Dry. It has been very dry across Connecticut in recent months. After the driest summer on record for some locations and a stable pattern that has favored rain to the west of the state when the opportunities have occurred, we are finally moving into a break. The week ahead looks wet!
There will be some showers around tomorrow, but overall tomorrow is not looking like a washout or likely to produce much in the way of rain. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s again and a fair amount of humidity. This time of year, humidity is relative though, so it'll feel sticky but not awful.
This is our prime period for rainfall potential. Right now, it looks like the periods of rain will put a significant dent in our drought. While Tuesday doesn't look too wet, we should see more widespread showers. Wednesday and at least early Thursday look very wet.
A big trough is going to move toward the East Coast and it will orient itself in a way that will allow for great moisture transport. In addition, we are likely to see some (non-tropical) coastal development that will enhance the rain potential. One thing that I am watching closely is a second possible low to develop and move offshore on Wednesday/Thursday. Depending on the track and strength of this possible low, we could see some gusty winds, especially at the shoreline. This will be something to watch and refine in future forecasts.
Below are the overall rain forecasts through early Friday. The first image is the GFS and the second is the European model. I lean toward blending the guidance right now, with a general 1-3 inches of rain for the state. I think the highest amounts are going to be more isolated, but a strong storm will increase maximum rainfall potential.
Friday may bring us some more rain showers if another weak low develops along the trough and moves through the region, but that is in doubt at this point.
Currently, the weekend is looking fine, but we will be watching an area of low pressure in the Caribbean. There are some indications that a low could form and given the troughing in our region we'll just need to watch to see if some more moisture can be thrown our way next week. Long way out and nothing to seriously watch at the moment, but remember that our active hurricane season is not over.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain and breezy conditions, especially early. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
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