Enjoy the warm wx over the next 8-10 days (not including today, obviously), because a big change appears to be forming after that.
Currently: High pressure stretching from Quebec to VA is keeping the area high and dry (but cold) today. A warm front over Michigan will move across the area overnight into tomorrow morning.
Tonight: W/clouds and developing warm air advection, temps won't drop a whole lot. I went near guidance for the most part for temps, which is lows of 30-35. The warm front may bring a quick snow shower, generally I 84 on north, but moisture is limited, so expecting very little or nothing in the way of accumulations.
Tomorrow: Sunny and pleasant. Went below guidance, because I think it blasts the warm front thru too fast and tries to warm us up and clear us out too fast. So highs of 40-45.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Much warmer, near record warm temps possible Sat. Temps will really surge ahead of our next cold front. Temps prob don't drop much Fri night, then on Sat will really rise. I have limited any rain chances to just a slight chance during the day on Sat. It's possible a shower could pop up at any time ahead of the cold front, but the day period should largely be dry. I've gone a bit under guidance w/temps, just to be on the conservative side, for example, in case there are more clouds than modeled. But this still gives me highs near 60 everywhere, w/upper 50s on the S coast, due to Southerly onshore flow. This could even still be too cool!
A shot of rain will accompany the cold frontal passage Sat night. I have only mentioned a slight chance of t-storms, because it's rare to actually get lightning this time of yr. But lightning or not, it could be one of those fropas that gets warned w/o lightning, Along and behind the front, expect a period of 45-50 MPH wind gusts even outside of any convection!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The long term looks generally pleasant, w/above norm temps. It will be very windy early Sun behind the front. Sun will also be much cooler, but it won't be all that cold, since the air is of Pacific origin. I did go below guidance, due to cold air advection, and have highs of 40-45. It is possible that the I 91 corridor downslopes their way to a few deg warmer. Winds do diminish, but still gust to 30-35 the rest of the day.
For Mon, expect sunny and warmer wx. I followed guidance pretty closely for temps, so I have highs around 50, with an area of low 50s along the I 91 corridor, again allowing for some downsloping.
For Tue, a carbon copy w/regards to both temps and sensible wx to Mon. I followed guidance pretty closely for temps again, and adjusted them a bit in spots to match Mon's temps.
For Wed, I went a bit below guidance on temps, as various uncertainties begin to creep into the fcst, that would lower temps by a few deg, such as sea breezes and cloud cover increasing. So I have the state basically painted in upper 40s. Later crews can raise temps if needed.
For Thu, a weak wave passes thru in the morn. Given fcst uncertainties this far out, I just have 30-40ish POPS statewide. The air mass behind this wave is warmer than the air mass in front of it. However, for now, I cut a few deg off guidance, just in case we're too fast w/the wave and clouds or rain linger later into the day. Later crews can again raise temps a bit if needed. For now, I have temps sim to Mon and Tue, if not a deg warmer in spots, but that may not yet be warm enough.
As we head into the longer range, it is appearing more and more likely that a large scale pattern change is going to develop a few days beyond the range of this fcst. So enjoy the wx we have now, because changes will be coming!
There will only be one graphic today, and it will show Sat night's frontal passage. There really isn't much going on this week! This map shows Sat night's fropa. Take a look at how fast the temp will change behind it... this is indicative of a drastic frontal passage w/strong winds and maybe even convection!
Currently: High pressure stretching from Quebec to VA is keeping the area high and dry (but cold) today. A warm front over Michigan will move across the area overnight into tomorrow morning.
Tonight: W/clouds and developing warm air advection, temps won't drop a whole lot. I went near guidance for the most part for temps, which is lows of 30-35. The warm front may bring a quick snow shower, generally I 84 on north, but moisture is limited, so expecting very little or nothing in the way of accumulations.
Tomorrow: Sunny and pleasant. Went below guidance, because I think it blasts the warm front thru too fast and tries to warm us up and clear us out too fast. So highs of 40-45.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Much warmer, near record warm temps possible Sat. Temps will really surge ahead of our next cold front. Temps prob don't drop much Fri night, then on Sat will really rise. I have limited any rain chances to just a slight chance during the day on Sat. It's possible a shower could pop up at any time ahead of the cold front, but the day period should largely be dry. I've gone a bit under guidance w/temps, just to be on the conservative side, for example, in case there are more clouds than modeled. But this still gives me highs near 60 everywhere, w/upper 50s on the S coast, due to Southerly onshore flow. This could even still be too cool!
A shot of rain will accompany the cold frontal passage Sat night. I have only mentioned a slight chance of t-storms, because it's rare to actually get lightning this time of yr. But lightning or not, it could be one of those fropas that gets warned w/o lightning, Along and behind the front, expect a period of 45-50 MPH wind gusts even outside of any convection!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The long term looks generally pleasant, w/above norm temps. It will be very windy early Sun behind the front. Sun will also be much cooler, but it won't be all that cold, since the air is of Pacific origin. I did go below guidance, due to cold air advection, and have highs of 40-45. It is possible that the I 91 corridor downslopes their way to a few deg warmer. Winds do diminish, but still gust to 30-35 the rest of the day.
For Mon, expect sunny and warmer wx. I followed guidance pretty closely for temps, so I have highs around 50, with an area of low 50s along the I 91 corridor, again allowing for some downsloping.
For Tue, a carbon copy w/regards to both temps and sensible wx to Mon. I followed guidance pretty closely for temps again, and adjusted them a bit in spots to match Mon's temps.
For Wed, I went a bit below guidance on temps, as various uncertainties begin to creep into the fcst, that would lower temps by a few deg, such as sea breezes and cloud cover increasing. So I have the state basically painted in upper 40s. Later crews can raise temps if needed.
For Thu, a weak wave passes thru in the morn. Given fcst uncertainties this far out, I just have 30-40ish POPS statewide. The air mass behind this wave is warmer than the air mass in front of it. However, for now, I cut a few deg off guidance, just in case we're too fast w/the wave and clouds or rain linger later into the day. Later crews can again raise temps a bit if needed. For now, I have temps sim to Mon and Tue, if not a deg warmer in spots, but that may not yet be warm enough.
As we head into the longer range, it is appearing more and more likely that a large scale pattern change is going to develop a few days beyond the range of this fcst. So enjoy the wx we have now, because changes will be coming!
There will only be one graphic today, and it will show Sat night's frontal passage. There really isn't much going on this week! This map shows Sat night's fropa. Take a look at how fast the temp will change behind it... this is indicative of a drastic frontal passage w/strong winds and maybe even convection!
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
