Currently: A warm front extended from Delaware Bay to NW PA. Low pressure was also over NW PA. Although this front should not bring severe wx to CT, a rogue strong storm is possible in the far SW and heavy rain is possible everywhere.
Tonight: Any rain ends around midnight. Went a few deg under guidance for temps, as strong CAA commences after midnight. Lows generally in the mid 60s, give or take a few degrees.
Tomorrow: A beautiful sunny day with low dew points. Guidance looks very good, and went very close, with a few minor adjustments. Highs generally near 80.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: continued beautiful and pleasantly cool for the time of yr. Guidance looks perfect and is accepted. Highs only in the mid to upper 70s. It is not inconceivable that some of the NW hills could start the day Sat in the 40s!
Long Term: Not a super active period. The main features in the long term are a frontal passage Sunday, waves along the frontal system early in the week, and then more front(s) later in the week. There do not look to be any very large pcpn events during this period, but maybe just after this period.
For Sunday, models have trended drier. However, I'm not sure how much I buy it. Models tend to flip flop at that range. For now, I'll go w/chance pops for rain and possibly an imbedded t-storm, but no severe wx. I do not think the entire day is dry, as a few ENS members suggest. Guidance looks pretty good, regarding temps, so near 80 for statewide highs looks good.
For Monday, drier air advects in again, w/low dew points. Another spectacular day for the time of yr. Guidance looks good and is clustered together, so will accept. Highs again near 80 statewide.
For Tuesday, some ENS members want to ride a wave up the front and bring it close enough to affect our area. Right now, models are showing very low amounts of low level moisture. Therefore, for now, I'll keep all the rain out of the fcst and just go w/an increase in high clouds. Of course, later shifts can refine this, if necessary. I will go lower than guidance for Tue's temps, since I do think we will be mostly cloudy and NBM temps are not reflective of that. Highs generally only in the mid 70s, except a few upper 70s in the I 91 corridor.
For Wednesday, sunny with low humidity once again. Guidance looks fine, so temps accepted w/just a few minor adjustments here and there. Highs around 80 pretty much statewide.
Finally for Thu, once again yet another frontal wave may develop along the old offshore front. This front could be close enough to allow moisture to ooze into the area, and we could be on the fringes of it. It won't last long, because a new cold front will approach from the west. But I think it's worthy of a slight chance of light rain in the fcst for now.
Looking a bit further out, it does look like a traditional cold front approaches from the west next Fri, bringing showers and storms with it. It appears that next week could be a return to more humid and frequently stormy wx, as the Bermuda Ridge heads west a bit, and places the region back in the ring of fire.
No graphics today, for what is a fairly quiet week, compared to recent weeks.
See ya next week!