Good afternoon from SCW.
We've had cold, we've had snow, we've had heat, and we've had thunderstorms all in the first two weeks of the month! After early indications that the week ahead would be unsettled, things have changed, and now we're looking at a calm week as we head into Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start to summer. The tradeoff will be a slightly cooler than normal week, but not nearly as chilly as some of the conditions we saw just a week or two ago.
All the while, we're watching our first named tropical system of the season. Let's dive in.
We've had cold, we've had snow, we've had heat, and we've had thunderstorms all in the first two weeks of the month! After early indications that the week ahead would be unsettled, things have changed, and now we're looking at a calm week as we head into Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start to summer. The tradeoff will be a slightly cooler than normal week, but not nearly as chilly as some of the conditions we saw just a week or two ago.
All the while, we're watching our first named tropical system of the season. Let's dive in.
Above is the latest GOES-E imagery of the East Coast. We're socked in with more clouds today, and Arthur is swirling off the southeast coast. Arthur is expected to make a close pass to North Carolina, but the steering pattern will likely keep Arthur safely away from New England.
Monday-Thursday
Actually, there isn't a whole lot to say in this discussion. The two main features during this period will be a large upper level low that will settle in the Mid-Atlantic and southeast, and Tropical Storm Arthur. Tropical Storm Arthur will move north-northeastward, bringing some rain and wind to North Carolina through tomorrow. The upper level low over land along with a building high in Canada will keep the storm away.
That said, seas will be rough and it could be breezy at the shore over the course of the week as there is a pressure gradient. This delicate balance however should keep rain away. There may be some brief showers, but nothing significant.
Monday-Thursday
Actually, there isn't a whole lot to say in this discussion. The two main features during this period will be a large upper level low that will settle in the Mid-Atlantic and southeast, and Tropical Storm Arthur. Tropical Storm Arthur will move north-northeastward, bringing some rain and wind to North Carolina through tomorrow. The upper level low over land along with a building high in Canada will keep the storm away.
That said, seas will be rough and it could be breezy at the shore over the course of the week as there is a pressure gradient. This delicate balance however should keep rain away. There may be some brief showers, but nothing significant.
Above is a European model depiction of the pattern at the upper levels over the next few days. Arthur is a weak storm that is easily brushed aside by the ridging to the north and upper level low in over the US. That puts us in a sort of dry slot that should allow us to have our first dry period in some time.
Overall, temperatures look to be fairly consistent, with a warming trend as we head toward the holiday weekend.
Memorial Day Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
The tradeoff for a calm week may be an unsettled holiday weekend. As the upper level low swirls offshore, it may make a run toward the region on Saturday. If it reaches us, that means that we would see some unsettled weather. It's far enough out however that I'm not too concerned. It looks like it will feel like Memorial Day, with warmer temperatures during the period.
Tropical Storm Arthur
It wouldn't be a DB discussion if we didn't talk tropical. Tropical Storm Arthur formed yesterday and is the sixth consecutive storm that developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, which is June 1st. It is fairly disorganized at the moment, but is expected to pick up intensity as it approaches North Carolina.
Although early season systems do not have a strong correlation to an active hurricane season, Arthur is a reminder that hurricane season requires all of us to be prepared.
While wind makes all the headlines, water in the form of rainfall and storm surge kills 90% of those lost during tropical events. Shoreline folks in particular should be preparing in case--in something that would be entirely on brand for 2020--we end up receiving a tropical impact.
This hurricane season is expected to be active. Don't wait until the last minute to prepare.
Overall, temperatures look to be fairly consistent, with a warming trend as we head toward the holiday weekend.
Memorial Day Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
The tradeoff for a calm week may be an unsettled holiday weekend. As the upper level low swirls offshore, it may make a run toward the region on Saturday. If it reaches us, that means that we would see some unsettled weather. It's far enough out however that I'm not too concerned. It looks like it will feel like Memorial Day, with warmer temperatures during the period.
Tropical Storm Arthur
It wouldn't be a DB discussion if we didn't talk tropical. Tropical Storm Arthur formed yesterday and is the sixth consecutive storm that developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, which is June 1st. It is fairly disorganized at the moment, but is expected to pick up intensity as it approaches North Carolina.
Although early season systems do not have a strong correlation to an active hurricane season, Arthur is a reminder that hurricane season requires all of us to be prepared.
While wind makes all the headlines, water in the form of rainfall and storm surge kills 90% of those lost during tropical events. Shoreline folks in particular should be preparing in case--in something that would be entirely on brand for 2020--we end up receiving a tropical impact.
This hurricane season is expected to be active. Don't wait until the last minute to prepare.
The Dailies
Monday: Chance of showers early, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Chance of showers early, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
