It certainly feels like Oct today across the area, a few days early.  However, unsettled and warmer wx is on the horizon.

Currently: High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast is in control.  Low pressure over Nova Scotia is keeping the winds up a bit today, and adding even a touch more chill to the air.

Tonight: Tonight will easily be the coldest night of the early fall season so far.  The combo of fresh cool air and good radiative conditions will allow temps to fall quickly.  I have gone a couple deg under guidance w/lows generally in the 40s.  I would not be surprised to see a few 30s show up in the normally colder spots.  

Tomorrow: Guidance temps look good and generally accepted w/a few minor tweaks, such as raising a deg or two in the I 91 corridor, due to downsloping.  A beautiful day w/highs in the upper 60s and plenty of sun.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sunny and turning warmer by Sat.  Temp guidance looks absolutely mint and will not touch it.  Highs 70-75 throughout the state, maybe a 76 or 77 shows up along I 91.

Long Term: This is where the wx starts to get more complicated to fcst.  Hey, it was bound to happen some time!

Sun: Models have trended slower with overrunning pcpn, not reaching NYC area until mid evening, so we should stay high and dry Sun.  I could be too low on temps, but I don't want to go too high yet.  Clouds may increase earlier, the flow could turn onshore- too many things can happen to put a damper on temps, that I didn't want to go too warm yet.  So I have low 70s in the fcst, although that may need to be adjusted upward.

Mon: GFS has come in pretty light w/QPF w/our overrunning sys.  However, the NBM is showing decent probs and QPF.  I won't go all in, but I will go w/60ish POPs for this time period.  I am not going to try to time it too much, but it could be more early, then late again, w/a gap in between.  For now, due to clouds and rain, went way under temp guidance, and I have mostly upper 60s for highs.  However, any breaks of sun could raise those temps.

Tue: No real trigger for precip, but w/a frontal boundary nearby, hard not to keep slight POPs in the fcst.  Generally OVC or mostly cloudy, not expecting much sun.  Guidance temps look fairly reasonable, just made a few adjustments for continuity, so I have upper 60s again for most highs.

Wed: Continued generally mostly OVC skies.  Deep layer onshore flow, so temps not going far.  This onshore flow should at least temporarily keep us stable, so removed any precip from fcst here.  Guidance temps look good, so I have mid to upper 60s throughout the state.

Thu: Could see a few breaks of sun.  However, deep layer onshore flow still keeps temps from going very far.  Looks like upper 60s S coast to near 70 everywhere else for temps.  Guidance temps look fine and are accepted as is.

Beyond here is where a long-duration powerful system is possible, although details are very hard to follow at this point.  There is decent agreement, given the lead time, that some type of system may try to form near the coast and trudge slowly up the coast.  It could contain deep tropical moisture and may even be tropical or subtropical in origin.  Stay tuned!

Only one graphic today, since the other system is so far away.  This map is valid Mon eve.  I feel this is a good map to share, as you can see precip, moving SW To NE, split into two pieces.  Other models do have heavier and more solid precip, so we'll see.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Fall officially began last week, and this week will bring fall-like conditions to the state! Overall, we are expecting a few shower chances, but the week should feature generally nice and dry conditions. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks clear and nice, albeit seasonably warm. This should be the warmest day of the period, but nothing too bad with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Enjoy it if you like warm temps! 

Tuesday
The second day of the work week is looking like our most unsettled day of the forecast period. A strong cold front will pass through the region and bring a chance of showers throughout the day. It'll be an umbrella day for sure, even though it won't rain the entire day. Some showers may be heavy. Highs will be a bit cooler than on Monday, but still in the low 70s. 

Below: the 18z GFS depiction of Tuesday-Thursday. Tuesday doesn't look like a big rain event but rain showers could be heavy at times during the day. Thursday may bring an additional chance of showers. 

Wednesday-Friday
Fall! After the strong front passes we see a decline in temperatures as we see strong cold air advecting in from the north. This will actually be due to an upper level low that will kick major hurricane Sam well out to sea. Wednesday will bring sunny and breezy conditions with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday will bring the chance of showers depending on how close the upper low gets to the state, but highs will likely be in the low to mid 60s. I will keep rain chances low for now. 

By Friday, we're right back to sunny and nice conditions. Highs should be in the low to mid 60s, feeling like fall! 

Saturday-Sunday
Some of what happens this weekend will depend on the location of the upper level low, but for now, the guidance has it well to our east, keeping our weekend nice and sunny. Let's go with that for now. 

