Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a relatively active period last week, it looks like this week will be much quieter overall storm wise, with both potential threats that are on the table being minor in nature, however, we look to see a temperature roller coaster as temps rocket between below and above normal levels several times over the duration of the forecast period. Let’s break it down day by day, pausing as needed to inject some commentary on the two possible chances for some wintry weather.

Tomorrow will be quite a bit warmer than the last few days have been, with highs reaching up into the mid to upper 50s for most of the state, perhaps a few degrees lower in the NW hills and right on the immediate shoreline. Accompanying that warmer weather will be mostly sunny skies, combining to produce a beautiful day to start off the week and cure some of those back to work blues.

Tuesday, however, will not be so beautiful, with temps falling back into the upper 30s to perhaps 40 right on the coastline, and clouds rolling in to set the stage for the first of two minor systems to impact the area during the forecast period.  This is a simple overrunning event, that is, a weak wave of energy out ahead of a more consolidated system (which in this case misses us), bringing some light precipitation to the area. On the coastline, it looks warm enough to fall as rain, but in the interior, cold air damming and a general cooler profile looks to stick around long enough for some if not all of that precipitation to fall as snow. Even if the shoreline were to see snow, it looks like it would be too warm at the surface for anything to accumulate, so we’d just be looking at white rain. Inland though, accumulations will be limited by the QPF that is available, with no modeling suggesting anything more than a couple tenths of an inch of QPF, not all of which falls as snow in the wetter solutions. As a result, accumulations will be minor if at all, probably limited to an inch or two at the absolute ceiling with the more likely totals being somewhere closer to a coating. We’ll put out a map tomorrow evening if needed, but overall, not a big deal. Snow also looks to come after the bulk of the afternoon commute is over, so travel impacts won’t be a big deal, and it should be all cleaned up and ready to go for Wednesday morning. Roads might be slick though if you’re out and about Tuesday evening, so keep that in mind.

Here’s the plumes of the 21 members of the SREF ensemble for BDL and BDR, showing the spread among the ensemble members. At BDL, around a half to two thirds of the members have a coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow, with one outlier at close to an inch and a few members having zero, while at BDR, most of the members are in agreement on this being a rain event, with only four of those 21 members having over a tenth of an inch of snow.

Wednesday is up in the air as of right now as far as temps go: some guidance warms us into the 50s, while some keeps cold air dammed at the surface and as a result keeps us several degrees cooler. Have hedged towards the cooler side of the envelope given that modeling recently has been overestimating warmth and fresh snowpack on the ground may help keep temps down a bit from what model shows, and will forecast temps in the mid to upper 40s for Wednesday, although there is certainly bust potential into the 50s if the warmer solutions verified, especially if snow did not materialize itself on Tuesday evening. Here’s the same SREF plumes, but this time for temperature, showing the spread on Wednesday for BDL(Other stations are similar, I’ve circled the spread in blue to be noticeable). In terms of precipitation, rain showers should continue through most of the day before tapering off late.

Thursday and Friday, models are in agreement on colder weather, with highs in the low to mid 40s Thursday and similar to that on Friday, maybe a few degrees warmer on the coast and a few degrees cooler in the interior depending on the positioning of a thermal gradient which will be near the area. Sunny skies expected both days.

The forecast gets a bit more interesting towards the end of the period as a coastal system looks to come up the eastern seaboard Friday night into Saturday. There certainly is more QPF around with this system than the Tuesday one, but temps look to be warm enough to be mostly rain for the area. However, it’s possible that the usual cooler spots, specifically the NW and NE hills, could remain cold enough to begin as a short period of snow or wintry mix prior to transitioning to plain rain. Coastline looks to, barring a major shift in modeling, be all rain for this event as of now. Considering we are at the end of the forecast period, will simply go ahead and paint a chance of rain for the shoreline and a chance of rain and snow for the interior, with 50% pops(Probability of precipitation) the maximum for right now considering the lead time.

We’ll be totaling the results of the November forecast contest shortly, and will announce the winner on the page when it is determined! Look for that in the next few days.

