Currently a surface flow from the northeast is converging with an upper level flow from the southwest, and as a result this convergence is creating storms across the state. NWS data shows very high precipitable water values that max out near the coastline, as well as moderate CAPE values. These clusters of rain and embedded thunderstorms will favor the coastline and the eastern portion of the state now, and eventually the rest of the state this evening.
For your commute home tonight, be aware of the threat for flash floods and make sure to take it easy on the roads, especially if you are commuting along the coastline. The rain looks to continue late tonight and end early tomorrow morning, with the slight chance for passing showers tomorrow.
(Current radar for New England)
In terms of the near future, the upper level ridging that will keep Florence to our south will bring seasonal temperatures for us finally. As the rain moves out Thursday night, Friday into the whole weekend looks absolutely amazing. This weekend would be the perfect time to go apple picking or go to one of the many CT fairs across the state.
Next Week and Florence
Tuesday next week seems interesting. Models appear to just be picking this up, based on the latest model data. The Euro and GFS both indicate an upper level trough coming into the middle of the country, and picking up Florence and bringing her north and east. At this point though, Florence will most likely be tropical depression or a very weak low, and there is no serious threat to New England. But, this will impact our weather for the majority of next week, particularly after Monday. This would suggest rainy, humid weather for next week. At this point it is still very early to call, but models have just started to agree on this path for the system, so we will let you know if anything else changes.
Thursday: Chance for rain. Highs in the 70s. Humid. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s.
Saturday: Sunny. Beautiful, highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday: Sunny. Beautiful, highs in the uppers 70s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 70s.
Tuesday: Chance for showers. Highs in the upper 70s.
Thank you again for reading Southern Connecticut Weather, and enjoy your evening!