Yes, we just had a winter storm across most of the state of Connecticut and the overall weather pattern for the next week or so resembles a late February pattern more than an April pattern!
Tonight: Temperatures will plunge under clear skies, diminishing winds, and in many areas, snowpack. Dew points are very low, so areas that radiate well will be able to drop very quickly. Overall, low temperatures should range from the low 20s along the south coast to 10-15 in the interior. It wouldn't surprise me if some colder spots actually hit the single digits!
Tomorrow: Sunshine and warmer than today, as high pressure moves offshore and some warm air advection commences. High temperatures generally in the 40-45 degree range. High clouds may increase late in the day ahead of the next system, but should not have much affect on the weather.
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: A storm system tracking to our west will bring a brief warmup (to normal) and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will not fall much tomorrow night, or may fall early, then rise toward morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 50s, with the warmest readings actually in the interior. A southerly flow off the cool Long Island Sound will keep the south coast cooler. It won't rain for a very long time, but when it does rain, it could be heavy at times. In general, the timing of the event has sped up recently in the latest model runs. Right now, I'm thinking rain overspreads the state between mid morning and lunchtime from SW to NE, and ends between mid afternoon and rush hour from SW to NE. While it's not totally out of the question to hear a few rumbles of thunder, especially away from the coast, I'll leave it out of the forecast for now, due to the very low probability.
Longer Term: Colder air rushes back in on Friday. A few snow showers or squalls are possible late Thursday night into the first part of Friday. After a chilly start in the mid 30s to near 40, high temperatures should still reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, a secondary cold front will bring increasing amounts of cold air later Friday.
The big issue over the weekend will be the potential development of a coastal low. There is an excessive amount of energy and baroclinicity (in English, a temperature difference), that it is very likely a coastal low of some sort will form. However, the exact axis of the trough and positioning of the Atlantic Ridge will determine exactly where that coastal low forms. Right now, and it is way too early to pin down any exact details, it would appear that Eastern Connecticut, especially Northeastern Connecticut, would be more favored. Interestingly enough, thermal profiles are significantly colder than they were for the last storm, so precipitation type (which would be snow) shouldn't be an issue. Stay tuned!
Beyond whatever transpires out of the potential coastal storm, expect conditions getting closer to what one would expect in April in Connecticut! After all, this is Connecticut, not Central Canada!
Here are a few maps, to put this forecast into graphical perspective.
First, here is a look at predicted rainfall totals for Thursday.
Tonight: Temperatures will plunge under clear skies, diminishing winds, and in many areas, snowpack. Dew points are very low, so areas that radiate well will be able to drop very quickly. Overall, low temperatures should range from the low 20s along the south coast to 10-15 in the interior. It wouldn't surprise me if some colder spots actually hit the single digits!
Tomorrow: Sunshine and warmer than today, as high pressure moves offshore and some warm air advection commences. High temperatures generally in the 40-45 degree range. High clouds may increase late in the day ahead of the next system, but should not have much affect on the weather.
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: A storm system tracking to our west will bring a brief warmup (to normal) and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will not fall much tomorrow night, or may fall early, then rise toward morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 50s, with the warmest readings actually in the interior. A southerly flow off the cool Long Island Sound will keep the south coast cooler. It won't rain for a very long time, but when it does rain, it could be heavy at times. In general, the timing of the event has sped up recently in the latest model runs. Right now, I'm thinking rain overspreads the state between mid morning and lunchtime from SW to NE, and ends between mid afternoon and rush hour from SW to NE. While it's not totally out of the question to hear a few rumbles of thunder, especially away from the coast, I'll leave it out of the forecast for now, due to the very low probability.
Longer Term: Colder air rushes back in on Friday. A few snow showers or squalls are possible late Thursday night into the first part of Friday. After a chilly start in the mid 30s to near 40, high temperatures should still reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, a secondary cold front will bring increasing amounts of cold air later Friday.
The big issue over the weekend will be the potential development of a coastal low. There is an excessive amount of energy and baroclinicity (in English, a temperature difference), that it is very likely a coastal low of some sort will form. However, the exact axis of the trough and positioning of the Atlantic Ridge will determine exactly where that coastal low forms. Right now, and it is way too early to pin down any exact details, it would appear that Eastern Connecticut, especially Northeastern Connecticut, would be more favored. Interestingly enough, thermal profiles are significantly colder than they were for the last storm, so precipitation type (which would be snow) shouldn't be an issue. Stay tuned!
Beyond whatever transpires out of the potential coastal storm, expect conditions getting closer to what one would expect in April in Connecticut! After all, this is Connecticut, not Central Canada!
Here are a few maps, to put this forecast into graphical perspective.
First, here is a look at predicted rainfall totals for Thursday.
As you can see, we're looking at a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain, possibly approaching one inch across far Southeast Connecticut. Next, here is a look at the potential coastal low for the weekend, with a map valid Saturday night.
On this map, the low is pretty far offshore. However, other runs and other models have had this low closer, and even on this look, Eastern Connecticut is favored. This run is south of what I ultimately think will play out, but we have a long way to go, and many different solutions are still plausible.
Anyway, that's all for now... enjoy winter's parting shot!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now... enjoy winter's parting shot!
-GP!