Until next time, have a wonderful start to your week, and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!

-SA

Over the weekend, modeling continued to vary, but the general trend was west, bringing a more significant impact to the state in the form of rain and snow. The stronger system also allowed this to trend into more of a snow event, with dynamic cooling bringing a heavy wet snow event for all. We reached the peak of the west trend at yesterdays 12z runs, where most modeling was so far west that most of the state saw mostly rain, but the 0z and todays 12z suite has slowly shifted back east to near a benchmark track, which shifts the heaviest precipitation a little east, and at the same time, works colder air into our region as we are further west of the storm, bringing higher snow amounts back to the region.

Modeling is now in relative agreement on a storm passing on top of or just west of the 40/70 benchmark, starting most of the state as rain except for far interior areas, and then, as the low bombs out and brings in cold air, flipping all areas to snow from NW to SE. The warm ocean will have an influence here, but given that modeling usually overestimates coastal impacts, I don’t think it’ll have much impact on totals outside from right on the beaches to maybe a mile inland or so. Otherwise, a general NW to SE gradient looks to be in effect here, relating to when the event changes over to snow. Models all in good agreement on this gradient.

What models are not in agreement over is the exact track and temperatures, as well as to a lesser extent, the amount of QPF that we have to work with. Let’s look at the latest guidance one by one and break down what solution it would have for our area, and then we’ll talk about what we’re weighting and why.

To start us off, here’s a gallery of the NAM, GGEM, GFS, and UKMET’s MSLP positions, all for 7 PM Wednesday night. We can’t include the EURO here due to copyright restrictions, but it’s similar to the GFS, perhaps a hair west of it.

ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO MAJOR IMPACTS ON THANKSGIVING TRAVEL.

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

As we’ve been talking about for almost a week now, a coastal storm is expected to develop in the gulf tomorrow and come up the coastline, passing near the 40/70 benchmark on Wednesday and bringing significant QPF to the state, with quite a bit of that being in the form of snow due to strong dynamics and a fresh source of cold air from a front coming in from the west. This event will produce accumulating snow for the entire state, and in the process, thoroughly mess up thanksgiving travel.  

This discussion is broken into two parts: The first breaks down the models and provides technical discussion; the second is the actual forecast and impacts. If you’re interested in the science, read on, otherwise, skip down towards the end of the discussion for the map, forecast, timing, and impacts. We’ve bolded where you should join us again, look for it right below the snowmap.

In terms of models for this event, we’ve had an interesting progression over the last several days. Modeling was previously in relatively good agreement in having this event pass well to our east, bringing no impact to the region. However, a few days ago, we began to see the EURO model bringing the event west, introducing some interaction between the northern and southern streams and as a result bringing the storm further west as well as making it stronger. The EURO continued as the western outlier for several runs before the rest of the guidance began to catch on Thursday and Friday, bringing the event closer to the coast and introducing precipitation into the forecast. Here’s the GFS for 0z Friday and 0z Saturday for this event, showing the shift west(Notice it's not even on the map on Friday it's so far east!)

First, the 12z NAM. The NAM has consistently been the eastern outlier on this event, being weak and unorganized as a result of missing the phase between the northern and southern streams and as a result having a strung out system with little QPF to work with. The run is quite cold though as a result of being further east and bringing less of the warm sector into the state, and as a result, it is the snowiest solution for those areas that would have temp issues on other models, that being SECT. The NAM begins as snow in all areas except for possibly beginning as a little light rain on the coastline, and stays as snow throughout the entire event. Light precip would break out over the course of Wednesday morning, with the heaviest rates being during the afternoon into evening hours. By 1 AM Thursday morning, precip has exited the state mostly because of the weaker event leading to less wraparound precipitation. Total QPF is  .5”-1.25” from NW to SE, all of which falls as snow except for a start as rain in coastal sections. Verbatim, the NAM is a 6-8” snowstorm for NW areas, increasing to 8-12” in SE areas. Here are images of the NAM’s estimated precipitation types (We don’t use these when forecasting because they can be somewhat inaccurate, but for a simple visual representation, they are a good display tool) at 7 AM, 1 PM, 7 PM, and 1 AM Thursday, along with a total QPF map. 

