It was a nice and seasonably chilly weekend in Connecticut. Conditions were dry, but the week ahead is looking quite active. While we don't see any major events on the table at this time, we are still tracking our first possible widespread measurable snowfall. There are a lot of questions that still need to be sorted out. Let's dive in.
Tomorrow looks rainy and warmer than normal, but doesn't look as bad as it did a few days ago. A warm front will bring the chance of rain showers early, followed by an advancing strong cold front that will bring more rain showers during the evening and overnight period.
Highs tomorrow should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and is an umbrella day. It will be breezy as well as the front passes, but we don't anticipate any damaging wind gusts. In Litchfield County, we could see a brief changeover to snow showers after the passage of the front overnight Monday/early Tuesday, but I don't see any accumulation likely. Be careful for some slick spots early Tuesday morning in the wake of the front as temperatures drop.
Tuesday may start off with some early showers, but the day looks fine overall. It'll be breezy and colder with the strong front having passed the region.
It's not quite a SCW Period of Interest, which is usually issued if there's a significant weather event on the horizon, but that could change depending on the trends in the next 24-36 hours.
We've been watching a potential storm for a few days now, and the trend the last two days has been that the system develops weaker and less impactful because it develops well offshore. That said, even in a progressive flow with no blocking we often see these modeled systems trend north as they become a little more amplified toward the end of a forecast period. That's never a guarantee, but it informs this forecast a little.
For now, we think that light snow breaks out across the state on Wednesday morning and continues through the afternoon. Although we're not currently expecting anything heavy, with the first widespread snowfall of the season could cause some minor delays. Should the system trend north/stronger, more delays would be likely. There may be some mixing at the coast at the start, but given the offshore projections right now, this looks like a majority to all snow event.
Accumulations look minor, perhaps barely warranting a winter weather advisory for a coasting to 2 inches of snow. Again, there is still substantial uncertainty with this system. Don't lock in any solution yet, but be aware of the potential for snow Wednesday.
In the wake of the storm, whatever its track, we see cold and dry conditions filter in as a transient high pressure takes over. We're right back to the unsettled weather Friday, as another system likely approaches. It looks weak, but with cold air in place we may see another minor period of snowfall before transitioning to rain. Not much to say right now about it, as we still need to sort out Wednesday.
It looks like rinse and repeat, with more slightly warmer and dry conditions on Saturday before another system approaches on Sunday. How Saturday trends might impact Sunday, so for now, we'll just introduce a chance of rain Sunday.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Slight chance of snow showers late in Litchfield Hills. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 80%. Chance of snow showers (in hills) 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with light snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%.
Thursday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mixed precipitation early followed by rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of mixed precipitation 40%. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
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