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Wintry Week Ahead Beginning with Late Sunday/Monday Winter Weather Event...

2/17/2019

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

It has been a rare sight to see an all snow winter weather event this season, and this just may be the closest we get to that since November. 

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire state as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. It will will redevelop to our south tomorrow. With cold air in place, we are expecting a light to moderate snow event. Because of banding and the potential of mixing in parts of southern Connecticut, we are making some adjustments to our snow map. 
After an initial map that showed 2-5 inches of snow statewide, it's time to be a bit more precise. I am taking the numbers up for central and northern Connecticut slightly, and adjusting the snow forecast for the shoreline, where some mixing is possible. Because of some microphysics in the atmosphere, there may be some freezing drizzle further inland tomorrow as well. However, I do not think that will significantly impact snow totals, and I think the lowest totals will be confined to areas right near the shore. 

Snow will break out over the state in the next 3-4 hours. It will become moderate to heavy at times. The majority of snow falls overnight, and we likely see periods of light snow through tomorrow with some possible mixing in southern areas. Things clear by tomorrow night. 
Picture
Pictured above: 3km NAM showing a period of snow early on followed by lighter snow during much of Monday. 
​
Impacts

Overall this looks to be a low to moderate impact event. 
  • Snow Accumulation: Low to Moderate
  • Snowfall Rates: Moderate (overnight especially) 
  • Wind: Low
  • Power Outages: Low
  • Timing: Low (given the holiday and that most is likely to fall overnight, the timing actually looks good here) 
  • Road Conditions: Moderate

I don't expect delays on Tuesday, as thing should have cleared by then. 
Tuesday-Thursday
Tuesday looks like a great day, with chilly conditions as we watch the next weather maker approach from the south. Wednesday starts off fine, but we will see increasing clouds as we return to the mixed bag storms we've grown accustomed to seeing this season. Things will start off as snow, and change to mixed precipitation and then rain as we head into Thursday. It's still too early to hone in on the details for this one but stay tuned as there could be significant delays late Wednesday into early Thursday. â€‹
Picture
Friday-Sunday
Not much needs to be said about this period yet. As the storm clears on Thursday, Friday and early Saturday look fine. There is some signal however that we may see another mixed bag system Saturday into Sunday. 

The Dailies
Monday: Snow. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 100%. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cool. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with snow and mixed precipitation late. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%. 

Thursday: Mixed precipitation and rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 80%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Saturday: Increasing clouds with snow and mixed precipitation late. Chance of precipitation 30%. 

Sunday: Mixed precipitation and rain. Chance of precipitation 30%. 

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Thank you for reading and trusting SCW. 

-DB​
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