Next, the 12z GFS. The GFS is the closest to the consensus right now with a track right over the benchmark, and has been relatively consistent for this event for the past several runs. The model has much stronger phasing than the NAM, but does not bring the system as far west as some of the earlier EURO runs due to a faster southern stream acting as a kicker and ejecting out the low to the east. It’s warmer though, as the storm comes closer to the coast, and as a result, most areas start off as some rain aside from interior hills before a changeover occurs NW to SE over the afternoon, and by 1 PM Wednesday, most of the state is heavy snow. Snow also lasts longer into the night because of more mature wraparound. Total QPF is .75-1.25” almost due west to east, and total snowfall is in the 6-10” range statewide, with a little less right on the coastline. Here are the same 5 images from the NAM, but for the GFS. The 12z GEFS mean agrees with the GFS, and is perhaps a hair SE of it. 

Continuing our move west, we next come to the 12z GGEM. The 12z GGEM carries a track similar to the 12z GFS, perhaps a hair west, but is much warmer in the midlevels and at the surface as a result of tracking the mid level low centers further north and therefore introducing mixed precipitation and rain into much of the state, especially in southern areas. While the model does have a warm bias and therefore we are inclined to discount its temperatures, we are taking notice of it as a possible solution that can occur. Verbatim, the GGEM would start pretty much everyone as rain before a quick changeover Northern areas and a much more drawn out one in southern areas. It would have a general 6-8” snowfall in the northern areas, and much less towards the coastline, with probably less than 2” at the beaches, especially SE areas. It’s a marginal solution, and we aren’t giving it a lot of weight as a result, but it’s a way that this system can bust on the warmer side and therefore it’s worth pointing out. It’s also got a good amount of wraparound snow, which is where the more marginal areas would get their limited accumulations. Again, here are our 5 images from the GGEM. 

Next up is the 12z EURO. We legally can’t post images of the EURO because it’s a paid service, but we can tell you what it’s got, so let’s do that J. The 12z EURO, after being a western outlier the last several runs, has shifted east towards the consensus, and now tracks a little west of the benchmark, but with a very strong storm, bringing quite a bit of QPF to the region. The EURO is cooler than its 0z runs, but warmer than the GFS, so southern areas would start as rain before flipping to snow in the afternoon as the day goes on. The EURO has quite a bit of QPF associated with it, meaning that the areas which stay all snow would see over 10” verbatim, mainly the NW hills.  Coastal areas would start as rain before flipping to dynamically impacted heavy snow later in the day, and while not ringing up the blockbuster totals, would still result in several inches of snow for all. The EURO also introduces the possibility of mixed precipitation in eastern areas that see mid level warmth infused, primarily in the form of sleet east of around I91 or so. This is certainly a possibility and something to keep an eye on, but the possibility of sleet is relatively low considering right now the EURO is one of the only models bringing it in. Not including it in the forecast, but we’ll keep an eye on it. EURO also is aggressive with back end precipitation, allowing snow to persist for most of the overnight. EURO Ensembles are similar to the operational, although a bit cooler, which would mean a little more snow in those coastal areas.

Finally, we have the 12z UKMET. The UKMET is an outlier in having a strong tucked in low close to the coast, flooding the midlevel’s with warm air and producing a ton of rain/sleet across the region with little to no snow except for far NW areas. As of right now, it’s a significant outlier, and considering the general east trend, we are tossing it for the purpose of the forecast, although we’ll mention it here just to cover all the bases. It’s the biggest way that this storm could melt down and result in mostly rain for us, but as of right now, it’s a low probability scenario. Here’s a map of 850 mb temps from the UKMET, showing the vast intrusion of mid level warmth and rain as a result.

As far as the other guidance goes, SREFS are clustered in two camps, one that is a warmer and weaker solution, the other an all out snow bomb with 10”+ for all. Mean is on the BM. RGEM looks like the NAM, but it’s at the very end of it’s range and as a result will not be heavily weighted. JMA similar to those as well. We are not weighting any of this guidance due to notorious unreliability at these ranges.

