Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Honestly, I should have done the annual "March Toward Spring" post over a week ago, but I just didn't have time. It doesn't feel as relevant after our big warm up, but it's true...winter's grip on us is weakening.
It just won't feel that way the majority of March.
Let's talk about our active week ahead.
Honestly, I should have done the annual "March Toward Spring" post over a week ago, but I just didn't have time. It doesn't feel as relevant after our big warm up, but it's true...winter's grip on us is weakening.
It just won't feel that way the majority of March.
Let's talk about our active week ahead.
Above: the main driver for the weather in our week ahead. A historic blizzard is hitting the Midwest and will bring an extremely impressive cold front through the eastern U.S., but not before delivering severe weather to the Mid-Atlantic and south and heavy rain here. The image above is an approximate radar depiction Monday morning.
Monday-Tuesday
As mentioned above, the coming cold front will mean business. Long before that however, we will get a pre-frontal train of moisture that drives its way into the state. The models are very impressive with rain overspreading the state shortly after midnight, with heavy rain moving into the state during the predawn hours Monday. It won't rain heavily all the time, but repeated waves of heavy rain and thunderstorms will move into the state over the day Monday. Then late Monday night and early Tuesday will see the cold front move through, bringing a final line of heavy rain and storms.
Monday-Tuesday
As mentioned above, the coming cold front will mean business. Long before that however, we will get a pre-frontal train of moisture that drives its way into the state. The models are very impressive with rain overspreading the state shortly after midnight, with heavy rain moving into the state during the predawn hours Monday. It won't rain heavily all the time, but repeated waves of heavy rain and thunderstorms will move into the state over the day Monday. Then late Monday night and early Tuesday will see the cold front move through, bringing a final line of heavy rain and storms.
Above: the 06z Euro depiction of Monday-Tuesday.
The guidance overall has been bullish with rainfall, with 2" to as much as over 4" possible.
The guidance overall has been bullish with rainfall, with 2" to as much as over 4" possible.
With the models honing in on a precipitation maximum over Connecticut, I am going to go with a 2-4" forecast for rain. Keep in mind that the convective nature of the rainfall means that some spots could see higher amounts while other towns end up slightly below 2" overall.
With this much rainfall, flooding is possible--especially in poor drainage areas and basements. I think flood watches will be expanded in the state today, but even if not, be aware of the flood risk.
I do not expect severe weather with the thunderstorms. That risk is further south.
Strong winds however will be possible. Guidance has an impressive jet moving across the region, but the strongest wind aloft looks to be just to our east. This is something we'll be watching closely, because if we're well mixed in the atmosphere the 925mb winds in the image below are still very impressive.
With this much rainfall, flooding is possible--especially in poor drainage areas and basements. I think flood watches will be expanded in the state today, but even if not, be aware of the flood risk.
I do not expect severe weather with the thunderstorms. That risk is further south.
Strong winds however will be possible. Guidance has an impressive jet moving across the region, but the strongest wind aloft looks to be just to our east. This is something we'll be watching closely, because if we're well mixed in the atmosphere the 925mb winds in the image below are still very impressive.
I think peak wind gusts tomorrow and early Tuesday will be between 45-55mph, with the least wind in NW CT. Isolated to scattered power outages will be possible.
Tuesday may start breezy, but will be a much better day (albeit much colder) as the front departs and we dry out.
Wednesday-Friday
In the wake of our front, things quiet down, but will give us whiplash as the cold returns. It's unclear how long the cold lasts, but Wednesday looks cold with highs struggling in the 30s for most and lows well below normal--perhaps the teens into the low 20s. Thursday and Friday look a tick warmer, but still lower than the normal highs this time of year, which is the upper 40s to near 50.
Tuesday may start breezy, but will be a much better day (albeit much colder) as the front departs and we dry out.
Wednesday-Friday
In the wake of our front, things quiet down, but will give us whiplash as the cold returns. It's unclear how long the cold lasts, but Wednesday looks cold with highs struggling in the 30s for most and lows well below normal--perhaps the teens into the low 20s. Thursday and Friday look a tick warmer, but still lower than the normal highs this time of year, which is the upper 40s to near 50.
Above: the 12z GFS depiction of temperatures between Tuesday afternoon and early Saturday morning. We gradually warm up through Friday from our cold blast, but the cold press on Saturday is essential to the weekend forecast.
Saturday-Sunday
The week is likely to end with stormy conditions, but there is still a lot to sort out. The global guidance--both the legacy and AI versions of the Euro and GFS, have some type of clipper system zip down from Canada on Saturday as another press of cold comes in, but the timing of the cold and overall upper level setup is key to what we see.
While the Euro is slower with the cold and more hostile to redevelopment off the coast of the clipper, the other guidance leans (for now) toward a faster press of cold and some redevelopment, which gives us a chance for snow. Now that we're moving into the second half of March, snow climatology becomes hostile, so if this signal is real it may very well be winter's last stand.
Euro
Saturday-Sunday
The week is likely to end with stormy conditions, but there is still a lot to sort out. The global guidance--both the legacy and AI versions of the Euro and GFS, have some type of clipper system zip down from Canada on Saturday as another press of cold comes in, but the timing of the cold and overall upper level setup is key to what we see.
While the Euro is slower with the cold and more hostile to redevelopment off the coast of the clipper, the other guidance leans (for now) toward a faster press of cold and some redevelopment, which gives us a chance for snow. Now that we're moving into the second half of March, snow climatology becomes hostile, so if this signal is real it may very well be winter's last stand.
Euro
Euro AI--which would be rain here and snow just to the north.
Contrast with the GFS, which has a snow event.
GFS AI is also fairly close to a snow event.
The Dailies
Monday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms. Windy. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms in the predawn hours, then clearing. Breezy. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain early 70%.
Wednesday: Sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain showers 10%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain and/or snow. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%
Sunday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms. Windy. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms in the predawn hours, then clearing. Breezy. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain early 70%.
Wednesday: Sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain showers 10%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain and/or snow. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%
Sunday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
