Let’s cut right to the chase. We are increasing snow totals for tomorrow across the state due to a western trend over the past couple of model cycles that have brought the edge of the heaviest snow westward into eastern Connecticut while the moderate snow has made its way west into most of the state. Our new snowmap is below.
The wildcard for this forecast is that there is strong frontogenesis in the midlevels and the lift generated there will result in a narrow and relatively strong band of snow on the western edge of the system. Wherever that band sets up will likely exceed the forecast snow totals by a fairly substantial amount, but where it sets up is very much unclear; all of the guidance seems to have it’s own projection for where we’ll see it. As such, it’s difficult to adjust the forecast too much to account for it as it’s going to be a fairly small area that sees a drastic increase in totals, so the best thing I can do is warn you of the possibility and tell you to not be surprised if you end up with 16” of snow off a 5-10” or 3-6” forecast. As we start to see the band develop tomorrow, we’ll let you know where it’s forming and who can expect to see higher totals as a result. That said, the net impact will be similar regardless of how much snow you get; travel conditions tomorrow will be difficult and I expect most schools in the state to be closed.
Here’s the NAM’s representation of the fronto band – it places the heavy snows in or just east of the I91 corridor, while other guidance is further east over Tolland/Middlesex counties or even further west in the route 7 corridor. We’ll see where it ends up!
With the movement of the storm westward comes gustier winds; while winds shouldn’t hit the level required to cause widespread power outages and most of the weak trees/infrastructure got taken down by the previous two storms, I wouldn’t be surprised to see isolated to scattered power outages/damage as a result of the wind and heavy snow. Best chance for that will be in eastern areas.
Here’s the revised SCW impact scale for this event.
Thank you for trusting SCW with your forecast for this storm and enjoy the snow!