So, what guidance are we weighting in this forecast? The EURO and GFS are the two middle ground solutions here, and as a result, we will give both fairly high weight, with a 50% weight to the EURO/EUROens and 30% to the GFS/GEFS. We will assign 10% weight to the GGEM and NAM as outliers, and will discount the UKMET entirely. When we put it all together, we get this map.

If you’re scrolling down from the top looking for impacts, join us again here.

We’re forecasting one to three inches of snowfall in the SE corner of the state, two to five inches for the majority of the coastline, four to eight inches for most of the interior, and six to ten inches in the NW hills. In general, we went towards the more conservative side of the forecast, considering we’re still 2 days out and there’s several ways this can trend into a lesser event, either too far to the east and limiting QPF or too far to the west and bringing in warmth. If modeling holds or becomes more optimistic on amounts tomorrow, we will likely issue an updated map tomorrow evening raising totals, and likewise, if it becomes less aggressive, we will lower totals or hold with this map for a final map. This map is slightly lower than the model consensus, so if the models remain exactly the same, we’ll probably nudge up slightly tomorrow afternoon. As always, exact totals will end up being determined by mesoscale banding and timing differences, and some areas will bust high and some low, but for the most part, this is a good starting point.

Timing: Most modeling is in relatively good agreement as far as timing goes; although there are some minor differences, which could influence start and end times. For the most part, the mornings commute looks to be OK, with skies likely dry or perhaps some light rain or snow falling. Do not make the mistake though that it is OK to head to work or school, because precipitation arrives with a vengeance from SW to NE throughout the course of the morning on Wednesday, and by noon or so, most areas are seeing moderate to heavy precipitation. Northern interior areas should start as snow from the start, while southern areas likely start as a mix or rain, before changeover takes place from northwest to southeast over the course of the early afternoon. By the time the afternoon commute rolls around; pretty much everywhere should be seeing snow, with heavy snow quite possible in many areas. The afternoon commute will be nothing less than a disaster, with heavy snow and exceptionally heavy traffic due to the thanksgiving travel rush. Conditions will not begin to improve until after midnight, and it may be until Thursday morning before all of the roads are back to semi-normal conditions.

We highly recommend travelling tomorrow to your thanksgiving plans if at all possible, but if you must travel on Wednesday, try to leave as early in the day as possible and expect major delays, poor conditions, and dangerous driving conditions. Have an emergency kit in your car with warm clothes, food and water, and a fully charged cell phone, and be prepared to deal with accidents and spinouts if they come up. Stick to major roads, which will be better plowed if possible, and don’t be above pulling over if conditions get too dangerous for you to handle. Better to be late for thanksgiving than not make it at all because of an accident that could have been avoided by waiting.

Air travel is also likely to be impacted. In general, the earlier in the day your flight is on Wednesday, the better chance you’ve got to get out OK, but it’s possible that airlines will make pre-emptive cancellations and flights earlier in the day will be impacted as well. Thursday should be OK for the most part, although residual delays and cancellations can be expected.

Many schools are closed for Wednesday, but those that are open certainly could be impacted either in the terms of a closure or early dismissal, depending on timing shifts over the next few runs and the whims of each individual district.

Bust potential: For the interior, bust potential is low with this event, as all guidance is in good agreement. For the coastline, bust potential is moderate, and it comes down to how models are estimating temperatures and track vs. reality. A little warmer than forecast, and we see mainly rain at the coastline, a little cooler, an all snow event. The current forecast takes a middle ground. A solution like the UKMET, bringing all rain for all, or like the JMA, which fringes NW areas and lowers accumulations for all due to less QPF, is possible, and would result in a more spectacular bust of the forecast to the low side, but the odds of that are low, likely less than 10%. Similarly, we could see something like the ARW and SREF members have which is a full out snow bomb with a western track and cold temps and be looking at widespread 12”+ amounts, but this is also comparatively low, likely less than 10%. Overall, forecasters confidence is moderate with this event.

