The pattern is going to first turn more stormy, which is often indicative of big changes. Then it will turn much colder, but the next week or so is mostly warm (with a cold shot over the weekend).
Currently: High pressure has moved offshore, allowing temps to turn much warmer today.
Tonight: Temps don't move much. We have increasing Southerly flow, combined w/cloudy skies. This is not a recipe for temps to fall. Guidance is always stuck on everything being diurnal, so I went above guidance w/temps. Basically, whatever your temp is now, expect a similar temp tomorrow morn.
Tomorrow: Despite cloudy skies, warm air advection surging ahead of our storm sys will allow temps to reach very warm levels. I went very close to guidance temps, which are in the mid to upper 50s. Because of southerly winds ahead of the next sys, the S coast will see winds blowing off the LI Sound, so that will be the coldest part of the state. Any pcpn ahead of the next sys holds off until night, so I kept the day pd dry.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: This is the first interesting part of the fcst pd coming up. Rainfall/flooding is not a real concern, as the ground is now only partially frozen, and rainfall amounts will be under an inch. The main concern is wind. Numerical guidance, as well as superens products, all point to wind gusts over 50 MPH W of I 91 and over 60 MPH E of I 91. That doesn't really make all that much diff anyway, but either way, winds will be a concern. There is the potential for downed trees and power lines w/this wind. I will post a graphic about this further down. The other interesting aspect of this storm will be the roller coaster temps. Temps will stay steady or even rise a few more deg Thu night. A few spots in the state could hit 60 degrees! Then, after the strong cold frontal passage, temps will plummet right thru the day on Fri, w/temps in the 30s everywhere by sundown! Because of the extreme, non-diurnal range of temps, guidance was completely ignored. Temps were calculated using a blend of 850 MB temps and gridded data. Winds will stay gusty Fri. Although they will not be as strong, some gusts to 40-50 MPH will still be possible. This could hamper any cleanup efforts.
Long Term: (Sat and beyond):
For Sat, once again the main concern will be wind. An Arctic front will arrive from midday to early afternoon. This front could contain wind gusts between 40 and 50 MPH along it. Again, while not necessarily in the "damaging" category, isolated damage is possible, and this could once again hamper ongoing cleanup efforts. The cold front should not have much moisture with it. However, because of steep lapse rates, I did include a 40 POP for snow showers over NW CT (basically N of the Merritt and W of 91) and a chance for a localized squall. I included a 20 POP for snow showers E of 91 away from the coast. Near the coast, I just have a chance of a flurry. Any squalls could produce whiteout conditions. However, none should last more than 5-10 mins. As for Sat's temps, I went near guidance everywhere, except a smidge above along I 91. So highs generally near 40, except maybe 40-45 along I 91.
For Sun, after a cold start, as high press moves overhead, temps should rise fairly rapidly. Highs statewide should be near 40, which is right in line with guidance.
For Mon, w/high press moving offshore, it should once again turn much warmer. Even though clouds should increase, temps should make the low 50s in most places, except cooler along the S coast, where the southerly flow will be blowing off the LI sound.
The next sys effects the state Tue. For now, I am going pretty generic w/the wording and p-type. I will just call for rain across the entire state, and do my normal thing of going a bit below temp guidance due to clouds and precip. It should be noted, however, that there has been a trend toward colder solutions w/this sys. Later crews may need to watch for the potential for mixed pcpn across our northern 3 counties (Tolland, Windham, and Litchfield). But w/the sys still being six days out and still trending, I am not going to go crazy w/that yet. As mentioned, I went a few deg blo temp guidance, and then trended it even colder than that to try to compensate for trends. I have highs mostly in the mid to upper 40s, but already lowered that to the low 40s in the northern 3 counties.
For Wed, we should be in between systems. So we'll call it mostly cloudy, as clouds leave from one sys as soon as they arrive from the next one. It should be very warm, but went just under guidance, since it's so far out, just out of an abundance of caution. Even so, expect most highs in the low 50s, except possibly cooler along the S coast, once again owing to winds off the LI Sound.
In the longer range, the Alaskan Ridge is going to become a bigger player in our wx. As this happens, you'll see more high press across Southern Canada, which forces more cold air into the Eastern CONUS. This will result in a colder pattern overall.
Now, let's look at a couple graphical images displaying this week's wx. First is a map showing wind potential overnight Thu night into Fri morn. Anywhere in or along the purple coloring would have a high probability of damaging winds, while the greener shades are lighter, but still gusty.
