Disc: We will be warm to hot for about another week, then finally it looks like the pattern will snap with more appropriate weather for October moving in.
Currently: A cold front was located from Western PA into adjacent New York state. This cold front has triggered some showers out ahead of it. As these showers encounter warmer and more humid air, some thunderstorms may develop. A few thunderstorms may even be strong, especially across the eastern and southern portions of the state, where higher moisture content resides.
Tonight: As mentioned, the first order of business will be tracking some showers and thunderstorms as they track across the state. We're not really looking for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. However, there could be a few strong thunderstorms embedded within the line. Now for later in the night, I do think the showers and storms will leave the state early enough to allow for some clearing skies later. Model statistical guidance has run too warm at night about 9 out of the last 10 nights. So I'll shave a degree or two off guidance across the board. Expect lows ranging from the mid 40s in the NW hills to the mid 50s along the south coast.
Tomorrow: Model guidance is in reasonable agreement. With near full sun, I'll go with the warmer GFS guidance. High temperatures should be within a few degrees of 75, cooler north, and warmer south.
Tomorrow night/Sat: High pressure moves offshore, so expect the humidity to gradually increase. Another cold front approaches later Saturday and could trigger more showers and thunderstorms. This time expect most of the precipitation to wait until nighttime. Although with a warm and humid air mass in place and a front approaching, there is at least a slight chance that a storm gets in during the daylight hours, especially western sections. Once again, will run with the warmer GFS guidance set. With the higher humidity and more of a southerly flow, temperatures across the state should be more uniform, generally ranging in the mid to upper 70s.
Long Term (getting into next week): Not much in the way of precipitation is expected for the bulk of the long term, until probably later Wednesday into most of the day on Thursday. That is when the wheels get set in motion for a large-scale pattern alteration that will bring autumn to the northeastern United States.
From Sunday to Wednesday, no major changes were made to the existing temperature guidance. I only made minor tweaks here and there to account for local climate variables. So, high temperatures from Sunday through Wednesday look like this:
Sunday: Mid 705
Monday: near 70, except warmer in the I 91 corridor.
Tuesday: Near 80, except cooler in the NW hills.
Wednesday: low 80s, except cooler in the NW hills.
Then on Thursday, cold air rushes into the region. Models tend to underdo air mass changes (of any kind) at a D+7 lead time, so I went 3-5 degrees cooler than guidance all areas as a good start. High temperatures on Thursday should only be within a few degrees of 60, from north to south.
Ahead of this strong cold front, showers and thunderstorms will be possible, if not probable, beginning later Wednesday. As the front clears the area, it could take on more of an "anafront" type characteristic, which means showers (but not thunderstorms, as the air mass will be more stable) should linger behind the front for most of the day on Thursday.
Looking into the long range, the pattern definitely looks like more of an autumnal pattern vs the extended summer pattern we've been having, Look for pleasantly cool days and cool to chilly nights.
Now, let's look at some of the weather systems slated to affect the area in the coming week. This time, I'll show you just high temperature maps for Wednesday and Thursday, so you can get an idea of the change that is coming! Here's Wednesday. Notice how 80s cover just about the entire state, as I outlooked, with the only exception possibly being the NW hills.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you again next week!