Before we can get to the weekend, we have to get through tomorrow first, which will be the most volatile day of the forecast period as an unseasonably strong shortwave enters from the lakes. Increasing instability throughout the day should lead to coverage of showers and thunderstorms breaking out in the afternoon hours from west to east, and then sliding across the state and gradually weakening throughout the evening. Some storms could become severe, with small hail and strong winds being the most likely impacts. Best chance of severe storms will be in the western portion of the state, where the SPC has posted a Marginal risk for severe storms.
Here's a simulated radar progression for tomorrow afternoon and evening, with images at 2 PM, 5 PM, 8 PM and 2 AM. While the placement of the storms cannot be exact, it gives a general idea of the timing of the line.
Looking ahead into next week, the Euro keeps high pressure over us and builds above normal temperatures into the area by mid-week next week, while the GFS brings in another round of low pressure and brings some rain to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Will include a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast to account for this possibility, but as of right now am leaning towards a dry forecast.
Here are the dailies:
Friday: A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The SCW Team wishes you a wonderful weekend and a happy Independence Day! As always, thanks for reading. -SA