Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It was a cold December, with the state well below normal in temperatures. January started off cold as well with the first five days of 2026 all finishing well below normal. However, that kind of pattern wasn't going to last for months on end. That kind of consistency doesn't really happen in this region.
A relaxation in the pattern has led to our "thaw". While we've had some weather systems bring a little snow and ice, overall temperatures have been above to well above normal. With the lack of coastal winter storms, snow totals have been holding in place. For interior CT, we're below normal in seasonal snowfall. Along the coast, where you were off to a blazing start in the snow department, you are still above normal.
There is increasing confidence that the "thaw" will end this week as a big pattern change begins to take hold. With it comes our first meaningful chance of measurable snow since the very start of the month.
It was a cold December, with the state well below normal in temperatures. January started off cold as well with the first five days of 2026 all finishing well below normal. However, that kind of pattern wasn't going to last for months on end. That kind of consistency doesn't really happen in this region.
A relaxation in the pattern has led to our "thaw". While we've had some weather systems bring a little snow and ice, overall temperatures have been above to well above normal. With the lack of coastal winter storms, snow totals have been holding in place. For interior CT, we're below normal in seasonal snowfall. Along the coast, where you were off to a blazing start in the snow department, you are still above normal.
There is increasing confidence that the "thaw" will end this week as a big pattern change begins to take hold. With it comes our first meaningful chance of measurable snow since the very start of the month.
Overall Pattern
Above is an EPS depiction of 500mb heights between Tuesday and Sunday. Note how we go from ridging in the east, which has been our latest pattern feature that cuts off our cold supply, to a big reversal. By late in the week we see big troughing developing in the east and importantly, a big ridge over the western U.S. and Alaska. In the Pacific, this teleconnection state favors a return to cold temperatures, along with our first real chance of coastal nor'easter development this winter. That is what will bring us our first snow potential in the new regime.
In the longer term, this allows Canada to start to build cold again, which likely gets funneled into New England on a consistent basis. We're entering the coldest period of the year climatologically so it does not take big negative departures for it to get cold here.
The bottom line is that the thaw should not have fooled anyone: winter is far from over.
Above is an EPS depiction of 500mb heights between Tuesday and Sunday. Note how we go from ridging in the east, which has been our latest pattern feature that cuts off our cold supply, to a big reversal. By late in the week we see big troughing developing in the east and importantly, a big ridge over the western U.S. and Alaska. In the Pacific, this teleconnection state favors a return to cold temperatures, along with our first real chance of coastal nor'easter development this winter. That is what will bring us our first snow potential in the new regime.
In the longer term, this allows Canada to start to build cold again, which likely gets funneled into New England on a consistent basis. We're entering the coldest period of the year climatologically so it does not take big negative departures for it to get cold here.
The bottom line is that the thaw should not have fooled anyone: winter is far from over.
Above: the 12z EPS depiction of temperatures averaged in five day intervals. This is a very cold look overall.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is quiet, and although today's front will bring temperatures down into the 30s for most tomorrow, the general trend of above average temperatures will continue with temperatures right back in the 40s by Tuesday. Fortunately, for those disappointed in the lack of sunshine, Monday and Tuesday should bring only partly cloudy skies at best. Tuesday will bring increasing clouds ahead of our next system.
Wednesday-Thursday
We almost immediately go to a complex evolution of the forecast when we get to the middle of the week, and it centers around a developing system nearby and a frontal boundary.
Wednesday will have a chance of showers on another warm day. A boundary will begin moving southward from Canada and the warm air in advance may bring some showers. This will likely be an extremely slow moving boundary. That said, Wednesday is likely an umbrella day.
Thursday brings another chance of showers as a lead shortwave tries to develop well offshore. This is very important so make a note. This should finally pull the frontal boundary southeast, which sets the stage for a potential snow event Friday.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is quiet, and although today's front will bring temperatures down into the 30s for most tomorrow, the general trend of above average temperatures will continue with temperatures right back in the 40s by Tuesday. Fortunately, for those disappointed in the lack of sunshine, Monday and Tuesday should bring only partly cloudy skies at best. Tuesday will bring increasing clouds ahead of our next system.
Wednesday-Thursday
We almost immediately go to a complex evolution of the forecast when we get to the middle of the week, and it centers around a developing system nearby and a frontal boundary.
