After reviewing todays model guidance and trends, we will be making some adjustments to our snowfall map for tonight into early tomorrow morning. Expect a revised map and discussion by 7 PM, with slightly higher totals in some areas. -SA
Previous discussion follows.
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today we had a mostly cloudy day with some showers across the state and dense fog early across the state but did enjoy some mild temperatures. Clear conditions across the state will prevail, and along with a north wind, the ingredients are there for temps to drop across the state, ranging from the upper 20s inland, to the low and mid 30s across the southern part of state. These colder temperatures will still be prevalent as we head to work and the kids head off to the bus stop tomorrow, so make sure you and the little ones bundle up.
Looking ahead through your day tomorrow, high temperatures should be 10-15 degrees colder than they were today, as highs will struggle to make it above the mid to upper 40s across the state. Early, skies will be clear to mostly sunny with clouds beginning to filter in during the mid to late afternoon. Here's a map with expected highs for tomorrow from the GFS model.
Along with this update we have our first call snowfall map. Across the board the models show atleast enough accumulated frozen precipitation, that we established enough confidence to make a preliminary snowfall forecast map. All major models from the Euro to the GFS through the Canadian GGEM and RGEM show enough about 1/10th to 1/4 of an inch of QPF in the form of snow. This disturbance will begin to strengthen into a stronger low to the east in the Atlantic, therefor, elevated areas in eastern and northeastern Connecticut will be favored as the "jackpot" area or places which look to get the most snow. Right now there do look to be some temperature issues at the surface levels of the atmosphere further south towards the shoreline, while the 850 mb level, or mid levels look to be right around freezing at the onset of precipitation, especially in southern Connecticut toward the shore. As precipitation intensity increases, temperatures will begin to drop and rain will steadily change over to snow in those southern areas. There is some question as to when that changeover will occur, the period from about 3-5 am looks like the most likely time for this changeover, while north of the parkway looks to be mostly or all snow depending on elevation and latitude. Precipitation will filter into the state by around the midnight hour and begin to shutoff across the state during the middle of Friday morning's rush hour.
All snow does look to be out of the state by the middle of Friday morning leaving cold air in its wake. Temperatures will only top out in the mid to upper 30s inland, and low 40s at the shore, with temperatures Friday night dropping into the 20s .
Here's the map, which is essentially a consensus blend of guidance, leaning slightly conservative to account for the fact that perhaps guidance has slightly overestimated the trend.
Have a good rest of your evening everyone! Stay tuned for more updates, and a possibly updated snowfall map tomorrow morning. - Tim