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Forecaster Discussion--2/17/20

2/17/2020

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Happy President's Day! For those of you that had the holiday off, I hope you had a good and relaxing day. Today was another beautiful and well above normal day temperature wise. As I alluded to yesterday, the week ahead is looking quiet, with the exception of tomorrow. Let's jump in. 
Picture
GFS Ensembles above showing a drier than normal period for the next seven days. 

Tuesday
Tomorrow may be the only day we see precipitation the rest of the week, as a disturbance passes well to our north. You know what that means...rain. While there may be a few flakes on the front end of this system as precipitation move in during the morning, we're expecting virtually all rain. This will be a quick mover, and certainly not a washout of a day, but it will be useful to have your umbrella handy. The rain should move out during the overnight hours. 
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Wednesday-Friday
The cloud cover may linger a bit, but Wednesday is looking like the start of a decent dry period. The thing that will be noticeable will be the temperature changes. Unlike our warm period (well, really the entire winter) we should see temperatures drop off as we get a cool shot. Thursday and Friday look like the coldest days, with highs struggling to reach freezing. It will likely be breezy as well, with northwest flow filtering in the cold air. 
Picture
GFS depiction of temperatures Thursday through Saturday. Note that our cold shot doesn't have a lot of staying power, as by Saturday we're back up near to above normal. 

Saturday-Monday
The period continues to look quiet, as I expect dry conditions and moderating temperatures. By next week, we're probably following our next system, but looking at the long range I am inclined to believe that any hope of significant wintry conditions will not visit us until we've reached March.

The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy, cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Monday: Increasing clouds and cooler. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​ 
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