A deep trough extends down the Ohio Valley, and a strong upper level jet exists just off the coast of Rhode Island. Behind this trough is a very strong ridge, extending over the western portion of the country. A small, developed low exists over Ohio and is translating east. This low will be our weather-maker for tomorrow, but is expected to weaken and pass over us quickly.
For tonight, low level stratus clouds have formed thanks to the upper level jet off the east coast. This strong level jet is advecting southerly air at high altitudes, which is overrunning the cold, dense air at the surface and producing these low level clouds. At the surface a predominant westerly flow exists, which is transporting cool Canadian air to the region. Temperatures tonight should stay a few degrees warmer in response to the presence of clouds above.
Low pressure at 1002 mb, according to models, will weaken as it approaches Connecticut. This is due to the terrain blocking feature of the Appalachians, which will disrupt the precipitation bands ahead of the warm front of this system. Also weak warm and cold advection at 850 mb and dry air entrainment doesn’t do this system any favors. For Monday, expect showers and some pockets of rain to pass through early for your commute. Any rogue showers behind the passing of this frontal system will move out by the afternoon, and clouds should loosen by the late afternoon and evening. Tomorrow will be breezy following the end of the rain, so even though temperatures will be in the mid 50s, a jacket would be advised to account for a chilly wind.
A strong ridge will build in Tuesday, with high pressure to our south east. Clockwise surface flow will advect warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50s and low 60s for the state. Besides afternoon cumulus to develop, these two days will be mostly sunny with light winds. Building clouds Wednesday night will make for a slightly warmer night, which is good news for everyone going trick 'or' treating! Temperatures will be in the lower 50s, so it would be a good idea to take a coat out with your costumes just in case.
Clouds will develop Thursday afternoon and thicken to overcast by the evening, as a frontal system approaches from the west. Two trough axis will combine and intensify come Friday, and this will be enough to keep showers in the area for two days. GFS models indicate rain showers to move in Thursday night late, and leave by late Friday night. Temperatures will remain in the 60s for these two days.
Saturday morning there might be some lingering showers, otherwise improving conditions are expected with a return to cooler weather. Dry air from Canada and improving skies will keep temperatures in the upper 50s. Sunday looks to be better with sunnier skies as high pressure looks to keep us dry for the start of next week.
Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather and enjoy your evening!!