Wednesday will have a chance of showers on another warm day. A boundary will begin moving southward from Canada and the warm air in advance may bring some showers. This will likely be an extremely slow moving boundary. That said, Wednesday is likely an umbrella day.
Thursday brings another chance of showers as a lead shortwave tries to develop well offshore. This is very important so make a note. This should finally pull the frontal boundary southeast, which sets the stage for a potential snow event Friday.
Above: 18z European model depiction of Wednesday and Thursday. You can see the boundary slow to reach us, then a low well offshore that helps drag the cold into the region by early Friday morning.
Friday-Sunday
Friday is a period of interest. Remember that lead wave? Well, as it pulls away and drags cold into the region, a big trough tries to amplify at the same time. This causes all kinds of chaos at 500mb, where the action really happens.
On the Euro, this brings the energy associated with the trough well to the north. That's the first image below. In the second image, the GFS for the same time, the energy is further south. The spacing between the lead wave and this follow up Friday system is absolutely critical.
Friday-Sunday
Friday is a period of interest. Remember that lead wave? Well, as it pulls away and drags cold into the region, a big trough tries to amplify at the same time. This causes all kinds of chaos at 500mb, where the action really happens.
On the Euro, this brings the energy associated with the trough well to the north. That's the first image below. In the second image, the GFS for the same time, the energy is further south. The spacing between the lead wave and this follow up Friday system is absolutely critical.
How so? It looks subtle with the images above, but with just a small amount of space between the two pieces of energy the second (Friday system) is unable to amplify under us and bring a classic coastal. With more space, there's a higher potential for snow.
So what will happen? It's too soon to say. We've seen plenty of strong coastal storm setups get obliterated by this kind of fast flow/wave spacing issues through the 2020s. On the other hand, this looks very potent, and the trend gradually has been toward more spacing and some type of coastal winter storm Friday. For now, we'll put in modest snow chances, but this is one to stay tuned on.
No, this doesn't look like a massive storm like some of the folks on social media have been hyping, but we have a long way to go to know what the final outcome will be.
Either way, the cold is entrenched by the weekend as this system clears.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly cloudy and colder with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
What's with the wind?
Finally, folks have been asking about the wind. I finally have at least a bit of an answer. With a stormy fall with low grade pressure gradients and so many Arctic blasts in December it's not surprising that it's been windy. Cold air advection is a common way for us to get windy.
Looking at the data, 2025 was a windy year. How windy depends on perspective. Looking at Bridgeport, 2025 was the most windy when looking at average wind speed since the 2000s! That's pretty windy, but far from what we saw a few decades ago. The 1960s-1980s were very windy. 2025 is the year in green.
No, this doesn't look like a massive storm like some of the folks on social media have been hyping, but we have a long way to go to know what the final outcome will be.
Either way, the cold is entrenched by the weekend as this system clears.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly cloudy and colder with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
What's with the wind?
Finally, folks have been asking about the wind. I finally have at least a bit of an answer. With a stormy fall with low grade pressure gradients and so many Arctic blasts in December it's not surprising that it's been windy. Cold air advection is a common way for us to get windy.
Looking at the data, 2025 was a windy year. How windy depends on perspective. Looking at Bridgeport, 2025 was the most windy when looking at average wind speed since the 2000s! That's pretty windy, but far from what we saw a few decades ago. The 1960s-1980s were very windy. 2025 is the year in green.
But when you look at wind gusts, 2025 was historically windy, which actually continued what started in 2024, which was #1 until 2025 came along. Very interesting. Looking deeper from September-December (not pictured) it seems like our active fall and cold December put us over the top. That's somewhat speculative however.
At Hartford (BDL), we see something similar. In terms of average wind speed, it was the windiest since the 2000s, but far from the windiest overall.
When it came to wind gusts however, not only was 2025 the windiest, the trend has been toward higher gusts conditions over time.
As you can see from the images above, the trend has been toward lower average wind speeds overall, but higher wind gusts. That suggests that we have less windy days, but more high end windy days, which would have higher gusts. In the absence of tropical activity, that probably means our springs, but especially falls and winters, have been active. Given the trends in the data, I don't think that's changing anytime soon.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
-DB
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
-DB
