Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.
What a weekend it has been! We traded in our daily rain and thunderstorms for a quiet holiday weekend. Yesterday was gorgeous and today has been quite nice, despite the additional heat and humidity typical of an early July day.
The week ahead will feature a typical summer-like pattern, with heat visiting the region and daily thunderstorm chances. However, this week we are also watching an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico that may bring us some wind and rain by the end of the week.
What a weekend it has been! We traded in our daily rain and thunderstorms for a quiet holiday weekend. Yesterday was gorgeous and today has been quite nice, despite the additional heat and humidity typical of an early July day.
The week ahead will feature a typical summer-like pattern, with heat visiting the region and daily thunderstorm chances. However, this week we are also watching an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico that may bring us some wind and rain by the end of the week.
Above, an GOES-E image of the day so far in New England. About as nice as you can get...minus the heat.
Monday
Most days of the week will be similar. Partly sunny conditions and warmth, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow starts the trend. Tomorrow looks warm and sunny, with highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s along much of the shoreline, but there thunderstorms may pop up during the afternoon. Like most typical summertime thunderstorms, we do not expect severe weather, but flash flooding by slow moving pop-ups is possible. Below is a high resolution NAM depiction of tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not everyone swill see rain.
Monday
Most days of the week will be similar. Partly sunny conditions and warmth, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow starts the trend. Tomorrow looks warm and sunny, with highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s along much of the shoreline, but there thunderstorms may pop up during the afternoon. Like most typical summertime thunderstorms, we do not expect severe weather, but flash flooding by slow moving pop-ups is possible. Below is a high resolution NAM depiction of tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not everyone swill see rain.
Tuesday-Thursday
Like I said, most days of the week will be similar. Tuesday looks to be one of the "cooler" days of the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, but the theme will be the same with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. Wednesday and Thursday bring back the heat and humidity, with highs in the 90s inland and very humid conditions. This may continue into Friday, depending on the eventual track of Invest 98L.
Like I said, most days of the week will be similar. Tuesday looks to be one of the "cooler" days of the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, but the theme will be the same with showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. Wednesday and Thursday bring back the heat and humidity, with highs in the 90s inland and very humid conditions. This may continue into Friday, depending on the eventual track of Invest 98L.
Above: the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) tropical outlook. Invest 98L is expected to cross into the Atlantic next week and currently has a 40% chance into developing into a tropical system.
Friday-Sunday
This period may feature our first "close call" with something of tropical origins this season. The NHC has designated an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico as an "Invest". That merely means that it is an area they are paying closer attention to, not that there is a guaranteed threat.
I have been watching this for a few days, and on the computer guidance, both operational and ensemble, there is now virtually unanimous agreement that this area of disturbed weather will develop into a weak area of low pressure and head northeastward. Emphasis on weak.
This is a bit more tricky than it looks, however. In most instances, something that develops off the Carolina coast is quickly shunted out to sea, bringing little to no impacts here. But because of the possible steering pattern, the guidance has been trying to keep the little low closer to the coast or inland altogether. If it develops into a low pressure over land, it will be nontropical. If it develops over water, it may acquire tropical characteristics but that is unlikely to change the wind and rain potential.
It is still possible there is a "kicker", a front or trough that will push whatever 98L develops into out to sea before getting too far north, but odds right now favor a closer approach.
That means some wind and rain and thunderstorms are possible as early as Friday, but more likely on Saturday. Below are the operational GFS, operational European model, and European Ensembles, in that order. The first two will merely show the pressure anomaly. The main things to notice are the following:
1) The low pressure remains weak.
2) The track is close enough to bring some rain, which may be heavy at times.
Friday-Sunday
This period may feature our first "close call" with something of tropical origins this season. The NHC has designated an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico as an "Invest". That merely means that it is an area they are paying closer attention to, not that there is a guaranteed threat.
I have been watching this for a few days, and on the computer guidance, both operational and ensemble, there is now virtually unanimous agreement that this area of disturbed weather will develop into a weak area of low pressure and head northeastward. Emphasis on weak.
This is a bit more tricky than it looks, however. In most instances, something that develops off the Carolina coast is quickly shunted out to sea, bringing little to no impacts here. But because of the possible steering pattern, the guidance has been trying to keep the little low closer to the coast or inland altogether. If it develops into a low pressure over land, it will be nontropical. If it develops over water, it may acquire tropical characteristics but that is unlikely to change the wind and rain potential.
It is still possible there is a "kicker", a front or trough that will push whatever 98L develops into out to sea before getting too far north, but odds right now favor a closer approach.
That means some wind and rain and thunderstorms are possible as early as Friday, but more likely on Saturday. Below are the operational GFS, operational European model, and European Ensembles, in that order. The first two will merely show the pressure anomaly. The main things to notice are the following:
1) The low pressure remains weak.
2) The track is close enough to bring some rain, which may be heavy at times.
The GFS above is broad and weak, with the center so close to the coast and so late to develop it likely stays a nontropical or subtropical coastal low.
The European op run here has some differences. The first you'll notice is that it develops a low off the Carolina coast. That means it is more likely to be tropical given the warm waters down there, but even here, the low is weak. That said, just like the GFS it is very close to the coast, likely bringing rain and some wind but nothing particularly strong. Note that the Euro is slower than the GFS, which means Friday would continue our hot and humid stretch.
Finally, we have the European Ensembles above. Remember, ensemble forecasts are particularly useful because they take initial conditions and tweak them to run separate simulations on what may happen.
Here you see a pretty strong consensus that a low develops of the coast of the Carolinas but instead of going out to sea, they head north-northeastward and toward a closer approach. Again, these lows look pretty weak, so that suggests the ceiling may be fairly low for a stronger low, but we will have a better sense of that if/when a tangible low develops in the middle of the week. Once more, rain and some wind look to be the biggest impacts, if this forecast holds. There is still a camp of ensemble members that keep this out to sea.
As you can see, there is still some uncertainty over 98L that we will need to monitor, at this point however, it is something to just keep an eye out for. No need to hype or panic. At all.
We are likely clearing by Sunday.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and hot, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and seasonably warm, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, hot and humid, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, hot and humid, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Hot and humid, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain, thunderstorms, and breezy conditions. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
-DB
Here you see a pretty strong consensus that a low develops of the coast of the Carolinas but instead of going out to sea, they head north-northeastward and toward a closer approach. Again, these lows look pretty weak, so that suggests the ceiling may be fairly low for a stronger low, but we will have a better sense of that if/when a tangible low develops in the middle of the week. Once more, rain and some wind look to be the biggest impacts, if this forecast holds. There is still a camp of ensemble members that keep this out to sea.
As you can see, there is still some uncertainty over 98L that we will need to monitor, at this point however, it is something to just keep an eye out for. No need to hype or panic. At all.
We are likely clearing by Sunday.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and hot, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and seasonably warm, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, hot and humid, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, hot and humid, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Hot and humid, with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain, thunderstorms, and breezy conditions. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
-DB
