Good evening and happy meteorological winter from Southern Connecticut Weather!
December is here and for once it actually feels wintry outside. Many of us saw first flakes this week, and some of our highest elevations saw some minor measurable snow. The incredibly stable pattern that brought us the warmest November on record and driest fall (September-November) on record has radically changed, driven by a major flip in the Pacific that has dislodged cold into the continental US.
This pattern--featuring colder than normal temperatures (on balance) and continued precipitation chances--is likely to hold on until the middle of the month. For the first time in quite some time, the Climate Prediction Center believes a winter month has greater odds to finish below normal in our neck of the woods. It's important to remember that cold does not automatically mean snow, but this week it looks like the pattern is trying to bring back a seemingly near extinct weather system--a clipper.
December is here and for once it actually feels wintry outside. Many of us saw first flakes this week, and some of our highest elevations saw some minor measurable snow. The incredibly stable pattern that brought us the warmest November on record and driest fall (September-November) on record has radically changed, driven by a major flip in the Pacific that has dislodged cold into the continental US.
This pattern--featuring colder than normal temperatures (on balance) and continued precipitation chances--is likely to hold on until the middle of the month. For the first time in quite some time, the Climate Prediction Center believes a winter month has greater odds to finish below normal in our neck of the woods. It's important to remember that cold does not automatically mean snow, but this week it looks like the pattern is trying to bring back a seemingly near extinct weather system--a clipper.
Above: the CPC temperature outlook for December. Note that these are probabilities, but even a few weeks ago the CPC had December warmer than normal.
Just as a reminder, for Hartford at the start of December the average high is 45, while the normal low is 29. At Bridgeport, the December 1st average high is 48, with a normal low of 34. We will be well below normal at times in the first half of this month.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the work week is cold and quiet. For inland areas, we will see highs in the mid to upper 30s, while the shoreline could be a little warmer, but not by much with highs in the upper 30s to around 40. With a fairly persistent northwest flow and the lake effect machine gradually slowing down, there could be some random flurries in NW CT. Nothing meaningful.
Wednesday-Thursday
Wednesday should be a fine day for the most part, and I do not expect any travel issues. By the overnight period we should see our clipper move into the region. We have to watch to see if this becomes a little more amplified over the next few days on the guidance, but for now it looks like a weak system that will bring our first measurable snow to many in CT overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Despite the colder than normal pattern, a weak system and southerly flow ahead of the precipitation make temperatures look marginal, especially in southern CT. That would cut back on snow totals.
For now, I expect a general coating to 2" of snow, with light coatings in southern CT and more measurable the further north and NW you are. If this requires a map, we'll issue one. The system clears Thursday, and we get a reinforcing shot of cold air in its wake. It's too soon to know if there will be widespread delays, but they could be possible in northern CT.
Just as a reminder, for Hartford at the start of December the average high is 45, while the normal low is 29. At Bridgeport, the December 1st average high is 48, with a normal low of 34. We will be well below normal at times in the first half of this month.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the work week is cold and quiet. For inland areas, we will see highs in the mid to upper 30s, while the shoreline could be a little warmer, but not by much with highs in the upper 30s to around 40. With a fairly persistent northwest flow and the lake effect machine gradually slowing down, there could be some random flurries in NW CT. Nothing meaningful.
Wednesday-Thursday
Wednesday should be a fine day for the most part, and I do not expect any travel issues. By the overnight period we should see our clipper move into the region. We have to watch to see if this becomes a little more amplified over the next few days on the guidance, but for now it looks like a weak system that will bring our first measurable snow to many in CT overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Despite the colder than normal pattern, a weak system and southerly flow ahead of the precipitation make temperatures look marginal, especially in southern CT. That would cut back on snow totals.
For now, I expect a general coating to 2" of snow, with light coatings in southern CT and more measurable the further north and NW you are. If this requires a map, we'll issue one. The system clears Thursday, and we get a reinforcing shot of cold air in its wake. It's too soon to know if there will be widespread delays, but they could be possible in northern CT.
Above: the latest GFS depicting the marginal nature of temperatures and precipitation on Thursday.
Below: the latest NAM with a little more robust depiction of the clipper system. Note the more coherent precipitation shield, at least early on. This helps cool the column and bring snow further south.
Below: the latest NAM with a little more robust depiction of the clipper system. Note the more coherent precipitation shield, at least early on. This helps cool the column and bring snow further south.
Friday-Sunday
The end of the week looks cold and quiet again, though there is a faint signal that another system could try to pop near the very end of the forecast period. IF it did, the airmass looks more favorable for snow, but a system is far from guaranteed or even likely at this time. Highs statewide look to be in the 30s, well below normal once again.
Below are the 12z EPS temperature anomalies at the surface. For winter lovers, you need these kind of patterns to produce if you want to have a shot at a normal snowfall winter.
The end of the week looks cold and quiet again, though there is a faint signal that another system could try to pop near the very end of the forecast period. IF it did, the airmass looks more favorable for snow, but a system is far from guaranteed or even likely at this time. Highs statewide look to be in the 30s, well below normal once again.
Below are the 12z EPS temperature anomalies at the surface. For winter lovers, you need these kind of patterns to produce if you want to have a shot at a normal snowfall winter.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds with snow likely late. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold with snow showers possible. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Sunday: Partly sunny with snow possible. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds with snow likely late. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold with snow showers possible. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Sunday: Partly sunny with snow possible. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