To summarize: Precipitation moves in Wednesday morning, mainly as snow north and rain south, before changing over to all snow throughout the afternoon. Major travel impacts for the Thanksgiving period, with possibly treacherous conditions on roads, especially later in the evening. Storm moves out Wednesday night, with total accumulations of 4-8” interior, 3-6” coastline, and 2-5” SECT.

We are in storm mode here at SCW, with a forecaster on duty around the clock watching the models and updating as needed. We will have a small update tomorrow morning, with our final call package and map tomorrow at around the same time as tonight’s update. We will be updating rapid fire during the event on Wednesday on Facebook and Twitter, and will post significant updates to the site as well. Don’t forget to follow us @SouthernCTWX if you haven’t already and like us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/southernconnecticutweather for the most up to the minute info.

In closing, enjoy the snow, and remember, when deciding to travel or postpone, that your safety is more important than whatever plans you may have. If you’ve got specific questions, comments, or want advice on travel etc. leave us a comment here or on Facebook (quicker response likely), and we’ll get back to you as soon as we can, although if the response is load is overwhelming, we can’t promise a response, although we’ll do our absolute best.

As always, thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather! We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.

-SA (Map by TW).

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

  Currently we have dry conditions across the state with temperatures in the 50s statewide. The dry conditions will change as a disturbance enters the area from the southwest and west bring showers and thunderstorms with it. The rain will impact the area from later this afternoon through tomorrow evening while temperatures stay quite moderate. Even lows for  tomorrow evening do not look to get out of the upper 40s. Rain could be quite moderate to heavy statewide with about a half inch to an inch of rain falling before all is said and done, wouldn't rule out a rumble of thunder two as well. Rain looks to taper off later Monday night setting the table for a nice Tuesday with temps in the low to mid 50s.

  Then the forecast looks to get rather dicey heading past Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Models bring a fairly substantial low pressure system into the area Wednesday morning or afternoon and with cold air filtering down through New England, courtesy of a strong, cold Canadian high pressure system, that could mean substantial snows all the way to the shoreline. Now there are some big questions to be answered between now and Wednesday. Most of them have to do with low track and intensity, which will affect temperature, precipitation, and QPF. Models such as the GFS and Euro bring a substantial amount of precipitation to the area, but the Euro brings the low track much closer to the shore, therefor flipping the shoreline to heavy rain as mid and surface layers of the atmosphere are flooded with warm air. The Euro still brings a moderate amount of snow to the state all the way to the shoreline before a changeover to plain rain in places south of I84. The GFS tracks the low further away from the coast but still looks a little warm in the mid and surface levels of the atmosphere, but, the GFS does bring snow to the area, very close to the amount portrayed by the Euro.

  Other impacts from the storm, as with most nor'easters, could be winds and coastal flooding, especially later Wednesday afternoon and night as the storm really begins to intensify just off the coast. Euro shows sustained winds of 20-30 mph at the shore with gusts over 50 mph, while the GFS shows very much the same.

Temperatures as portrayed by the models are very borderline for any kind of snowfall, basically in the 32-35 degree range, meaning a very wet, heavy snow. So any kind of snow that falls will be very much intensity dependent and dynamics driven. Meaning precipitation intensity would need to be quite substantial to get any kind of accumulation, especially as you head toward the shore. Have to watch how far a strong, cold , Canadian high makes it south before the storm low gets up here. The high pressure system would bring even colder temps into the area if it descended far enough south and affect storm track, if the high doesn't make it far enough south, the low pressure system will track closer to the coast and with less cold air to work with, that means mostly rain. 

  So to sum up, moderate to high impact storm looking more and more likely for Wednesday and Thursday. Could be major impacts to holiday travel with a moderate snowfall looking very possible for the entire state to the shoreline. Watching the models and strong Canadian high pressure placement to determine track of nor'easter. Coastal flooding and wind also look to be moderate impacts from the low pressure system, especially later Wednesday into Thursday as low really begins to wrap itself up and strengthen. Will be watching very closely, and will be our main focus over the coming days.

