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Warm start to November likely as quiet conditions prevail...

10/30/2022

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Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.

It's hard to believe that November and the holiday season are almost here! After a colder than normal start to the month of October, the late month warm up has brought us within a degree of normal for the month. Currently BDL (Hartford) is +0.8 for the month while BDR (Bridgeport) is -1.0 for the month. For most of us, our coldest nights of the season just occurred, with most of us away from the shore hitting freezing this morning.

At some point, the battle between winter and fall will begin, but it won't be anytime soon. For those that like the transition between the seasons, hopefully you enjoyed the landscape today. 
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Frosty scene this morning in East Hartford. 

Halloween
The last day of October won't be as nice as this weekend, but the trick or treating forecast isn't nearly as bad as it looked around a week ago. Tomorrow we will see more clouds through the day as a weak warm front approaches. Highs look to be in the lower 60s, which is slightly above normal this time of year. While there may be some isolated showers tomorrow evening, virtually everyone should be dry. Showers don't really move into the state until around midnight. Even then, it doesn't look like a big deal. Temperatures should be in the 50s, making for a decent evening. 
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Above: Latest high resolution NAM run showing a dry Halloween with showers greeting us for the start of November on Tuesday. 

Tuesday
The first day of November looks unsettled as we see overcast conditions alongside off and on showers during the day. The "heaviest" of the rain looks to be in the overnight and Tuesday morning hours. Overall, it doesn't look like a significant rain event. 

Wednesday-Saturday
Once we get through Tuesday, we should be treated to another stretch of quiet and beautiful weather, albeit warmer than normal. A sprawling ridge will be in control, meaning high pressure and dry conditions. Highs through the end of the work week look to be in the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures should stay above normal through this period as well. 

The start of the weekend looks quite nice, with sunny and 70s possible on Saturday!  
Picture
Above: the GEFS depiction of the upper level pattern through the first few days of November. It looks to favor warmth and quiet conditions overall. There are no signs of a pattern shift toward colder weather through the next week to ten days at least. 

Sunday
By the end of the weekend, we could have another front or weak system pushing toward the region. For now, I will leave the shower chances lower but we can probably expect more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. Still much warmer than normal, however. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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