Good morning from SCW!
I couldn't get to this until early morning, but here's the forecast for your week ahead! The cold of last week recedes temporarily as a pattern shift allows for warmth to start the week and a significant storm by midweek. The midweek storm is likely to bring significant rainfall, but what I'm really watching is the wind potential.
I couldn't get to this until early morning, but here's the forecast for your week ahead! The cold of last week recedes temporarily as a pattern shift allows for warmth to start the week and a significant storm by midweek. The midweek storm is likely to bring significant rainfall, but what I'm really watching is the wind potential.
Above: the 18z EPS depicting the 500mb pattern progression from last week through the week ahead. Note how the ridging in the west at the start of the animation creates the ability for cold to flow into the east, but the pattern becomes less stable as we shift to ridging over the east leading to warmth, a storm, and then more cold back in the east. How this pattern cycles will be important as we get closer to the holidays.
Monday-Tuesday
This is an active week, with multiple chances of rain. A weak system will approach the region, with rain overspreading the state during the afternoon. Expect a wet evening commute, but the temperature will be too warm for any frozen precipitation. This is a quick mover, so while showers may be around during the evening we should be clear Monday night.
Tuesday looks quiet and warmer than normal as our next system approaches.
Monday-Tuesday
This is an active week, with multiple chances of rain. A weak system will approach the region, with rain overspreading the state during the afternoon. Expect a wet evening commute, but the temperature will be too warm for any frozen precipitation. This is a quick mover, so while showers may be around during the evening we should be clear Monday night.
Tuesday looks quiet and warmer than normal as our next system approaches.
Above: the 00z GFS depicting the weak system impacting CT later today.
Wednesday-Thursday
I'm declaring Wednesday a SCW Period of Interest. In recent years, we've had powerful winter storms, but most of those storms were "screamers", i.e. storms that cut to our west, putting us in the warm and windy sector. It looks like the pattern continues with another storm this week.
Rain is likely to start in the predawn hours of Wednesday, as low pressure rides up a slow moving boundary that will divide the warmth from the cold. As you will see below, we will be on the warm sector, and there's a strong signal for significant rain, on the order of 2-4 inches. As the storm moves up the boundary and rapidly deepens we will watch for a strong low level jet that could bring significant wind. The further west the storm trends, the more likely a significant wind event will be possible in CT.
As it stands, the biggest risk is in eastern CT and further east. Some guidance shows strong mixing of the wind aloft, and with winds possibly 60-70 knots above the surface, this is something to watch. For now, it's worth caution, and we will continue to follow trends.
Wednesday-Thursday
I'm declaring Wednesday a SCW Period of Interest. In recent years, we've had powerful winter storms, but most of those storms were "screamers", i.e. storms that cut to our west, putting us in the warm and windy sector. It looks like the pattern continues with another storm this week.
Rain is likely to start in the predawn hours of Wednesday, as low pressure rides up a slow moving boundary that will divide the warmth from the cold. As you will see below, we will be on the warm sector, and there's a strong signal for significant rain, on the order of 2-4 inches. As the storm moves up the boundary and rapidly deepens we will watch for a strong low level jet that could bring significant wind. The further west the storm trends, the more likely a significant wind event will be possible in CT.
As it stands, the biggest risk is in eastern CT and further east. Some guidance shows strong mixing of the wind aloft, and with winds possibly 60-70 knots above the surface, this is something to watch. For now, it's worth caution, and we will continue to follow trends.
Above: the 00z GFS depicting the progression of the storm, which brings heavy rain over the state and cold air in the wake of the storm.
Below: the 18z Euro depicting the progression of the storm, which very heavy rain and significant wind as the storm passes over the region.
Below: the 18z Euro depicting the progression of the storm, which very heavy rain and significant wind as the storm passes over the region.
Thursday-Sunday
We quiet down in the wake of this big storm, and the colder than normal temperatures return. As I mentioned at the start of this discussion, the pattern looks to cycle frequently, so this could be a fairly brief intrusion. By Sunday, we may be watching another coastal storm.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday: SCW Period of Interest. Rain and wind. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Thursday: Decreasing clouds, breezy and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Grading Last Week's Clipper
The first forecast for our first measurable snow event was ok, but left something to be desired. We had 1-3" with isolated 4" amounts in hill towns, and that was too conservative. While our C-2" zone worked for most of the state, there were some places that ended up higher.
I regret the Trace zone, as there were places in SE CT that saw snow accumulations and places in south central and SW CT that saw northing, which was odd. I'm thinking the radar returns weren't strong enough to deliver a cold enough column for measurable snow. The hill town accumulations hurt the grade significantly, Timing worked well with the storm starting and ending on time. Impact was higher than I thought, particularly because many ended up at the higher end of the forecast range, and for the hill towns, well over. Meh.
Timing: A-
Accumulation: C (double weighed)
Impact: D
Overall Grade: C
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
We quiet down in the wake of this big storm, and the colder than normal temperatures return. As I mentioned at the start of this discussion, the pattern looks to cycle frequently, so this could be a fairly brief intrusion. By Sunday, we may be watching another coastal storm.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday: SCW Period of Interest. Rain and wind. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Thursday: Decreasing clouds, breezy and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Grading Last Week's Clipper
The first forecast for our first measurable snow event was ok, but left something to be desired. We had 1-3" with isolated 4" amounts in hill towns, and that was too conservative. While our C-2" zone worked for most of the state, there were some places that ended up higher.
I regret the Trace zone, as there were places in SE CT that saw snow accumulations and places in south central and SW CT that saw northing, which was odd. I'm thinking the radar returns weren't strong enough to deliver a cold enough column for measurable snow. The hill town accumulations hurt the grade significantly, Timing worked well with the storm starting and ending on time. Impact was higher than I thought, particularly because many ended up at the higher end of the forecast range, and for the hill towns, well over. Meh.
Timing: A-
Accumulation: C (double weighed)
Impact: D
Overall Grade: C
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
