There are two events in this forecast period- the first is Wednesday and the other one is at the end of the forecast period, with a potentially very active and colder than normal pattern setting up in the long range.
First thing's first, for tonight, any showers will be clearing the area, as a weak cold front moves through the area. A brief push of cooler and drier air associated with this front will spread over the region However, it should be emphasized that this front is weak, and the air behind it is not very cold. Skies should clear tonight and temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s.
Tomorrow: Despite being on the cold side of the front, temperatures will still rise into the 40s under sunny skies. A pleasant February Day, and Punxsatawney Phil will probably see his shadow. Long range modeling is also "seeing its shadow", so to speak, but more on that later.
Tomorrow Night and Wednesday: A large and fairly powerful "Great Lakes Cutter" type low pressure system will track over Michigan and into Canada. This will spread a swath of rain, possibly heavy at times, into the state. Rain will probably fall from mid morning to mid evening on Wednesday- about a 12 hour event (Lakes Cutters tend to be fast movers). Lakes Cutters also tend to produce lots of warm air. Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 50s! Taking a step back a minute, temperatures Tuesday night will be a bit tricky, depending on arrival of cloudiness. The best guess right now is that lows will range from the upper 20s to the upper 30s across the state, but there is a possibility that some places in NECT may get into the low 20s for a brief time before clouds increase, since they'll be the last to cloud over. Rainfall amounts on Wednesday should range between one and two inches pretty much statewide. Wednesday's temperatures may turn out warmer away from the coast, as a southerly wind flow ahead of the storm blows cool air off the Long Island Sound into the coastal locations. There is also a small chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday, but due to a lot of uncertainty, will leave it out of the forecast. Since the storm is tracking well to the west, wind should not be too much of a concern, but it will be breezy, and an isolated gust to 30-35 MPH is not out of the question. Flooding should not be a major concern, since most of Connecticut is no longer snowcovered, however, urban and poor drainage problem is a possibility, due to cold antecedent ground conditions.
Longer Term: On Thursday, skies clear behind the departing rainstorm. Cooler air will filter in. However, the true cooler air will wait until later Thursday night when the secondary cold front moves through. Therefore, highs should still be in the upper 40s. There could be some breezy conditions, and an isolated wind gust or two to 30-35 MPH in the morning, behind the departing storm.
On Friday, much colder air will move in, and temperatures will be about ten degrees colder than those of Thursday. There will be a storm system moving along the old frontal boundary offshore. All guidance, except for a few ensemble members, keep all precipitation with this feature offshore. However, there is a tendency for coastal lows to trend westward at the last minute. While highly unlikely, residents should still watch for a glancing blow with the coastal low, especially along the Southeast coast.
Saturday and Superbowl Sunday should both feature generally fair weather, with slightly above normal temperatures and a bit of a breeze. There is the chance of a brief flurry both days in the Northwest hills from weak systems passing by to the north.
Things could get more interesting on Monday, as one storm system tracks up into the Ohio Valley and another low develops along the coast. Sunday's system will bring the temperatures down 5-7 degrees from the previous day. While there are a lot of uncertainties with this system, including track and exact timing, this could be the next potential snowmaker to track for most, if not all, of the state.
Looking further out, the pattern seems to get very active with normal to below normal temperatures. Needless to say, without getting into minute details that will change many times between now and then, there appear to be several opportunities for snow in the long range. Stay tuned!
Here are a few maps, detailing some of the potential threats in the next seven days or so:
First, let's look at the storm system coming on Wednesday:
First thing's first, for tonight, any showers will be clearing the area, as a weak cold front moves through the area. A brief push of cooler and drier air associated with this front will spread over the region However, it should be emphasized that this front is weak, and the air behind it is not very cold. Skies should clear tonight and temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s.
Tomorrow: Despite being on the cold side of the front, temperatures will still rise into the 40s under sunny skies. A pleasant February Day, and Punxsatawney Phil will probably see his shadow. Long range modeling is also "seeing its shadow", so to speak, but more on that later.
Tomorrow Night and Wednesday: A large and fairly powerful "Great Lakes Cutter" type low pressure system will track over Michigan and into Canada. This will spread a swath of rain, possibly heavy at times, into the state. Rain will probably fall from mid morning to mid evening on Wednesday- about a 12 hour event (Lakes Cutters tend to be fast movers). Lakes Cutters also tend to produce lots of warm air. Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 50s! Taking a step back a minute, temperatures Tuesday night will be a bit tricky, depending on arrival of cloudiness. The best guess right now is that lows will range from the upper 20s to the upper 30s across the state, but there is a possibility that some places in NECT may get into the low 20s for a brief time before clouds increase, since they'll be the last to cloud over. Rainfall amounts on Wednesday should range between one and two inches pretty much statewide. Wednesday's temperatures may turn out warmer away from the coast, as a southerly wind flow ahead of the storm blows cool air off the Long Island Sound into the coastal locations. There is also a small chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday, but due to a lot of uncertainty, will leave it out of the forecast. Since the storm is tracking well to the west, wind should not be too much of a concern, but it will be breezy, and an isolated gust to 30-35 MPH is not out of the question. Flooding should not be a major concern, since most of Connecticut is no longer snowcovered, however, urban and poor drainage problem is a possibility, due to cold antecedent ground conditions.
Longer Term: On Thursday, skies clear behind the departing rainstorm. Cooler air will filter in. However, the true cooler air will wait until later Thursday night when the secondary cold front moves through. Therefore, highs should still be in the upper 40s. There could be some breezy conditions, and an isolated wind gust or two to 30-35 MPH in the morning, behind the departing storm.
On Friday, much colder air will move in, and temperatures will be about ten degrees colder than those of Thursday. There will be a storm system moving along the old frontal boundary offshore. All guidance, except for a few ensemble members, keep all precipitation with this feature offshore. However, there is a tendency for coastal lows to trend westward at the last minute. While highly unlikely, residents should still watch for a glancing blow with the coastal low, especially along the Southeast coast.
Saturday and Superbowl Sunday should both feature generally fair weather, with slightly above normal temperatures and a bit of a breeze. There is the chance of a brief flurry both days in the Northwest hills from weak systems passing by to the north.
Things could get more interesting on Monday, as one storm system tracks up into the Ohio Valley and another low develops along the coast. Sunday's system will bring the temperatures down 5-7 degrees from the previous day. While there are a lot of uncertainties with this system, including track and exact timing, this could be the next potential snowmaker to track for most, if not all, of the state.
Looking further out, the pattern seems to get very active with normal to below normal temperatures. Needless to say, without getting into minute details that will change many times between now and then, there appear to be several opportunities for snow in the long range. Stay tuned!
Here are a few maps, detailing some of the potential threats in the next seven days or so:
First, let's look at the storm system coming on Wednesday:
You can see the slug of heavy rain guided from southwest to northeast, straight at Connecticut!
Here is a map from Friday. You can see the system along the cold front remains too far offshore to bring measurable snow to Connecticut.
Finally, here is the next potential snowstorm for Connecticut. Of course, it is a long way out, but that is probably the next credible threat.
-GP!
-GP!