​Finally, as I mentioned earlier, major hurricane Sam is expected to stay well away from Connecticut. There will likely be some high surf and rip current risk later in the week at the beaches. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with cooler temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

Not a whole lot going on the next week or so.  The two main focal points are at the beginning and and of the fcst period, with a great big nothing burger in between.

Currently: A cold front is near the Delmarva.  Low pressure is forming near the coast of the Carolinas.  These two systems will play minor roles in our wx thru early Sat.

Tonight:  A stray shower is possible at any time, as the front may be just close enough, esp S coast.  Still warm, as we're generally cloudy.  I went fairly close to temp guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there.  Lows only in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Definitely a generally cloudy day.  The biggest? is whether or not we get any showers from the low offshore, which will stay out to sea.  The best chance will be across Ern CT, w/lower chances as you head west.  I cut off 3-5 deg from NBM temps, due to cloud cover.  Look for highs of 70-75.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: We begin a clearing and warming trend as the low pulls out.  Sat could be the last very warm day for a while, and I expect most places to exceed 80 deg, w/the I 91 corridor possibly making a run at 85! Stayed close to NBM temps.

Long Term: The only notable wx event in the long term is a strong cold front way at the end of the fcst period, so this section will be brief.

Sun: Stayed close to NBM temps w/fair skies and neutral advection.  A few deg cooler than Sat.  Expect highs in the upper 70s.

Mon: Again fairly close to NBM temps.  May turn out a bit cooler along the S coast.  Highs another deg or two cooler- looking at mid 70s.

Tue: Fairly deep layer onshore flow sets up,  For this reason, went a deg or two lower than NBM temps and continue to step down temps a bit each day.  Expect highs of 70-75.

Wed: Combo of onshore flow and increasing clouds ahead of the next front should keep temps a few deg lower than NBM guidance.  Again 70-75 seems reasonable.  It appears we have a nighttime frontal passage.  Due to the timing and the onshore flow, the air mass is too stable for big t-storms.  However, onshore flow may provide enough moisture for localized brief heavy rainfall.  So maybe a quick shot of heavy rain, but no thunder Wed night?

Thu: Nice and cool behind the front.  NBM guidance appears to not realize a cold front has gone thru, even though nearly all guidance has plunging 850s.  Highs struggle to reach 70, maybe a 75 in the warmest spot if we downslope, but most of that wind should be advective, so I doubt it.  At any rate, took about 5 deg off NBM guidance here.

The long range looks to feature a continued step down into fall, w/each period turning cooler w/climo.  It appears we're in a pattern of midweek fropas for now, w/each fropa trending a bit stronger, nothing out of ther ordinary for the time of yr.


No reason for any graphics today, w/the pattern so quiet.

Take care and see u next week!

​-GP!

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Although I agree with GP that the patten doesn't look terribly active in the week ahead, things are timed just right to bring unsettled conditions. After a few days of quietly tracking, it's also time to talk about another area of interest in the Atlantic that could be close to home in a few days. Let's dive in. 

Above: the overall precipitation we've seen in the last three months. With greater than two feet of rain in parts of northern CT, we're well above normal at this point in the year with precipitation. More is likely on the way.

Today
It is a warm but decent start to the day. That haze you see in the sky? Thats more smoke from western wildfires that has reached the area. According to the National Weather Service however, most of that smoke is between 1,000-6,000 feet above the surface, so we are not expecting any significant air quality issues today. Today will be warm and slightly humid with highs in the 80s, but nothing terrible for outdoor activities. It'll feel like summer. 

I'm highlighting today because later this afternoon will see increased thunderstorm chances, especially in northern CT. A cold front will be approaching, and before it arrives there should be some ingredients in place for isolated thunderstorm activity. Again, I don't see anything to suggest that plans this afternoon need to be changed, as most of the high resolution guidance doesn't bring anything to the state this afternoon, but it is worth just keeping an eye to the sky. 

Overnight however (after midnight), we do expect there to be a greater chance of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, as the front pushes through the region. Strong winds would be the greatest hazard. 

Above, the high resolution NAM depiction of overnight. Not much happens but we'll keep an eye on things. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week actually looks pretty nice. We will see some gradual clearing on Monday as the front passes, and temperatures will be knocked down a bit, although still warmer than normal. Tuesday looks nice as well, with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s. However, we should see increasing clouds and showers late as another weak disturbance comes in from the Midwest. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The odd thing about the pattern this week is that the rain chances look to be confined to the later evening and overnight hours, meaning that most of Wednesday looks good right now too. Wednesday does look warm and humid in advance of our next front however.

