A strong coastal storm is expected to impact the state on Wednesday and a significant winter weather event is expected as a result. This discussion provides both an overview of the system and our first call map – look for a final call tomorrow night!
Models and Trends
All guidance is in good agreement that low pressure moving into the lakes is then forced to redevelop to our south due to a strong –NAO block. The system then moves northeast and passes just south of Long Island, strengthening in the process and developing a classic comma head signature. Eventually, the system moves almost due north and moves into the Gulf of Maine, but by then the damage has been done and we’ve seen a significant amount of QPF. Here’s a look at the evolution of the system on the 3km NAM – note that this is one of the colder solutions.
Here’s a look at total QPF from the GFS, NAM, and GGEM; the Euro is generally very similar to the GGEM.
Forecast & Timing
Here’s our forecast snow map for this event.
As far as timing goes, expect the first flakes to start in the SW corner before the morning commute on Wednesday, with snow becoming steadier and heavier throughout the morning. The heaviest snowfall will be Wednesday afternoon into the evening commute, where we could see rates in excess of 1” per hour at times. At the same time, however, we will see the rain/snow line start to move inland, limiting snow totals in the southeastern portion of the state. As the changeover should occur during the heaviest period of snow, even a small change in the timing of the changeover could lead to a difference of several inches in the final totals. We’ll make sure to keep an eye on the timing of that line and will try to nail it down with more detail tomorrow. Otherwise, precipitation continues through the evening and well into the overnight, with the GFS even keeping some final flakes around for the morning commute on Thursday. While the morning commute on Wednesday will likely be tolerable, conditions will deteriorate rapidly as we head into Wednesday afternoon and I expect the evening commute to be a mess, to put it lightly. If you can work from home Wednesday, I’d recommend you do so.
Here’s the SCW impact scale for this event.
All in all, we’re looking at a classic late-season Nor’easter, featuring heavy precipitation, a dynamic rain/snow line, and some gusty winds as well. Nothing we haven’t seen before, but still a high-impact event that demands attention. We’ll be back tomorrow with a final call and a more detailed timeline, until then, please ask us any and all questions you have here or on our social channels, and make sure to share this discussion with your family and friends. Thank you for trusting SCW!