Good evening from SCW.
This is just a brief post on the weekend ahead, since we've had a lot of questions and comments on it. The last weekend of October is going to be stormy, with a coastal storm taking shape off the southeast coast as I type. Rain has begun to overspread the Mid-Atlantic and will be approaching during the overnight hours.
This is just a brief post on the weekend ahead, since we've had a lot of questions and comments on it. The last weekend of October is going to be stormy, with a coastal storm taking shape off the southeast coast as I type. Rain has begun to overspread the Mid-Atlantic and will be approaching during the overnight hours.
Above is a surface map analyzing surface pressure in the southeast. You can see two lobes of energy, but it's the energy off the SC and GA coast that will be the dominant feature through the weekend.
Current Watches/Warnings
There are a number of NWS headlines up for CT.
Wind
A Wind Advisory is up for coastal Connecticut and northern Litchfield County. While we do not expect widespread power outages due to wind, we expect maximum wind gusts of 20-40mph inland and maybe some isolated gusts to 50mph in coastal CT, especially SE CT. We've seen worse, but for those areas at the shore prone to power outages during any type of storm this could be one of those times you see your power flicker.
Rain
A Flash Flood Watch is up for the southern four Connecticut counties. Statewide, I think 1-2" of rain over the weekend is a reasonable expectation, with some isolated spots going a bit higher depending on where the heaviest rain echoes set up.
Coastal Flooding
A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for coastal New Haven and Fairfield counties. Tides are expected to run 2.5 to 3.5 feet above astronomical tides Saturday afternoon, bringing moderate to localized major coastal flooding. Some additional minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide Saturday night and Sunday morning. For the eastern CT shoreline, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for 2 to 2.5 feet of water rise.
There are a number of NWS headlines up for CT.
Wind
A Wind Advisory is up for coastal Connecticut and northern Litchfield County. While we do not expect widespread power outages due to wind, we expect maximum wind gusts of 20-40mph inland and maybe some isolated gusts to 50mph in coastal CT, especially SE CT. We've seen worse, but for those areas at the shore prone to power outages during any type of storm this could be one of those times you see your power flicker.
Rain
A Flash Flood Watch is up for the southern four Connecticut counties. Statewide, I think 1-2" of rain over the weekend is a reasonable expectation, with some isolated spots going a bit higher depending on where the heaviest rain echoes set up.
Coastal Flooding
A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for coastal New Haven and Fairfield counties. Tides are expected to run 2.5 to 3.5 feet above astronomical tides Saturday afternoon, bringing moderate to localized major coastal flooding. Some additional minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide Saturday night and Sunday morning. For the eastern CT shoreline, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for 2 to 2.5 feet of water rise.
Timing
Rain will begin in earnest in southern Connecticut during the early morning hours. By sunrise, rain should have overspread the state. It will be a washout, with the heavier rain tapering off by Saturday evening. Rain showers are possible on Sunday, but it does not look like a particularly wet day.
Wintry Precipitation Potential
As we have said through the week, the story of this storm is the rain and wind. However, as SA mentioned in his forecast, we are watching the potential for a brief wintry mix in the hills of northern CT, particularly NW CT, tomorrow morning. Any accumulation, if any, would be light and get washed away quickly by the cold rain over the course of the day. Regardless, it will be a cold and raw day with highs in the 40s and feeling colder with the wind.
Rain will begin in earnest in southern Connecticut during the early morning hours. By sunrise, rain should have overspread the state. It will be a washout, with the heavier rain tapering off by Saturday evening. Rain showers are possible on Sunday, but it does not look like a particularly wet day.
Wintry Precipitation Potential
As we have said through the week, the story of this storm is the rain and wind. However, as SA mentioned in his forecast, we are watching the potential for a brief wintry mix in the hills of northern CT, particularly NW CT, tomorrow morning. Any accumulation, if any, would be light and get washed away quickly by the cold rain over the course of the day. Regardless, it will be a cold and raw day with highs in the 40s and feeling colder with the wind.
Overall, we have to deal with a cold and wet weekend as the result of a coastal storm. The storm is potent, but not as strong as what some of the guidance signaled more than a week ago. Hopefully Sunday is salvageable!
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
