just the right place and right time to achieve max warming.
Unfortunately, for those taking part in NYE activities, it will likely be wet. It won't be overly cold. Rain also doesn't look particularly heavy, but a light to moderate, steady rain is certainly enough to get you wet. Temps probably only drop a few degs overnight, only getting to the mid 40s.
Rain ends Sun morn, prob mid to late morn. There appears to be enough CAPE, esp over SW CT, to include a slight chance of a t-storm as the rain pulls out, so I have done so! After fropa, we could see some wind gusts to 30 MPH. Despite the fact that we'll have "cold" air advection, the "cold" air's origin is northern California, so it won't be very cold. I did go a bit below temp guidance, as is my S.O.P. during episodes of CAA, but even so, highs reach 50 everywhere, with a patch of 50-55 in the I 91 corridor.
Mon will be just a couple deg cooler w/lighter winds. Generally went very close to guidance, but undercut it just a bit in the NW hills. There could be some CU development (or blowoff) in those zones, so that could acct for temps verifying a couple deg lower. Highs generally at least make a run for 50, except mid to upper 40s in the NW hills.
Tue I generally undercut guidance a bit. I think clouds ahead of the next sys increase earlier than NBM output. Generally went 50-52 most of the state, except 46-48 along the S coast, w/developing onshore flow and along and N of I 84 w/cooler starting points. Precip is nowhere near us on Tue, so high confidence in keeping a dry fcst for one more day.
Wed rain arrives late morn to midday. Steadiest and heaviest rain is probably late aftn to early evening. But, as is my usual procedure, I don't want to get too cute w/timing on day 7. So just a generic rain fcst. Despite a very warm fcst, CAPE doesn't look impressive, so no t-storms mentioned. I undercut temp guidance for two reasons. First, you're never sure how warm it can get w/clouds and rain falling. Secondly, I don't ever like to go to extremes on a day 7 fcst until we see which way it trends. So for now, I have generally 50-55 for highs, but 55-60 along the I 91 corridor, but it is very possible this may have to be tweaked up in future fcsts.
LR: It does appear that behind our Wed storm, the pattern begins to alter. While it does not appear to be a bitterly cold pattern, near norm temps in Jan would be cold enough to produce wintry threats, and if it follows the pattern of the last step down, bitter cold could be waiting in the wings further down the road.
I have attached two images, both showing fairly generic rain events for this time of yr. On the second map, valid Wed aftn, you can see chilly air behind the storm beginning to filter in.
That's all for today, take care and see you prob next Fri!
-GP!
-GP!