Currently: High pressure has moved offshore, allowing temps to turn much warmer today.
Tonight: Temps don't move much. We have increasing Southerly flow, combined w/cloudy skies. This is not a recipe for temps to fall. Guidance is always stuck on everything being diurnal, so I went above guidance w/temps. Basically, whatever your temp is now, expect a similar temp tomorrow morn.
Tomorrow: Despite cloudy skies, warm air advection surging ahead of our storm sys will allow temps to reach very warm levels. I went very close to guidance temps, which are in the mid to upper 50s. Because of southerly winds ahead of the next sys, the S coast will see winds blowing off the LI Sound, so that will be the coldest part of the state. Any pcpn ahead of the next sys holds off until night, so I kept the day pd dry.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: This is the first interesting part of the fcst pd coming up. Rainfall/flooding is not a real concern, as the ground is now only partially frozen, and rainfall amounts will be under an inch. The main concern is wind. Numerical guidance, as well as superens products, all point to wind gusts over 50 MPH W of I 91 and over 60 MPH E of I 91. That doesn't really make all that much diff anyway, but either way, winds will be a concern. There is the potential for downed trees and power lines w/this wind. I will post a graphic about this further down. The other interesting aspect of this storm will be the roller coaster temps. Temps will stay steady or even rise a few more deg Thu night. A few spots in the state could hit 60 degrees! Then, after the strong cold frontal passage, temps will plummet right thru the day on Fri, w/temps in the 30s everywhere by sundown! Because of the extreme, non-diurnal range of temps, guidance was completely ignored. Temps were calculated using a blend of 850 MB temps and gridded data. Winds will stay gusty Fri. Although they will not be as strong, some gusts to 40-50 MPH will still be possible. This could hamper any cleanup efforts.
Long Term: (Sat and beyond):
For Sat, once again the main concern will be wind. An Arctic front will arrive from midday to early afternoon. This front could contain wind gusts between 40 and 50 MPH along it. Again, while not necessarily in the "damaging" category, isolated damage is possible, and this could once again hamper ongoing cleanup efforts. The cold front should not have much moisture with it. However, because of steep lapse rates, I did include a 40 POP for snow showers over NW CT (basically N of the Merritt and W of 91) and a chance for a localized squall. I included a 20 POP for snow showers E of 91 away from the coast. Near the coast, I just have a chance of a flurry. Any squalls could produce whiteout conditions. However, none should last more than 5-10 mins. As for Sat's temps, I went near guidance everywhere, except a smidge above along I 91. So highs generally near 40, except maybe 40-45 along I 91.
For Sun, after a cold start, as high press moves overhead, temps should rise fairly rapidly. Highs statewide should be near 40, which is right in line with guidance.
For Mon, w/high press moving offshore, it should once again turn much warmer. Even though clouds should increase, temps should make the low 50s in most places, except cooler along the S coast, where the southerly flow will be blowing off the LI sound.
The next sys effects the state Tue. For now, I am going pretty generic w/the wording and p-type. I will just call for rain across the entire state, and do my normal thing of going a bit below temp guidance due to clouds and precip. It should be noted, however, that there has been a trend toward colder solutions w/this sys. Later crews may need to watch for the potential for mixed pcpn across our northern 3 counties (Tolland, Windham, and Litchfield). But w/the sys still being six days out and still trending, I am not going to go crazy w/that yet. As mentioned, I went a few deg blo temp guidance, and then trended it even colder than that to try to compensate for trends. I have highs mostly in the mid to upper 40s, but already lowered that to the low 40s in the northern 3 counties.
For Wed, we should be in between systems. So we'll call it mostly cloudy, as clouds leave from one sys as soon as they arrive from the next one. It should be very warm, but went just under guidance, since it's so far out, just out of an abundance of caution. Even so, expect most highs in the low 50s, except possibly cooler along the S coast, once again owing to winds off the LI Sound.
In the longer range, the Alaskan Ridge is going to become a bigger player in our wx. As this happens, you'll see more high press across Southern Canada, which forces more cold air into the Eastern CONUS. This will result in a colder pattern overall.
Now, let's look at a couple graphical images displaying this week's wx. First is a map showing wind potential overnight Thu night into Fri morn. Anywhere in or along the purple coloring would have a high probability of damaging winds, while the greener shades are lighter, but still gusty.
Finally, this last map shows the rain for Tue. It is a general, widespread rain- just a gloomy, late winter's rainy day for now, nothing extreme.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
