Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
What a difference a few days make! This weekend was cool and much less humid, and I daresay it felt a bit like fall!
All eyes are on Hurricane Florence, but as the title suggests, we have a wet and warmer week ahead. Let's dive in.
Monday
Tomorrow looks wet. It should be the last day of this cool streak, as we're socked in with clouds and rain showers, some of which could be moderate to heavy. It will be breezy and cool, with highs in the 60s for just about everyone. It's an umbrella day for sure.
What a difference a few days make! This weekend was cool and much less humid, and I daresay it felt a bit like fall!
All eyes are on Hurricane Florence, but as the title suggests, we have a wet and warmer week ahead. Let's dive in.
Monday
Tomorrow looks wet. It should be the last day of this cool streak, as we're socked in with clouds and rain showers, some of which could be moderate to heavy. It will be breezy and cool, with highs in the 60s for just about everyone. It's an umbrella day for sure.
As the Hi-res NAM illustrates, tomorrow looks wet. There may even be some embedded thunderstorms as well.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks a drier than Monday, but it is a lot warmer and humid as well. A warm front will pass through the state and as a result things look much warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be the continued chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but otherwise things look quiet and cloudy. The NAM run above shows that as well and the one below shows the temperature contrast from Monday to Tuesday.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks a drier than Monday, but it is a lot warmer and humid as well. A warm front will pass through the state and as a result things look much warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be the continued chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but otherwise things look quiet and cloudy. The NAM run above shows that as well and the one below shows the temperature contrast from Monday to Tuesday.
Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week looks quieter but remains warm. There's not much to say other than there will be continued shower chances but they will be lower than the start of the week.
Friday
High pressure looks to build in, and we should see sun again. I'm expecting another warm day but with the most sun all week.
Saturday/Sunday and Florence
Here's where it makes sense to have a discussion on Hurricane Florence. Florence is currently churning in the central Atlantic, and is gradually intensifying. Winds are currently 85mph, but are expected to go much higher over the next few days. In fact, there is a rare model consensus that Florence will undergo rapid intensification in the next 24 hours, and will be a major hurricane tomorrow.
The middle of the week looks quieter but remains warm. There's not much to say other than there will be continued shower chances but they will be lower than the start of the week.
Friday
High pressure looks to build in, and we should see sun again. I'm expecting another warm day but with the most sun all week.
Saturday/Sunday and Florence
Here's where it makes sense to have a discussion on Hurricane Florence. Florence is currently churning in the central Atlantic, and is gradually intensifying. Winds are currently 85mph, but are expected to go much higher over the next few days. In fact, there is a rare model consensus that Florence will undergo rapid intensification in the next 24 hours, and will be a major hurricane tomorrow.
GOES-16 IR satellite imagery. The darker colors indicate colder cloud tops, meaning strong thunderstorms. It's a way that we can identify strengthening and organization of tropical systems.
The forecast for Florence is actually pretty straight forward. Over New England and the Ohio Valley, we will see very unusual ridging in the mid levels develop. While that brings us heat, it creates an environment that will steer Florence closer to the coast. Where exactly, remains unclear, but the guidance has been consistent that this is more of a southeast or Mid-Atlantic (think Virginia) threat rather than a New England one.
Usually, for a New England landfall threat, a storm approaches from the south as a trough steers the system north, often rapidly. There's no trough here, and the only way that we'd see a direct impact from Florence would be if the ridging were significantly over modeled or ended up in a different location. This closely in time, that's highly unlikely.
The forecast for Florence is actually pretty straight forward. Over New England and the Ohio Valley, we will see very unusual ridging in the mid levels develop. While that brings us heat, it creates an environment that will steer Florence closer to the coast. Where exactly, remains unclear, but the guidance has been consistent that this is more of a southeast or Mid-Atlantic (think Virginia) threat rather than a New England one.
Usually, for a New England landfall threat, a storm approaches from the south as a trough steers the system north, often rapidly. There's no trough here, and the only way that we'd see a direct impact from Florence would be if the ridging were significantly over modeled or ended up in a different location. This closely in time, that's highly unlikely.
Above is the 500mb height simulation from the European Model, our best guidance overall. It speaks for itself. We see a building ridge over the northern tier of the US and into the Atlantic that blocks Florence into North Carolina. Now, that could change, but it's unlikely.
That said, there has been some guidance that has shown that after a North Carolina impact we see the ridge break down quickly and remnants of Florence are guided to the region during the weekend and early next week. There is very little support for this, further increasing confidence that Connecticut does not see anything close to a Hurricane Florence landfall.
That said, there has been some guidance that has shown that after a North Carolina impact we see the ridge break down quickly and remnants of Florence are guided to the region during the weekend and early next week. There is very little support for this, further increasing confidence that Connecticut does not see anything close to a Hurricane Florence landfall.
Even without a direct impact, folks at the beach should be careful for rip currents and high waves. People die every year because a storm is hundreds of miles away and they don't pay attention to waves and rip currents.
Don't let your guard down. Make sure you are reviewing your hurricane preparedness plan and paying close attention. We'll have more during the week on Florence.
The Dailies
Monday: Rainy and cool. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Don't let your guard down. Make sure you are reviewing your hurricane preparedness plan and paying close attention. We'll have more during the week on Florence.
The Dailies
Monday: Rainy and cool. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