During the evening and overnight hours another line of showers and thunderstorms are likely to be nearby. In fact, the SPC has issued a Day 4 slight risk for parts of the region, including northern CT. We don't see that often around here, so that has my attention. Overall, it means that there's greater than usual confidence that some period between Wednesday night and Thursday morning could be active with thunderstorm activity, some of which would be strong to severe, in parts of the state. 

​It's nothing anyone should be fretting over right now, but something we will be keeping an eye on. 

Above: A GFS depiction of Wednesday and Thursday. Note the daylight hours actually look ok, but we'll likely be battling showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday night.

Friday-Sunday
I think it is important to note that while I am talking about the tropics here, I am not declaring a SCW Period of Interest. This means that although we're watching an area of interest in the Atlantic more closely and talking about it, we do not have high confidence in a significant weather event. Let's talk about why. 

Above is the current NHC tropical outlook graphic, highlighting areas of interest. For our purposes, I only want you to focus on the orange zone off the US coastline. For the long trackers, the other orange zone near the coast of Africa is also something to watch in the very long term, but this isn't the post for that.

The area highlighted near the US coast has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in 5 days. 

I have been quietly watching the guidance the last few days, and now there's enough confidence to start talking about it. There has been a subtle signal that a tropical wave and upper level low would interact off the coast of the Bahamas, and form an area of low pressure. The GFS has actually led the way in showing potential development, but has bounced around quite a bit on both track and eventual intensity. That's not uncommon as nothing has formed yet. 

Essentially, a broad area of low pressure forms next week, and depending on which model you believe (you should believe none right now) the low tracks up the US coast before either moving inland or getting kicked out to sea. 

Here's what you need to know right now: this is not a situation where anyone needs to panic or feel anxious. Unlike Henri and Ida, we don't see much of a strong signal with this area of disturbed weather right now. I do think a tropical system forms, but right now it looks weak. I do think it comes close to the region, but it's unclear how strong it is and if it ever actually comes over land.

We will be watching closely, and as things come into better focus, we will let you know. I know a lot of you are shell shocked by how active this season has been, but we've been talking about an active season for months. We're nowhere near done with hurricane season but that's ok. We're here to provide you with the information you need as we get the data. For now, the data says watch and wait. 

​As a result of this disturbance, the weekend looks unclear and unsettled. For now, we will just have chances of rain each day. 

The Dailies
Monday: Decreasing clouds and partly sunny. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain late 20%. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds and showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain showers 40%. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny, warm, and humid, with increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Partial clearing possible late. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

Disc: Generally near to above normal temps and frequent frontal passages w/varying levels of pcpn for the next seven days.

Currently: Cold front mostly just west of the state, sending up little bands of showers, but nothing too heavy.  Low pressure along the front was over the Hudson Valley.

Tonight: The front will gradually pull away and lose its influence on the area.  Pcpn will taper off from W to E, w/the last vestiges pulling offshore before midnight. I went a touch below guidance, due to CAA, but not as cool as I could go, due to clouds.  Lows generally near 60.

Tomorrow: Sunny, breezy, and beautiful.  Guidance accepted.  Highs in the mid 70s.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sunny and continued pleasant temps.  Once again, guidance temps accepted.  Highs in the mid 70s, except some upper 70s along I 91.

Long Term: The main frontal passages in the long term are centered around Tue and Thu.

Sun turns much warmer.  With plenty of sun, temps rise into the low 80s.

For Mon, we ride similar conditions, although a sea breeze near the S coast could keep temps there a touch cooler.

For Tue, the next cold front approaches.  The new GFS is very robust with precip.  However, the NBM is much lighter.  For now, kept POPS at chance.  Either way, it probably turns out cloudier than the NBM would like, so I chopped a few deg off temps and went w/highs in the upper 70s.

For Wed, we're in between fronts.  The air mass aloft is 3-7 deg cooler, but since we'll have sun, sfc temps are only a deg or so cooler than those of Tue.

For Thu, the next front approaches.  Once again, the GFS has a  pretty strong pcpn signal, but the NBM does not, so compromised, and went w/chance POPS this far out.  I did chop a significant amount off NB temps for Thu, due to potential clouds and pcpn.  Also the NBM has a tendency to not recognize advection at that range.  So look for highs generally 70-75.

The long range does not look to feature any major pattern changes, at least the first half of the long range.  I am always cautious looking further out in the long range, because models tend to rush any pattern changes at that range.  The GFS does show some signs of another step down to fall around the 20-22 time frame.  If we account for the bias of it being too fast, we can slow it down to 9/25-27 or so, which is not far off from the climo calendar, if you will.

No graphics today, no solid systems to track!
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