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Yesterday and today were our first real taste of mid winter cold, with average temps the last few days being below average even in our coldest time of the year, mid January! This morning marked a record low temp at Bridgeport(22 degrees), and many other area stations had record lows as well. 

More of the same looks to continue for the rest of the week, with highs tomorrow through Saturday being mainly in the 30s, although tomorrow could sneak into the lower 40s perhaps in southern areas. Sunny skies expected throughout the period aside from a low chance(say 15-20%) of flurries/a brief snow shower early tomorrow morning from a passing wave overhead. Best shot at some flakes would be in eastern sections. Perhaps a dusting is possible if some heavier snow showers do form, but the most likely scenario is just nothing to some flurries. In our last update, we mentioned a possible snowstorm that the GGEM had for the period, but model consensus is strong on that system remaining well away from our area. Here’s images of the expected highs tomorrow through Saturday from the GFS model. Keep in mind that these are for GMT, so you have to subtract 5 hours (so for example 0z Friday GMT is 7 PM Thursday EST.)

The second half of the forecast gets warmer and wetter as a system cuts to our west, bringing us into the warm sector and also bringing in precipitation. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all look to be relatively warm, with Monday and Tuesday being well above normal with highs in the low to mid 60s Monday and upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday. Sunday will be closer to normal with highs in the upper 40s. Rain looks to move in  Sunday night, and last through most of Monday. It will be more showery in nature, but coverage will be fairly extensive, and as a result, a nice round of rain for all should be expected. Showers diminish overnight Monday, and while some lingering showers may be around for Tuesday, on the whole, the day looks much drier. No snow is expected with this system. Here’s a shot of the system at 7 AM Monday from the GGEM model.

The guidance then differs for the Thanksgiving holiday period as so far as temps go, with some of the models keeping us above normal through the rest of the week and some cooling us down. I’m leaning towards the cooler side of guidance, especially towards the Thursday-Friday time period, but because it’s outside the forecast period, won’t give any sort of numbers for right now.

We’re also keeping an eye on a possible event for Black Friday. Models are all over the map and have shown anything from a snowstorm to a rainstorm to a sunny day in recent runs, so not going to get into any more details except highlight the potential for an event in the period. Given that it’s 9 days out though, it’s still perfectly possible that it’ll be a sunny day, so don’t go changing your plans just yet J

Have a great rest of your week and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!

-SA

Update 11/17/2014: Lowered chance of precipitation for Tuesday to 30% as a result of weaker FROPA and overall less moisture to work with. May eliminate it entirely in afternoon update, but will leave it for now. -SA

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently we have overcast skies and some light rain and even sleet and snow up in Litchfield county. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across the state. Outside of the small area of precipitation some of the state is contending with right now, we have a larger area of precipitation off to our south and west. This area of precipitation will be moving into a still cold airmass, thus prompting a winter weather advisory in Litchfield county and in northern Fairfield county for some freezing rain, sleet, and snow overnight. I expect mid level temps to rise above freezing by the middle of the morning tomorrow, thus, any frozen precipitation will change to plain rain. Toward the shoreline there could be a quick period of sleet or snow but should quickly change to plain rain with both mid level and surface temperatures above freezing for the duration of the precipitation.

The main area of precipitation moves in during the pre-dawn hours of Monday, bringing an initial burst of frozen precipitation to areas, especially away from the shoreline, but temperatures will rise rapidly in most of the state outside of Litchfield County, which will change over to plain rain later on Monday morning as cold air will stay entrenched longer there. Throughout the day tomorrow there could be heavy rain, and winds will dramatically increase.

Rain will persist through Monday afternoon and evening, and then as the low begins to pull out of the area, we could see areas in northwestern Connecticut change back to frozen precipitation for a bit at the tail end of the event. Whether this changeover occurs will be determined by the timing of the low exiting vs. the cold air arriving.  Looking toward Tuesday morning, a strong Arctic front moves in from the west and will set off some scattered rain and snow squalls across the state, winds will increase and temperatures will drop dramatically across the state. By Tuesday afternoon even the shoreline will get in on some scattered snow squalls. Depending on how much moisture accompanies the front, some of these squalls could bring heavier snow with them for a brief period, which would result in lower visibilities and tricky conditions. We’ll be watching the radar on Tuesday and will update as needed for any squalls that do pop up.. Behind the front, strong winds persist, and temperatures will continue to plummet through the 20s. Tuesday night looks to be clear, but quite cold with temps ranging from the upper teens to the 20s across the state. Here's an image of forecast lows Tuesday night from the GFS model.

