Disc: Our little shot of winter is pulling away and the bulk of the fcst period will feature wx more typical of this time of yr.
Currently: Cold high pressure still anchored over the area. Strong warm front extends from the Quad Cities area to about Myrtle Beach. That will move rapidly north and cross the area by morning.
Tonight: I went a few deg above guidance on temps, as it appears to be too diurnal. Feeling is that temps will be steady or slowly rise thru the night, prob above 40 everywhere by dawn, except far N and a few sheltered valleys. Warm front moves thru around dawn SW-NE. There could be a quick sprinkle or rain shower right along the warm front, otherwise the night is generally cloudy, but dry.
Tomorrow: The big question is how warm it gets. The two things I definitely know are: The air mass is very warm, and we'll have strong southerly flow. That tells me two things: We'll have potential to get very warm, but it should be much cooler along the S coast. What I don't know is how much clear skies we'll have, which would aid in warming. I do know that most showers w/the cold front hold off until after max heating, so that isn't much of a concern. Weighing all these things together, I went quite a bit under guidance in the event of being conservative, esp given such strong Southerly flow, and have highs generally in the upper 50s. Winds just aloft are quite impressive. I would not be surprised to see 55-60 MPH gusts, esp along the S coast.
I am adding a special section for tomorrow night, because that's where most of the action w/our cold front will be. SPC does not have the state highlighted, but when I see 850-925 winds the way they are progged on today's modeling, I do think any heavier showers or t-storms can mix down svr winds to the sfc. You do not necessarily have to have lightning to get svr showers. Any showers end by dawn as a fairly strong cold front moves thru.
Long Term: The main concerns in the long term are showers on Sun and a bigger storm at the end of the pd.
For Friday, expect pleasant temps w/clearing skies. I went fairly close to guidance- mid to upper 50s most places, approaching 60 along the I 91 corridor. The only fly in the ointment will be the winds. Gusts to 45 MPH will still be possible, esp in the morning.
For Sat, expect an even nicer day. It will still be breezy, but winds will diminish significantly. Again close to guidance on temps- 50-55... could be a bit warmer or cooler in spots, but no need to play around too much w/a generally nice day expected.
An upper level low will spin over the area on Sun. This should flare up showers after morning sun. W/very cold air aloft, any heavier showers will produce small hail and/or sleet (maybe even snow N of the Merritt). Temps would also plummet w/any heavier showers. I went way below guidance on temps w/this feature present, and have highs in the upper 40s.
That upper level low will clear out of here by Mon and the week will start off nice. Went very close to guidance temps and smoothed them out across the state, since we're in the long term, generally mid 50s.
For Tuesday, another nice day is expected. Clouds will increase ahead of the next sys, but no pcpn is expected until well after dark. Again went pretty close to guidance temps, generally mid to upper 50s, but I could see the I 91 corridor approach 60, esp if we get any sun.
For Wednesday, we very well may be dealing with part I of a two-part sys that affects the state Wed and Thu w/heavy rains. Models have progged a lot of heavy QPF events at this range and many of them have not verified, so I'd use a bit of caution w/this, but the setup, as advertised, would produce.
For today's graphics, I'll post one of tomorrow night's rains and then one of Sun's showers. The Wed event we'll leave alone for now, as it is too far away. On the first map, you can see widespread showers over the state, w/more coming. The tight isobars indicate strong winds. The second image shows showers across the state, w/what appears to be a perfect orientation for CT to get the rain. However, being a small system and still a bit of a ways out, I limited it to high chance POPs for now, since this can (and probably will) move.
Currently: Cold high pressure still anchored over the area. Strong warm front extends from the Quad Cities area to about Myrtle Beach. That will move rapidly north and cross the area by morning.
Tonight: I went a few deg above guidance on temps, as it appears to be too diurnal. Feeling is that temps will be steady or slowly rise thru the night, prob above 40 everywhere by dawn, except far N and a few sheltered valleys. Warm front moves thru around dawn SW-NE. There could be a quick sprinkle or rain shower right along the warm front, otherwise the night is generally cloudy, but dry.
Tomorrow: The big question is how warm it gets. The two things I definitely know are: The air mass is very warm, and we'll have strong southerly flow. That tells me two things: We'll have potential to get very warm, but it should be much cooler along the S coast. What I don't know is how much clear skies we'll have, which would aid in warming. I do know that most showers w/the cold front hold off until after max heating, so that isn't much of a concern. Weighing all these things together, I went quite a bit under guidance in the event of being conservative, esp given such strong Southerly flow, and have highs generally in the upper 50s. Winds just aloft are quite impressive. I would not be surprised to see 55-60 MPH gusts, esp along the S coast.
I am adding a special section for tomorrow night, because that's where most of the action w/our cold front will be. SPC does not have the state highlighted, but when I see 850-925 winds the way they are progged on today's modeling, I do think any heavier showers or t-storms can mix down svr winds to the sfc. You do not necessarily have to have lightning to get svr showers. Any showers end by dawn as a fairly strong cold front moves thru.
Long Term: The main concerns in the long term are showers on Sun and a bigger storm at the end of the pd.
For Friday, expect pleasant temps w/clearing skies. I went fairly close to guidance- mid to upper 50s most places, approaching 60 along the I 91 corridor. The only fly in the ointment will be the winds. Gusts to 45 MPH will still be possible, esp in the morning.
For Sat, expect an even nicer day. It will still be breezy, but winds will diminish significantly. Again close to guidance on temps- 50-55... could be a bit warmer or cooler in spots, but no need to play around too much w/a generally nice day expected.
An upper level low will spin over the area on Sun. This should flare up showers after morning sun. W/very cold air aloft, any heavier showers will produce small hail and/or sleet (maybe even snow N of the Merritt). Temps would also plummet w/any heavier showers. I went way below guidance on temps w/this feature present, and have highs in the upper 40s.
That upper level low will clear out of here by Mon and the week will start off nice. Went very close to guidance temps and smoothed them out across the state, since we're in the long term, generally mid 50s.
For Tuesday, another nice day is expected. Clouds will increase ahead of the next sys, but no pcpn is expected until well after dark. Again went pretty close to guidance temps, generally mid to upper 50s, but I could see the I 91 corridor approach 60, esp if we get any sun.
For Wednesday, we very well may be dealing with part I of a two-part sys that affects the state Wed and Thu w/heavy rains. Models have progged a lot of heavy QPF events at this range and many of them have not verified, so I'd use a bit of caution w/this, but the setup, as advertised, would produce.
For today's graphics, I'll post one of tomorrow night's rains and then one of Sun's showers. The Wed event we'll leave alone for now, as it is too far away. On the first map, you can see widespread showers over the state, w/more coming. The tight isobars indicate strong winds. The second image shows showers across the state, w/what appears to be a perfect orientation for CT to get the rain. However, being a small system and still a bit of a ways out, I limited it to high chance POPs for now, since this can (and probably will) move.
That's all for now, see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
