Currently: Sprawling high pressure from NC to PA up into QC. A dying cold front was located over the Hudson Valley. Other than a few clouds, this cold frontal passage will be unremarkable.
Tonight: Clouds increase, so low temps probably occur in the 1st part of the night. Therefore, I went a few degrees above guidance. Expect lows ranging from the mid 30s in the NW hills to 40-45 S coast and urban areas.
Tomorrow: Generally mostly cloudy, but we'll stay dry. Clouds should negate warm air advection, as far as temps go, so no real reason to change guidance too much. Expect high temps of 50-55 degrees.
Thanksgiving: Looks like a rainy Thanksgiving day is in store for the area. It should be raining by dawn across the entire state. There should be something of a dry slot progressing SW To NE across the state, from early aftn SW CT to mid aftn NE CT, then a line of showers and possibly even t-storms later in the afternoon into the evening from SW To NE. Due to clouds and rain, I went a few deg below guidance. So xpct highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Long Term: Most of the action in the long term will be centered around a storm moving up, inland, from the E coast on Mon.
First, for Friday, although a cold front is going thru T-day evening, there isn't much cold air behind it, due to the air mass being of Pac origin. Therefore, Friday will not be cold at all. Due to the fact that I can't see any reason to improve on guidance, I went with it. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s.
For Saturday, a weak impulse moves through during the day and could touch off a weak sprinkle or light rain shower. Due to the fact that this is Day 4, and I don't like to put pcpn in the fcst if widespread measurable is not xpctd beyond Day 3, I have left Sat dry. However, there is the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers at just about any time during the day. Again, I don't really see any reason to tweak guidance, so expect highs close to guidance- in the 50-55 deg range.
Sunday should be fair, although clouds should increase later in the day, ahead of the next sys. Highs should be near 50 degrees, which again is relatively close to guidance output.
Now for Monday, a large storm system will impact the area. Consensus track has it going west of us- probably something like up the Delaware then Hudson River valleys. Given the expected storm track, all pcpn at this point should be liquid, at least in front of the storm. There is some question as to how long the storm will be or how strong, and this depends on phasing, with the Canadian model continuously being the most aggressive with phasing. For now, for lack of trying to be too cute, and the fact that it does look like an all-day event, will just go generic "rain" for Monday. Depending on the exact track, the chance of thunderstorms is non-zero. However, I don't want to put t-storms in a day 6 forecast at the end of Nov. Out of an abundance of caution, I stayed close to temp guidance, which is 50-55 degrees, but I could see it ending up a few deg warmer.
This is also uncertain, because it is related directly to the track of the low and what exactly it does when it leaves the area, but there could be instability showers Tue morn, and as colder air filters in, those could turn over to sleet or snow, but I am not expecting any accumulations or anything like that. Either way, Tue should turn much colder. Due to strong CAA that numerical guidance almost never recognizes this far out, I went well below temp guidance on Tue, and will only call for highs in the low 40s.
The long range looks cold and looks like it could be quite the wintry pattern setting up for the area. Details on individual storm tracks and impacts for the region obviously remain up in the air, but the pattern does look to be setting up into a wintry one!
Now let's take a look at some of the systems set to affect the area over the next week. First, let's take a look at the Thanksgiving storm, then we'll look at Monday's storm. Looking at this map, expect a rainy Thanksgiving. You can see rain over the area, and much lighter shades, our break, over PA. What is out near Cleveland and likely to swing thru later is our t-storms.