Looking at the rest of next week, temperatures look to be quite frigid with cold air staying entrenched through next weekend. High temperatures don't look to get out of the 30s from Wednesday through Sunday. As far as snow, we are watching a little disturbance in the Thursday-Friday time period, which has been on again off again on various modeling, but it doesn’t look to have a huge impact even if it were to hit us. Thus, have painted in a low probability of precipitation for the end of the week into the daily forecast. Other than that, it looks relatively dry from late Tuesday through next Sunday. Here's an image of the GGEM model for that period, which is currently the most aggressive of the guidance(although it still only shows a light snowfall, so the ceiling for this event is fairly low).

Looking at the rest of next week, temperatures look to be quite frigid with cold air staying entrenched through next weekend. High temperatures don't look to get out of the 30s from Wednesday through Sunday. As far as snow, we are watching a little disturbance in the Thursday-Friday time period, which has been on again off again on various modeling, but it doesn’t look to have a huge impact even if it were to hit us. Thus, have painted in a low probability of precipitation for the end of the week into the daily forecast. Other than that, it looks relatively dry from late Tuesday through next Sunday.

In the long range, it looks as if the airmass will begin to moderate for a short time starting later next Sunday. Also looking for a bigger storm in the Monday and Tuesday (11/24-11/25) time period, which would be mostly rain, but on the backside of that event, we’re back into the cold just in time for Thanksgiving, and so we’ll be keeping an eye on it for any possible travel impacts that might arise across the state or New England as a whole.

In terms of models used, consensus is high throughout the period except for the Thursday/Friday disturbance, so took a blend of all guidance for the forecast today-Wednesday and Saturday-Sunday and added light chances of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.

Today is Sunday, so it’s time for the 7 day forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with frozen precip north, rain south early, then snow sleet and freezing rain north after midnight, brief period of sleet to rain at the shore after 1 am. Temps around freezing inland, mid 30s to around 40 at the shore and rising after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40%

Monday: Cloudy with frozen precipitation across the northern part of the state becoming all rain by late morning, rain continuing and becoming heavy across southern Connecticut. Temps mid 30s to around 40 inland, mid 40s at the shore and rising. Becoming windy. Chance of precipitation 80%

Monday night: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times and very windy, temps 40-45 inland, 50s at the shore. Temps dropping late. Chance of precipitation 100%

Tuesday: Rain early, then rain and snow squalls as strong Arctic cold front approaches, temps in the 40s and and 50s early dropping through the 30s throughout the day. Very windy. Chance of precip 30%

Tuesday night: Lingering snow squalls early, becoming mostly clear. Temps mid to upper teens inland, windy. Chance of precip 20%

Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, cold. Temps low 30s inland, mid 30s at the shore. Chance of precip 0%

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, cold. Temps low to mid 20s inland, mid to upper 20s at the shore. Chance of precip 0%

Thursday: Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds in the afternoon, temps mid 30s across the state, Chance of precip 10%

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance of snow showers late, temps mid 20s, Chance of precip 20%

Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, temps mid to upper 30s,  Chance of precip 30%

Friday night: Clouds early then clearing, temps low to mid 20s, Chance of precip 20%

Saturday: Mostly sunny, temps mid 30s,  Chance of precip 0%

Saturday night: Partly cloudy, temps mid 20s, Chance of precip 0%

Sunday: Mostly sunny early then increasing clouds in the afternoon, temps upper 30s and rising. Chance of precip 10%

Sunday night: Cloudy, snow and frozen precip changing to all rain, temps 40s and rising. Chance of precip 20%

Have a good rest of the night everyone! Stay tuned for more updates! -Tim