Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It has been a wet but very quiet spring so far, and that's allowed us to take a break from our more formal writing. While things continue to look quiet, as the primary forecaster these days it's time to get back into the rhythm as we head toward the start of meteorological summer in just a few short weeks.
May is right around the corner, and we will go from our near to below normal period of temperatures to warmer than normal in the coming week. We may however seesaw right back to below normal. As we head into graduation (and growing) season, it'd be good to dry out and get some extended periods of sun and seasonable warmth.
Let's dive in.
It has been a wet but very quiet spring so far, and that's allowed us to take a break from our more formal writing. While things continue to look quiet, as the primary forecaster these days it's time to get back into the rhythm as we head toward the start of meteorological summer in just a few short weeks.
May is right around the corner, and we will go from our near to below normal period of temperatures to warmer than normal in the coming week. We may however seesaw right back to below normal. As we head into graduation (and growing) season, it'd be good to dry out and get some extended periods of sun and seasonable warmth.
Let's dive in.
Above: an NRCC analysis of rainfall departures since January 1, 2024. It has been exceptionally wet this year, and as everyone knows, this wet weather goes back to last summer as well. We could use a break.
Monday
Tomorrow should be the warmest day of the week. High pressure will be in control again tomorrow, and while we may have to deal with showers in the predawn hours and with early low clouds much like today, we should get clearing over the course of the day. I expect highs in the upper 70s for interior CT, with a chance of 80 if we can get the clouds to burn off sooner in the morning.
Along the shoreline, expect another sea breeze, but it should be a nice day with temperatures a bit cooler than inland. Like the last few days, there will be a chance of showers late in the day and overnight, but we're not expecting anything significant.
With a warmer regime in place, even with the cooler temperatures I'll explain below, we're not expecting any frost or freeze risk this week.
Monday
Tomorrow should be the warmest day of the week. High pressure will be in control again tomorrow, and while we may have to deal with showers in the predawn hours and with early low clouds much like today, we should get clearing over the course of the day. I expect highs in the upper 70s for interior CT, with a chance of 80 if we can get the clouds to burn off sooner in the morning.
Along the shoreline, expect another sea breeze, but it should be a nice day with temperatures a bit cooler than inland. Like the last few days, there will be a chance of showers late in the day and overnight, but we're not expecting anything significant.
With a warmer regime in place, even with the cooler temperatures I'll explain below, we're not expecting any frost or freeze risk this week.
Above: 18z GFS depiction of temperatures tomorrow afternoon. The Euro also agrees with interior highs in the upper 70s, but we could see temperatures approach 80 if we get enough sun.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Following Monday's warmth, we will be visited by a springtime staple--the backdoor cold front. These are boundaries that can bring drastically different weather conditions, where one side of the boundary is quite chilly and the other side is much warmer. On Tuesday and Wednesday (and maybe beyond) we are likely to be on the cool side of the boundary.
Tuesday should bring more cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 60s. There will be shower chances through the day. It won't be raining the entire time, but it'll be a good idea to have the umbrella handy. Some weak thunderstorms are possible late in NW CT.
Wednesday is more tricky, but becoming more likely. The latest GFS wants to bring in even colder air, with could result in highs in the 40s to near 50 verbatim. I'm not a believer it gets that cold, but expect another cloudy day with colder than normal highs. The image below, a GFS depiction shows what would be wetter and cold day. Remember that at this time of year average high temperatures are around 65 degrees.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Following Monday's warmth, we will be visited by a springtime staple--the backdoor cold front. These are boundaries that can bring drastically different weather conditions, where one side of the boundary is quite chilly and the other side is much warmer. On Tuesday and Wednesday (and maybe beyond) we are likely to be on the cool side of the boundary.
Tuesday should bring more cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 60s. There will be shower chances through the day. It won't be raining the entire time, but it'll be a good idea to have the umbrella handy. Some weak thunderstorms are possible late in NW CT.
Wednesday is more tricky, but becoming more likely. The latest GFS wants to bring in even colder air, with could result in highs in the 40s to near 50 verbatim. I'm not a believer it gets that cold, but expect another cloudy day with colder than normal highs. The image below, a GFS depiction shows what would be wetter and cold day. Remember that at this time of year average high temperatures are around 65 degrees.
Thursday-Friday
The end of the work week is looking drier but there are still significant differences in where the backdoor front sets up. The GFS keeps us warmer and the Euro keeps us colder. Each are pretty dry, so that gives me a little more confidence in at least that aspect of the forecast. For now, I am going to split the difference and keep highs close to, but below, climatological normal.
In the European depiction below, note the wind barbs and how frequently they shift. It's going to be a battle between late spring warmth and mid spring chill. Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
The end of the work week is looking drier but there are still significant differences in where the backdoor front sets up. The GFS keeps us warmer and the Euro keeps us colder. Each are pretty dry, so that gives me a little more confidence in at least that aspect of the forecast. For now, I am going to split the difference and keep highs close to, but below, climatological normal.
In the European depiction below, note the wind barbs and how frequently they shift. It's going to be a battle between late spring warmth and mid spring chill. Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend has a bit more clarity than the uncertain work week, as we should be dealing with another front. This should be a cold front working its way through the region, but timing at this point is somewhat uncertain. For now, I'm going to go with a late Saturday passage, with highs in the seasonable range.
The Dailies
Monday: Cloudy with showers early followed by decreasing clouds during the day and increasing clouds late. Highs in the upper 70s to 80 inland and low to mid 70s at the shore (exception SE CT). Chance of showers 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of showers 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of showers 50%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds and showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 60%
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The weekend has a bit more clarity than the uncertain work week, as we should be dealing with another front. This should be a cold front working its way through the region, but timing at this point is somewhat uncertain. For now, I'm going to go with a late Saturday passage, with highs in the seasonable range.
The Dailies
Monday: Cloudy with showers early followed by decreasing clouds during the day and increasing clouds late. Highs in the upper 70s to 80 inland and low to mid 70s at the shore (exception SE CT). Chance of showers 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of showers 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of showers 50%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds and showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 60%
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
