Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
This will be a short discussion because I don't have a ton of time and this isn't worth much proverbial ink. We have a weak system that will traverse the region tomorrow and it will give us our chance at a white Christmas. The timing makes it a little more tricky than it would otherwise be, and last minute trends haven't been great if you like winter weather.
This will be a short discussion because I don't have a ton of time and this isn't worth much proverbial ink. We have a weak system that will traverse the region tomorrow and it will give us our chance at a white Christmas. The timing makes it a little more tricky than it would otherwise be, and last minute trends haven't been great if you like winter weather.
Above: The SCW final call snow map. While most of the state can still expect 1-3", there's just too much risk at the coast for warmth the warrant a higher floor and ceiling. I almost put the whole state in the 1-3" zone, but I just couldn't do it.
Overall Setup
The setup is pretty straightforward and has been for days. A weak clipper in the very fast flow regime we've had much of the month will dive down from Canada tomorrow. With cold air in place we will see overrunning over that cold, which will produce snow. For coastal and southern CT however, the gradual southerly flow will erode the cold that is in place, and should force the precipitation to change to rain eventually. This is a fast moving system, so by the evening we should be cleared out.
Overall Setup
The setup is pretty straightforward and has been for days. A weak clipper in the very fast flow regime we've had much of the month will dive down from Canada tomorrow. With cold air in place we will see overrunning over that cold, which will produce snow. For coastal and southern CT however, the gradual southerly flow will erode the cold that is in place, and should force the precipitation to change to rain eventually. This is a fast moving system, so by the evening we should be cleared out.
Above: A 12z Euro model depiction of tomorrow's clipper. The other guidance generally have the same evolution, with differences in how much precipitation falls. Overall however, a general 1-3" of snow inland with up to an inch at the coast seems most likely.
Timing
This is a quick moving storm, like our other winter weather events this season. There is a bit of a split on the guidance on start time, but I think we see snow develop between 4-8am from west to east. The snow may very well quickly go to moderate in spots, and it'll be later in the morning/afternoon when precipitation becomes lighter that we see warmth really erode the snow in southern CT, maybe up into the CT River Valley. The storm is out of here by 8pm.
Snow & Ice Accumulation
For inland areas, a general 1-3" has seemed like a high confidence forecast for a few days now. For the coastal region however, it gets more tricky. You could make a plausible argument that with the initial burst of snow that some coastal areas actually do better than the current ceiling of one inch in our forecast. However, the combination of a little more warmth showing up on the guidance, and some guidance cutting back on the amount of precipitation makes that argument more tenuous. If I were at the coast, I would expect an inch at most and be pleasantly surprised or disgusted if your town surpassed an inch. Inland, the CT River Valley is at the greatest risk of ending up on the lower end, but I think most finish with 2-3 inches of new snow. Enough for a white Christmas. This looks like more of the pasty wet snow, especially in lower elevation places.
Wind & Power Outages
Not a factor here. Weak system.
Overall Impact
Everyone's asking if this is enough to shut down schools. Normally, I would say no, but the timing of the onset of snow, and candidly--the fact that it's right before the holiday--probably increases the odds that there are widespread cancellations. Overall however this is a minor impact system in the whole scheme of things, with more moderate impact on the roads, especially in interior CT.
Looking Ahead
In the wake of this clipper, Christmas Eve and Christmas look quiet and seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 30s, maybe 40 in a few of our warmest spots--this is a far cry from much of the country which may be in record warm territory for Christmas.
We have trended colder as we stay on the colder side of the boundary between warmth and cold. This is critical for our next storm in the fast flow, which may very well be significant. If you are planning to travel on Friday, be prepared for a possible winter storm.
Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Timing
This is a quick moving storm, like our other winter weather events this season. There is a bit of a split on the guidance on start time, but I think we see snow develop between 4-8am from west to east. The snow may very well quickly go to moderate in spots, and it'll be later in the morning/afternoon when precipitation becomes lighter that we see warmth really erode the snow in southern CT, maybe up into the CT River Valley. The storm is out of here by 8pm.
Snow & Ice Accumulation
For inland areas, a general 1-3" has seemed like a high confidence forecast for a few days now. For the coastal region however, it gets more tricky. You could make a plausible argument that with the initial burst of snow that some coastal areas actually do better than the current ceiling of one inch in our forecast. However, the combination of a little more warmth showing up on the guidance, and some guidance cutting back on the amount of precipitation makes that argument more tenuous. If I were at the coast, I would expect an inch at most and be pleasantly surprised or disgusted if your town surpassed an inch. Inland, the CT River Valley is at the greatest risk of ending up on the lower end, but I think most finish with 2-3 inches of new snow. Enough for a white Christmas. This looks like more of the pasty wet snow, especially in lower elevation places.
Wind & Power Outages
Not a factor here. Weak system.
Overall Impact
Everyone's asking if this is enough to shut down schools. Normally, I would say no, but the timing of the onset of snow, and candidly--the fact that it's right before the holiday--probably increases the odds that there are widespread cancellations. Overall however this is a minor impact system in the whole scheme of things, with more moderate impact on the roads, especially in interior CT.
Looking Ahead
In the wake of this clipper, Christmas Eve and Christmas look quiet and seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 30s, maybe 40 in a few of our warmest spots--this is a far cry from much of the country which may be in record warm territory for Christmas.
We have trended colder as we stay on the colder side of the boundary between warmth and cold. This is critical for our next storm in the fast flow, which may very well be significant. If you are planning to travel on Friday, be prepared for a possible winter storm.
Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
