The wet, unsettled pattern will finally start to abate later Friday, just in time for the weekend. Until then, we'll see more periodic showers and thunderstorms with lots of clouds.
Currently: WPC sfc analysis places a stationary front along I 195 in NJ, then WNW to the I 80 corridor in OH and IN. This frontal zone has been the source of action, as far as showers and thunderstorms go, for the last few days, and it will continue to be, until the more "traditional" cold front currently near Kansas City passes through some time on Friday.
Tonight: Lots of clouds and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. As you get closer to the front, the best chance of showers and storms is the further south you travel. Most of the action should be centered on mid-evening or so, between 8 PM and midnight. Models are in pretty good agreement regarding temperatures, and mid 60s seems to be a pretty good call, using a model consensus.
Tomorrow: A pre-frontal trough approaches later in the day. This will become the focal point for showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast. As far as any severe weather threats go, I think the main threats will remain west of the state, across NJ, NY, and PA. There are two good reasons for this: First, the pre-frontal trough will not approach our area until nighttime, which is not usually the best time of day to get severe weather. Secondly, the state will probably never make it into the warm sector, which is usually necessary to get severe thunderstorms. This all having been said, widely scattered thunderstorms are still possible at any time tomorrow, especially later in the day, although the best chance will probably wait until very late at night, or even early Friday morning. Temperatures will be quite tricky, because they could become highly variable, depending on how much sun we get, and if we get any rain during the day. For the purposes of this forecast, we'll assume both sun and rain are minimal, but that there could be a break or two of sun. So I'll go with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: After any showers associated with the main cold front clear Friday morning, we'll finally see some nice weather on Friday. A sunny, and breezy day, with highs generally 70 to 75, with a few upper 70s across the CT valley and urban centers. Generally for temperatures, I split the guidance right down the middle.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): A trend toward summer-type weather is in store, right in time for the summer solstice. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms in the long term appears to be later Monday into Monday night. Temperature guidance looks pretty reasonable through the long term, so there wasn't really much reason to differ. The only real change I made was to lower Tuesday's high temperatures a couple of degrees from guidance, as upper level temperatures do not quite support the robust readings the MEX guidance was printing out. Anyway, that yields high temperatures as follows:
Saturday: around or just above 80
Sunday: low 80s
Monday: 80 to 85, maybe upper 80s in the I 91 corridor?
Tuesday: upper 80s, cooler along the South coast
Wednesday: mid to upper 80s
Longer Range: The overall stormy pattern could take a bit of a break for much of the rest of the month of June. However, with a very warm air mass in place, it is not possible to completely rule out showers and thunderstorms, especially as any troughs or ripples in the flow approach. However, there are increasing signs that the wet pattern returns in earnest during the first week of July.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect our area during this forecast period. First, we'll take a look at tomorrow evening's frontal passage. As you can see on this map, most of the action is well to the northwest of the area. However, there is still enough moisture being signaled on the models to not go with a dry forecast.
Currently: WPC sfc analysis places a stationary front along I 195 in NJ, then WNW to the I 80 corridor in OH and IN. This frontal zone has been the source of action, as far as showers and thunderstorms go, for the last few days, and it will continue to be, until the more "traditional" cold front currently near Kansas City passes through some time on Friday.
Tonight: Lots of clouds and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. As you get closer to the front, the best chance of showers and storms is the further south you travel. Most of the action should be centered on mid-evening or so, between 8 PM and midnight. Models are in pretty good agreement regarding temperatures, and mid 60s seems to be a pretty good call, using a model consensus.
Tomorrow: A pre-frontal trough approaches later in the day. This will become the focal point for showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast. As far as any severe weather threats go, I think the main threats will remain west of the state, across NJ, NY, and PA. There are two good reasons for this: First, the pre-frontal trough will not approach our area until nighttime, which is not usually the best time of day to get severe weather. Secondly, the state will probably never make it into the warm sector, which is usually necessary to get severe thunderstorms. This all having been said, widely scattered thunderstorms are still possible at any time tomorrow, especially later in the day, although the best chance will probably wait until very late at night, or even early Friday morning. Temperatures will be quite tricky, because they could become highly variable, depending on how much sun we get, and if we get any rain during the day. For the purposes of this forecast, we'll assume both sun and rain are minimal, but that there could be a break or two of sun. So I'll go with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: After any showers associated with the main cold front clear Friday morning, we'll finally see some nice weather on Friday. A sunny, and breezy day, with highs generally 70 to 75, with a few upper 70s across the CT valley and urban centers. Generally for temperatures, I split the guidance right down the middle.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): A trend toward summer-type weather is in store, right in time for the summer solstice. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms in the long term appears to be later Monday into Monday night. Temperature guidance looks pretty reasonable through the long term, so there wasn't really much reason to differ. The only real change I made was to lower Tuesday's high temperatures a couple of degrees from guidance, as upper level temperatures do not quite support the robust readings the MEX guidance was printing out. Anyway, that yields high temperatures as follows:
Saturday: around or just above 80
Sunday: low 80s
Monday: 80 to 85, maybe upper 80s in the I 91 corridor?
Tuesday: upper 80s, cooler along the South coast
Wednesday: mid to upper 80s
Longer Range: The overall stormy pattern could take a bit of a break for much of the rest of the month of June. However, with a very warm air mass in place, it is not possible to completely rule out showers and thunderstorms, especially as any troughs or ripples in the flow approach. However, there are increasing signs that the wet pattern returns in earnest during the first week of July.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect our area during this forecast period. First, we'll take a look at tomorrow evening's frontal passage. As you can see on this map, most of the action is well to the northwest of the area. However, there is still enough moisture being signaled on the models to not go with a dry forecast.
Next, let's take a look at the system slated to affect the region later Monday. On this map, we can once again see that the highest moisture concentration is not over the area. However, there is still enough moisture over our area to warrant mentioning precipitation in the forecast. Secondly, there is more back over Ohio, which is something to keep an eye on.
Anyway, that's all for now. I'll see you again next week!
-GP!
-GP!
