Currently: A cold front is near the Delmarva. Low pressure is forming near the coast of the Carolinas. These two systems will play minor roles in our wx thru early Sat.
Tonight: A stray shower is possible at any time, as the front may be just close enough, esp S coast. Still warm, as we're generally cloudy. I went fairly close to temp guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there. Lows only in the upper 60s.
Tomorrow: Definitely a generally cloudy day. The biggest? is whether or not we get any showers from the low offshore, which will stay out to sea. The best chance will be across Ern CT, w/lower chances as you head west. I cut off 3-5 deg from NBM temps, due to cloud cover. Look for highs of 70-75.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: We begin a clearing and warming trend as the low pulls out. Sat could be the last very warm day for a while, and I expect most places to exceed 80 deg, w/the I 91 corridor possibly making a run at 85! Stayed close to NBM temps.
Long Term: The only notable wx event in the long term is a strong cold front way at the end of the fcst period, so this section will be brief.
Sun: Stayed close to NBM temps w/fair skies and neutral advection. A few deg cooler than Sat. Expect highs in the upper 70s.
Mon: Again fairly close to NBM temps. May turn out a bit cooler along the S coast. Highs another deg or two cooler- looking at mid 70s.
Tue: Fairly deep layer onshore flow sets up, For this reason, went a deg or two lower than NBM temps and continue to step down temps a bit each day. Expect highs of 70-75.
Wed: Combo of onshore flow and increasing clouds ahead of the next front should keep temps a few deg lower than NBM guidance. Again 70-75 seems reasonable. It appears we have a nighttime frontal passage. Due to the timing and the onshore flow, the air mass is too stable for big t-storms. However, onshore flow may provide enough moisture for localized brief heavy rainfall. So maybe a quick shot of heavy rain, but no thunder Wed night?
Thu: Nice and cool behind the front. NBM guidance appears to not realize a cold front has gone thru, even though nearly all guidance has plunging 850s. Highs struggle to reach 70, maybe a 75 in the warmest spot if we downslope, but most of that wind should be advective, so I doubt it. At any rate, took about 5 deg off NBM guidance here.
The long range looks to feature a continued step down into fall, w/each period turning cooler w/climo. It appears we're in a pattern of midweek fropas for now, w/each fropa trending a bit stronger, nothing out of ther ordinary for the time of yr.
No reason for any graphics today, w/the pattern so quiet.
Take care and see u next week!