Winter storm warnings up as confidence increases in major snowstorm impacting Connecticut...

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather
 
As you start the day, we want to make sure that you have the very latest about a powerful winter storm that is set to impact the area tomorrow. Winter storm warnings are up across Connecticut for the first time this season, in anticipation of what should be the largest and most widespread snow event yet. 

To be clear, this is not the biggest snowstorm Connecticut has ever faced. We’re not expecting this to be a storm for the ages or meet blizzard criteria. However, this is a significant system, and has the potential to be very disruptive across Connecticut all day tomorrow. You should take it seriously--especially on the roads. Here’s what we know:
 

• Confidence continues to increase in a major winter storm impacting Connecticut Thursday.
• Snow currently looks to begin between 3-7am and will quickly become moderate to heavy across the state. The morning commute will definitely be impacted by this event.
• Although there may be a brief period of mixing or rain at the shore (especially in SE CT) the majority of the event will be snow as temperatures stay below freezing during the day.
• There will be breezy conditions, especially at the shoreline, making travel even more difficult.
• We expect widespread cancellations across Connecticut tomorrow. 
• The snow looks to begin tapering by the evening hours, but I still expect slick conditions to persist into the nighttime hours. 

What to watch
Today is all about tracking the development of the low pressure system, how fast it deepens, and what the track is. The guidance overnight continues to show a major event for the state, but some of the recent guidance has shifted the heaviest of the snow southeast. That is something we will be watching closely, and we will refine our map if necessary to better target which locations will see the most snow. 

Here is the latest guidance. 

4km NAM

Early morning 4km NAM. Probably the least reliable of the models but it is coming into a range where you add more weight to its forecast. Notice the dark blue banding becoming evident over Connecticut tomorrow morning and afternoon. Where banding sets up is key to understanding where the maximum snow zones will be. 

RGEM

The RGEM has been one of the more bullish models, but this run is a shift southeast with the positioning of the low. Even then, it shows very heavy snow across Connecticut, especially along coastal locations. 

The Globals

Finally, we have the global models. The GFS is on the left and Canadian is on the right. Both show a low rapidly deepening to our south, but what is the final track? The positioning and strength of the low is going to be key in what our final snow totals are. 

Overall, these are posted to show you the variation that makes the difference in a forecast. No one model is to be taken 100% verbatim. For this forecast, we're blending all of them and weighing the European (not shown), GFS, and RGEM more than the others. 

We will continue to have updates as conditions warrant. As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts! All you have to do is click one of the buttons below!
 
Thanks for reading SCW.​
 
-DB

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