Our first winter event in a while is on its way for tomorrow afternoon through the wee hours of Sunday, with accumulating snow statewide transitioning to rain Saturday night as temps warm. Overall, we’re expecting a moderate event, with mainly advisory levels of accumulation, but there’s some uncertainty on either end of the spectrum – should we see a colder than modeled solution play out, we could approach warning level totals in some areas, while dry air or a weaker/warmer storm could lead to an event that’s more wet than white.
Here’s a look at the setup on the hires NAM.
The other main determinant will be how long the cold air can hold on at the surface before the warmer air moving in from the SW wins out. Generally, a more intense system will hold cold air in longer while still bringing more QPF, and as the changeover period is during the height of the precipitation, even a variation of an hour or two will make a big difference in snow totals. To show this, here is surface temps at 8 PM tomorrow from the Euro and the GFS as well as the final snowmaps from these models. I wouldn’t take either of the snowmaps as gospel, but the point is clear – a small shift towards colder temps has a big impact in overall snow totals. Generally, the guidance has been trending a bit stronger and a bit colder, and so we’re a bit more confident in higher totals than we were yesterday.
Forecast and Timing
Here’s our forecast map for this event.
Look for snow to overspread the state starting in the mid afternoon, with western areas seeing snow as early as 2 PM ish while eastern areas will need to wait until around dark. Changeover to rain from south to north begins around dinnertime, but by midnight or so we’ll see a dryslot move in and shut off most precipitation. Could see some mixed rain and snow showers around through the overnight into the early morning hours, but I think by sunrise any lingering precip should be gone.
This is an advisory level event for most and the impacts reflect that. Could call it low impact in the SE corner, but 2-3” ish is still plowable and I think that’s a legitimate possibility there. We have Winter Weather Advisories out from the NWS for all of the state except northern Litchfield County where there is a Winter Storm Warning.
Although snowfall accumulations will be relatively low, I do expect a period of moderate to heavy snow centered around dinnertime or so. That will make road conditions an issue, and I exepct things to go downhill fast as heavy precipitation moves in. Plan your travels early in the day if you can!
This should be a rain/snow event and no icing is expected.
I do not expect much wind with this storm.
I don’t think snow will be all that wet, and amounts aren’t enough to do serious damage given the banal winds.
Luckily it’s a weekend and there’s no school/work to worry about, but if you’ve got plans Saturday afternoon or evening you should definitely be aware of the forecast and be ready to modify your travels if necessary.
The totals won’t be all that crazy, but a quick period of heavy snow is all it takes to gum up the roads. The crews will be out there doing what they do best, and I expect that major roadways will still be moving (albeit slowly), but secondary and tertiary roads will be challenging. Sunday is the much better travel day of the weekend if you can swing it.
All in all, a pretty textbook moderate event for the state. We’ll have live updates on our social platforms as needed tomorrow, and please send us your reports on Facebook, Twitter, or by email – we really appreciate them. Thanks for reading SCW, enjoy the snow, and have a great long weekend!