After a mostly warm October, the last week of the month is looking sharply cooler and more active. The overall theme of the week will be wet and chilly, but could we be seeing some snowflakes by the end of the week? Let's dive in.
As I mentioned above, the week ahead looks active. It's not necessarily a week-long washout, but we will have multiple impulses move toward the region. The first comes late tonight and through Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves offshore. This will bring mostly cloudy conditions (which will dominate the week) and some showers/drizzle over the course of the day. It will be a cool day, just like today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Showers will be off and on.
As the first little low departs, there could be some residual cloudiness and showers on Tuesday as a front moves through the region. I'm not expecting much of anything that will significantly impact the day, however. Temperatures will be similar to Monday.
High pressure should build on Wednesday, and this looks as a transition day before what looks like an increasingly interesting period. Currently, Tropical Storm Zeta is churning in the Caribbean Sea, it is expected to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the Gulf Coast. The steering pattern is likely to bring the remnants of the storm to our region.
I'm not ready to declare this a SCW Period of Interest, but this period is looking a little more interesting. As you can see from the 500mb image above, Zeta makes landfall along the coast and quickly gets caught up in the steering flow. That will bring the remnants of the system close. There are two interesting things about this. First, the guidance has trended toward the remnants being a little stronger than usual, possibly due to focusing of moisture along a front. That means that we are increasingly likely to see breezy conditions and periods of rain that may be heavy at times. Now, this far out, it is important to remember that the track of Zeta could change and bring a reduced impact here. But for now, I think a period of heavy rain is possible on Thursday.
Now for the second interesting thing about this setup. Look at the upper level low behind Zeta. This is the storm that may bring snow and ice to Texas in a few days. Obviously for that to happen it is working with a good push of cold air. Let's look a little closer to the surface on the European model.
What would that mean?
It'd almost certainly mean another period of cold rain on Friday, in fact, it could be the coldest day of the season so far. Given the cold air in the region it could also mean there are snowflakes in the air, especially in northern and NW CT. In fact, some of the guidance is trying to produce a bona fide snow event in northern New England and far Upstate NY.
I don't currently think a snow event is likely here, but this is something to watch. It should make for an interesting week of tracking. For now, I am just putting rain in the forecast for Friday, but that could change as we get closer to the end of the week.
Regardless of what happens, the weekend is looking cooler and drier, with high pressure settling back in. Maybe we even see some sun to close out the month! The early trick or treating forecast is good: chilly but dry for the kids that head out.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and drizzle. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and colder with rain and breezy conditions. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and colder with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low 50s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
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